The Arkansas State Red Wolves take on the Arkansas Razorbacks in Little Rock, Arkansas, on Saturday, Sept. 6. Kickoff is set for 5 p.m. ET on SEC Network+.
Arkansas is favored by -23.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -2800. The total is set at 62.5 points.
Here’s my Arkansas State vs. Arkansas prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 6.
Arkansas State vs Arkansas Prediction
- Arkansas State vs. Arkansas Pick: Over 62.5
My Arkansas vs. Arkansas State best bet is on both teams to go over the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Arkansas State vs Arkansas Odds
| Arkansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+23.5 -105 | 62.5 -110o / -110u | +1200 |
| Arkansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-23.5 -115 | 62.5 -110o / -110u | -2800 |
- Arkansas State vs Arkansas point spread: Arkansas -23.5, Arkansas State +23.5
- Arkansas State vs Arkansas over/under: 62.5
- Arkansas State vs Arkansas moneyline: Arkansas State +1200, Arkansas -2800.
Arkansas State vs Arkansas NCAAF Betting Preview
Arkansas State Red Wolves Betting Preview: Fragile on Defensive End
Arkansas State is coming off a dominant Week 1 performance against FCS opponent Southeast Missouri State. Two garbage-time touchdowns from the Redhawks made the 42-24 win look closer than it was.
Jaylen Raynor passed for 345 yards and three touchdowns, good for the seventh-best offensive PFF grade on the week. He was helped by an offensive line with an 87.6 PFF Pass Blocking Grade, seventh-best on the week.
However, their Run Blocking Grade left much to be desired, with just a 58.4 (81st in the country).
This disparity makes sense when looking at the key metrics for rushing and passing plays last week:
On the defensive side of the ball, the Red Wolves struggled a bit against the pass. Their Passing PPA Allowed, Passing Success Rate Allowed and Passing Explosiveness allowed were all in the bottom 50 in the country: 
The Red Wolves ranked 119th in Defensive TARP coming into the season, so some growing pains were expected.
However, after struggling against an FCS opponent, you don't want to see a top-10 offense from 2024 on the other side of the field (even if it's almost a whole new roster). Replenishing talent as an SEC school and a G5 school is a different task.
The most concerning stat to me is the fact that they ranked 90th in Points Per Opportunity Allowed. If SE Missouri State is dicing you up in the red zone, what's going to happen when Arkansas comes to town?
Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Preview: Running the Ball Main Problem for Hogs
The flagship school from the home of Walmart also kicked off their season against a powerhouse: FCS Alabama A&M.
And like Arkansas State, they put up a ton of points, winning 52-7. Quarterback Taylen Green was the highlight, passing for 322 yards and six touchdowns. He spread the wealth around, hitting five different Razorbacks for scores.
Green's 94.1 PFF grade was the second best on the week out of all QBs, and so many Arkansas players scoring has to be a sigh of relief for a squad replacing 94% of its receiving yards from last year.
Ironically, it struggled to run the ball — much like Arkansas State.
While the gaudy passing numbers are nice, they're expected against an FCS school. Being unable to run the ball consistently will come back to bite them if it carries over into SEC play.
Defensively, the Razorbacks were solid.
They played the field-position game well, giving the ball to their opponent on the 20. However, I really expect them to score a touchdown on almost every position in Arkansas State's territory. They were great at it last year, ranking 22nd in 2024.
I expect that to carry over, especially against a newer defense that struggled against an FCS school in Week 1.
Arkansas State vs Arkansas Pick, Betting Analysis
Overall, this is a super interesting matchup.
Ironically, these teams look pretty similar in terms of statistics as of now. However, I think Arkansas has too much firepower with Green under center to be stopped by this green Arkansas State defense.
The question is, how many points can Arkansas State score?
I think the Red Wolves can have some success through the air.
Raynor was essentially stagnant after a Sun Belt Freshman of the Year campaign. While he wasn't bad, he just didn't take a step forward in Year 2. A great way to take that first step in 2025 would be to have a good day against Arkansas.
The Razorbacks defense is the wild card to me. Because I think Arkansas State will be able to move the ball and score on Arkansas, I like the over here.
Look for a fun matchup as Green and Raynor duke it out for the title of best quarterback in Arkansas.
Pick: Over 62.5
