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Thursday. Night. Football.
Thursday's NFL game between the Carolina Panthers and Green Bay Packers isn't the only action on the gridiron tonight. In fact, we have three college football games on the docket as well.
Our staff broke down all three games — North Texas vs. FAU, James Madison vs. Troy and Morgan State vs. South Carolina State in the FCS — and came through with a pick for each.
With so much action to get to, let's dive into their Thursday college football predictions and NCAAF picks for October 29.
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Thursday College Football Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Thursday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Morgan State vs. South Carolina State Pick
By Joshua Nunn
This line opened up with South Carolina State listed as a 4.5-point favorite with a total set at 51.5. The Bulldogs took a little action on the opener and are now listed as 6.5-point favorites. I'm willing to lay the number with SC State here.
SC State quarterback Keely Watson is an excellent pocket passer, and the offensive line has held up well in pass protection this year. Watson will have time to throw the ball, and the Bulldog receivers are going to register explosive plays.
We'll see SC State run the football, and while the explosives won't be there on the ground, early-down success will be had.
This will allow the Bulldogs to remain in manageable distances on third down, where they're converting 45% this season. The Bears have allowed 45% third-down conversions on defense, so getting SC State off the field on third down regularly could be a problem here.
Morgan State has been outgained in five of its six games against FCS competition this season despite racking up wins. The offense is improved, but the performance the last two weeks has been extremely concerning.
The Bears have gone long stretches offensively without being able to move the football, and the offensive line could struggle here in the trenches against the Havoc-minded Bulldogs.
Morgan State has been terrible in the red zone offensively this season, scoring just eight red-zone touchdowns in 17 trips against FCS competition, including just two touchdowns in seven trips the last three weeks.
The Bears have also been a very heavily penalized team this year, with eight or more accepted penalties against them in every game this season.
The undisciplined play directly cost Morgan State against Howard, and mistakes and penalties could pile up for the Bears.
SC State is the better team here, and this group looked fresh off the bye week last week against Norfolk State. The Bulldogs are the best team in the MEAC, and I think we get a great showing from them on the road on Thursday night.
Pick: South Carolina State -6.5
| | |
North Texas vs. Florida Atlantic Pick
By RoadToCFB
Welcome back, real and respectable college football.
This game features an all-American total that would make the mid-2010s MAC and Big 12 cry: 77.5. That number has flown through the roof after opening at 65.5, and almost no action has bumped it down throughout the week.
North Texas fell as low as -10.5 but has rebounded to -13.5, its opening mark.
For those looking to get involved on the total in any way besides under — team total, derivative or otherwise — that ship has long sailed.
This is a massive game for North Texas. The university canceled classes after noon Thursday in an attempt to break the program's student attendance record and sell out DATCU Stadium.
Both teams play on short rest, having each played a game Saturday, and both come off playing option offenses.
There's an opportunity to play under some points here, but we're really rolling the dice the more gameplay we rely on. Instead, I'm looking for an early and immediate cash as a juiced DATCU Stadium makes itself known.
Even in games that came unraveled (see: at Tulsa), North Texas liked to take the air out of the football early. In games where the first quarter was high-scoring, it was aided by multiple short fields and a road game against Texas State's Brad Jackson.
The second quarter has been downright insane for North Texas on both fronts all season, averaging 24.4 points per game in that frame.
FAU's offense isn't unstoppable. It fell to 24 points on the road at Army two weeks ago and was held to just 16 at home against FIU in Week 3.
Outside of a game at FBS bottom-feeder ULM, we haven't seen this unit travel well — in fact, we haven't seen FAU travel well at all.
Pick: 1Q Under 16.5 (-105 or Better)
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James Madison vs. Troy Pick
By Joshua Nunn
This line opened with James Madison listed as an 18.5-point favorite, and JMU has taken money, pushing this line out to -20.5. The total has come down from 52 on the opener to where it currently sits at 49.5. Lay the number with the Dukes.
Schematically, this is a bad matchup for Troy.
The Trojans' offense has been terrible at throwing the football, as both Goose Crowder and Tucker Kilcrease are wildly inconsistent. Outside of receiver TK Keyes, Troy has very little explosiveness in its downfield passing attack.
Troy’s offensive line is still playing poorly, and the Trojans allow Havoc and negative plays at a rate that puts them 117th nationally in Havoc allowed.
The Dukes' defensive line will create pressure on the quarterback and force quicker decisions. That will throw off the timing of the veer-and-shoot system.
Troy’s offensive system is predicated on being able to run the football with RPO options down the seams or out to the sideline.
When the Trojans can't run the ball efficiently, the system doesn’t work as intended. Those problems are going to compound against JMU in this game.
The Dukes boast the best run defense in the conference, and you can expect the rushing output for Troy to be low, creating long distances on third downs.
JMU is the stronger team, and the Dukes have played a significantly harder conference schedule up to this point. Troy will struggle to move the football in this matchup, and the defense won't hold up for four quarters in this game.
Lay the number as James Madison bounces back at home.
Pick: JMU -20.5
