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The Florida Atlantic Owls take on the North Texas Mean Green in Denton, Texas, on Thursday, Oct. 29. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
North Texas is favored by -13.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -520. FAU, meanwhile, enters as a +13.5 underdog and is +420 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 76.5 total points.
Here’s my FAU vs. North Texas prediction and college football pick for Thursday, October 29.
FAU vs North Texas Prediction
- FAU vs. North Texas Pick: 1Q Under 16.5 (-105 or Better)
My North Texas vs. FAU best bet is on the first-quarter under. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
FAU vs North Texas Odds
| FAU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -105 | 76.5 -115o / -105u | +420 |
| North Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -115 | 76.5 -115o / -105u | -520 |
- FAU vs North Texas point spread: North Texas -13.5 (-115), FAU +13.5 (-105)
- FAU vs North Texas over/under: 76.5 (-115o / -105u)
- FAU vs North Texas moneyline: FAU +420, North Texas -520
FAU vs North Texas College Football Preview
Florida Atlantic Owls Betting Preview: Ground Problem
FAU was a team many tabbed in the offseason as poised for a breakout.
Turns out, those notions were correct, and FAU stands 5-2 after eight weeks of play. One more win breaks its bowl drought dating back to 2020 and gives FAU its best record since 2019 under Lane Kiffin.
But this isn't an impenetrable team, particularly on defense. So far, FAU has played three option teams (Navy, Army and Rice) and surrendered 136 points, plus another 66 to run-heavy Florida.
In each of the last two weeks, the Owls were run flat over, allowing 106 points and 966 yards on the ground — yes, really. The body blow theory after playing option teams is real, but this team can't defend the run worth a darn.
A top-30 scoring offense is almost completely offset by a bottom-10 scoring defense. For FAU over bettors, the year's been good (6-1 to the closing over), but this type of play may not be sustainable, as demonstrated by the last two weeks.
There won't be many games this year in which defense wins this team games, though the early-season Shula Bowl ended in a 16-10 victory over rival FIU.
Quarterback Caden Veltkamp leads the charge in what's a predictably potent offense. Head coach Zach Kittley has done nothing but churn out yards and points in his career, and this stop is no different.
Veltkamp is a top-15 passer in yards and top-10 in touchdowns so far this year while minimizing the interceptions (four) and keeping his completion rate high despite a respectable 8.6 air yards per attempt.
Now, FAU must deal with its toughest part of the schedule with little opportunity for rest. Three of its final five games come on the road, and its next two come against the top two teams in the American in North Texas and UTSA.
North Texas Mean Green Betting Preview: Scoring Machine
I have to confess that my preseason appraisal of North Texas was way off.
Head coach Neal Brown has a long track record of success in the non-power conferences, and that success is rubbing off right away on a UNT team that completely flipped its roster.
No program regression inbound; the Mean Green are a force in the American yet again.
Quarterback Tayven Jackson has been spectacular, posting top-10 national numbers in yards, touchdowns, completion percentage and yards per attempt. Only Miami has a more efficient offense in the country.
UNT has scored 45-plus in every game since Week 4, 40-plus in all but one game since Week 2 and 35-plus in every game except one (at Indiana in Week 1).
Aside from a shocking 44-6 result against UNLV, North Texas' defense has been spotty.
Against overmatched competition (Houston Christian, Charlotte), it's been fine. But against any competition with a pulse (Texas State, Tulsa, Navy), UNT hasn't been able to keep opponents from scoring.
Its 33.7% touchdown rate allowed on opposing drives ranks 110th nationally, though a ridiculous 46.8% offensive touchdown rate offsets that, and UNT moves to 5-2.
The main defensive issue comes in giving up way too many explosive plays, especially through the air.
The front six is fine — defensive end Davion Rhodes and linebacker Zakye Barker are playing at an all-conference level — but the secondary is far too leaky, made worse by the loss of cornerback Caden Jenkins before the season started.
It's not a deep unit, even though nine defensive backs have logged 110-plus snaps.
FAU vs North Texas Pick, Betting Analysis
Welcome back, real and respectable college football.
This game features an all-American total that would make the mid-2010s MAC and Big 12 cry: 77.5. That number has flown through the roof after opening at 65.5, and almost no action has bumped it down throughout the week.
North Texas fell as low as -10.5 but has rebounded to -13.5, its opening mark.
For those looking to get involved on the total in any way besides under — team total, derivative or otherwise — that ship has long sailed.
This is a massive game for North Texas. The university canceled classes after noon Thursday in an attempt to break the program's student attendance record and sell out DATCU Stadium.
Both teams play on short rest, having each played a game Saturday, and both come off playing option offenses.
There's an opportunity to play under some points here, but we're really rolling the dice the more gameplay we rely on. Instead, I'm looking for an early and immediate cash as a juiced DATCU Stadium makes itself known.
Even in games that came unraveled (see: at Tulsa), North Texas liked to take the air out of the football early. In games where the first quarter was high-scoring, it was aided by multiple short fields and a road game against Texas State's Brad Jackson.
The second quarter has been downright insane for North Texas on both fronts all season, averaging 24.4 points per game in that frame.
FAU's offense isn't unstoppable. It fell to 24 points on the road at Army two weeks ago and was held to just 16 at home against FIU in Week 3.
Outside of a game at FBS bottom-feeder ULM, we haven't seen this unit travel well — in fact, we haven't seen FAU travel well at all.
Pick: 1Q Under 16.5 (-105 or Better)
FAU vs North Texas Betting Trends
