The Arkansas State Red Wolves take on the Memphis Tigers in Memphis, TN. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Memphis is favored by 11.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -480. The total is set at 52.5 points.
Here’s my Arkansas State vs. Memphis prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 5, 2026.
Arkansas State vs Memphis Prediction
- Arkansas State vs. Memphis Pick: 1H Under 27.5 or Better
My Memphis vs. Arkansas State best bet is on the first-half Under. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Arkansas State vs Memphis Odds
| Arkansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -110 | 52.5 -112o / -108u | +360 |
| Memphis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -110 | 52.5 -112o / -108u | -480 |
- Arkansas State vs Memphis point spread: Memphis -11.5 (-110), Arkansas State +11.5 (-110)
- Arkansas State vs Memphis over/under: 52.5 (-112 / -108)
- Arkansas State vs Memphis moneyline: Arkansas State +360, Memphis -480
Arkansas State vs Memphis Preview
Arkansas State Red Wolves Betting Preview
From 2011-2019, Arkansas State averaged 8.1 wins per season.
After a couple of very lean years, the Red Wolves are 21-18 over the past three seasons, earning three straight bowl appearances and winning two of them.
While Butch Jones has re-established them as a consistent winner, this season, the Red Wolves enter the year eyeing the Sun Belt Championship.
This offseason, Arkansas State had a quarterback battle that was close enough that Jones has declined to name a Week 1 starter. Sophomore Texas transfer Trey Owens has been perceived as the favorite, though Ethan Crawford is the only one of the group that has college experience after making five starts at Southern Miss.
The winner of the battle will have a quality supporting cast.
The Red Wolves return their top backs from last season, Kenyon Clay and Devin Spencer, though Spencer will miss some time following an offseason knee injury. Clay received preseason first-team All-Sun Belt honors, and a few games as the unquestioned lead back may help him get there by season's end.
He will run behind an experienced offensive line that returns five of its top seven linemen from a year ago while adding four transfers and two JUCOs.
Clay and Spencer each caught 25 passes last season and give the team four returning pass catchers with 25 receptions along with Chauncey Cobb and Hunter Summers. Cobb led the way with 73 receptions for 797 yards.
There are just three returning starters (defensive backs AG McGhee, Brandon Barnes, and Brandon Greil) on defense, but that may not be a bad thing as the Red Wolves allowed over 400 yards per game. McGhee and Barnes form one of the top safety tandems in the Sun Belt, but they were not enough to prevent Arkansas State from allowing 245 passing yards per game while getting torched by some of the passing attacks on its schedule.
Jones brought in 17 transfers just on that side of the ball.
Five Hamilton and Noah Flores should give the group a solid pair of corners.
However, the biggest improvement may be in the defensive tackle room, which added Elias Sherman, Sultan Badmus, Tyeland Coleman and Shakai Woods. Sherman had 10 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks at Maine last season. While that should help Arkansas State improve its run defense, the group will also be needed to replace a unit that recorded 39 sacks last season.
Memphis Tigers Betting Preview
Since 2014, Memphis has been one of the most successful Group of Six head programs despite three different head coaches in that span.
If Week 0 was any indication, Memphis will not be going away under Charles Huff. Last week, the Tigers went to Las Vegas and knocked off UNLV 27-21. In the process, they knocked off one of their top challengers for the Group of Six's berth in the CFP, and they will get the chance to defeat Boise State next week.
The Tigers had a balanced attack as they nearly had 200 yards on the ground and through the air.
After winning an offseason quarterback battle with Air Noland, Marcus Stokes proved the jump from West Florida was not too much for him, as he threw for 223 yards and two touchdowns in his first start. He leads the way for a very different Memphis team from a season ago.
Between players following Ryan Silverfield to Arkansas and 12 Southern Miss players following Huff, Memphis has brought in 53 transfers, including 17 from Southern Miss. The lack of continuity was not an issue last week, as each of their touchdowns was scored by a transfer.
They had a bend-but-don't-break approach defensively, as UNLV had 460 yards, but went 3-for-15 on third down and 2-for-5 on fourth down. The Tigers still caused plenty of disruption with 11 tackles for loss and six sacks.
Unfortunately for them, Jackson Arnold will not be running into sacks every week, but J'Mond Tapp leads a deep defensive line that will wreak havoc most weeks.
Tapp was the lone Group of Five player on Bruce Feldman's Annual "Freaks" list, and he had 7.5 sacks last season and recorded his first of the season last week. West Virginia transfer Elijah Kinsler had a career game with the first 2.5 sacks of his career in addition to eight tackles.
Memphis has leaned heavy to the offensive side in recent years, but if the Tigers can cause this much Havoc, they may be in for a special season.
Arkansas State vs Memphis Pick, Betting Analysis
Last season, Arkansas State scored 17 points or fewer four times and 21 points or fewer six times. Now, the Wolves have a new starting quarterback, which may cause some jerky offense as everyone builds cohesion and continuity.
Meanwhile, Memphis has had a game under its belt to work out the kinks with a new group, but it scored just seven points in the first half, and the game had 21 points in the first half in total. If its defensive line dominates the way it did, it should have the edge against the Red Wolves' offense.
Additionally, first-half unders have been extremely profitable early in the season. That continued in Week 0, including Memphis' game against UNLV.
Pick: 1H Under 27.5 or Better
