Arkansas State vs Oklahoma Odds & Prediction | Your Saturday Betting Guide
Photo by Brian Bahr/Getty Images. Pictured: Brent Venables (Oklahoma)
Arkansas State vs Oklahoma Odds
| Arkansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+36.5 -110 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | +2000 |
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-36.5 -110 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | -10000 |
After reigning over the Big 12 for years, the Oklahoma Sooners took a small step back in 2022 under new head coach Brent Venables. Venables will now look to get the program to rebound and save his job.
This will start with hosting Butch Jones’ Arkansas State Red Wolves in Week 1. Oklahoma is a heavy favorite and should take care of business easily, but it's yet to be seen how hard it'll stomp on the gas.
Here’s a look at the odds, as well as our pick and prediction for the Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. the Oklahoma Sooners.
Jones’ time in Jonesboro hasn't been kind to him. Over the last two seasons, Arkansas State has a combined record of 5-19.
The Red Wolves are once again projected to finish towards the bottom of the Sun Belt, and Jones may be battling to keep his job.
In 2022, Arkansas State ranked 124th in Offensive Success Rate. It was entirely ineffective when rushing the ball, ranking 129th in FBS in Rushing Success Rate.
Just five starters return for the Red Wolves this season on offense.
The new quarterback will be J.T. Shrout, who's transferring over from Colorado. Starting his career at Tennessee, Shrout has been less than impressive in both stops. Last year was his biggest opportunity to start games yet, but he threw for just 1,220 yards across nine outings with seven touchdowns and eight interceptions while completing only 44.3% of his passes.
Things will be tough for Shrout, as only one of Arkansas State’s top five receivers from a year ago will be back. In a game that the Red Wolves will likely be playing from behind in, I wouldn't expect things to go well for Shrout.
Defense has also been an issue for Arkansas State. In 2022, it was 78th in Success Rate but 131st in Finishing Drives. The Red Wolves were also 91st in Rushing Success Rate, which will play into the game script this week.
Six starters return on the defensive side, mostly in the secondary. Overall, the Red Wolves are 88th in the country in net returning production.
Last year’s Oklahoma Sooners offense wasn't what we had come to expect in Norman. They were a respectable 38th in Offensive Success Rate, but just 77th in Explosiveness. Under offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby, the Sooners ran the ball at the 33rd-highest rate in the country and with the 32nd-best Success Rate.
Losing top back Eric Gray will be a big loss, but they return every other top rusher from last year’s squad. Oklahoma will also return four of its top five linemen and quarterback Dillon Gabriel.
In the passing game, Lebby will have to find a No. 1 wideout to make up for the loss of Marvin Mims, but the magnitude of that loss will likely not be felt this weekend due to the positive game script the Sooners should be in.
The defense returns six starters, but the unit is being transformed more towards Venables’ ideal defense. Overall, Oklahoma has brought in 18 transfer players in just this offseason.
The 2022 defense is not what we would typically expect from a Venables-led unit. Oklahoma ranked 88th in Defensive Success Rate, including 81st against the run and 96th through the air.
I would expect Oklahoma to take a step forward defensively this season, but it remains to be seen how big of a step that will be. Luckily for the Sooners, Arkansas State should provide a nice way to ease this new-look unit into action.
Arkansas State vs Oklahoma
Betting Pick & Prediction
Arkansas State just doesn't have what it takes to keep up with Oklahoma offensively. Shrout hasn't yet shown he can be a competent starting quarterback at the FBS level, and while Oklahoma’s defense is going through a bit of a rebuild, it should still stifle the Red Wolves’ offense.
I don’t have many concerns about the Oklahoma offense here. Arkansas State’s defense is weak and the Sooners return most of their squad from last season. I would expect Oklahoma to stick primarily to the ground game, bleeding the clock and the life out of Arkansas State.
I believe that the total — which is currently set at 58.5 points — is a touch too high. I project this game to be closer to 55, and SP+ has it at 56. The new clock rules may provide a slight bump in my favor as well and certainly won’t hurt.
I’ll be taking the under here, as Arkansas State will be lucky to get into the double-digits.
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