Auburn at Georgia Odds & Pick: Ride the Hot Hand with Auburn, or Bet Bulldogs to Bounce Back? (Saturday, Oct. 3)
Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images. Pictured: Bo Nix.
- JT Daniels could see his first action for the Georgia Bulldogs as they host the Auburn Tigers in a heavily-anticipated SEC matchup.
- While Daniels could help the Bulldogs' offense take off, it could take some time for him to ease into things — if he's even the quarterback who ends up starting.
- Collin Wilson analyzes the game and shares a pick with updated odds below.
Auburn at Georgia Betting Odds
|Auburn Odds||+7.5 [BET NOW]|
|Georgia Odds||-7.5 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||+260/-340 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||43.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||7:30 p.m. ET|
The Georgia-Auburn series is best described as aberrant. The Prayer at Jordan-Hare in 2013 leads the way in a rivalry that displays plenty of future NFL talent and wild scoring swings. We should expect no less when Bo Nix faces the Georgia defense.
Check out our new NCAAF PRO Report, where we highlight factors that provide betting edges — like large wagers, historically profitable betting systems, model projections and expert picks — that when combined with sharp money can powerfully detail the smartest bets on a given slate.
Auburn quarterback Bo Nix and his all-star cast of wide receivers will go toe-to-toe against Georgia’s back-seven. Seth Williams had 12 targets and six receptions for 112 yards and two touchdowns against Kentucky. Georgia’s ability to detect Nix post-snap is crucial, because 6-of-12 passes to Williams came through play action.
Anthony Schwartz and Eli Stove combined for five screen-pass targets, but Williams will be the primary focus after torching the Bulldogs for 13 receptions and 121 yards in 2019.
USC transfer quarterback JT Daniels has been medically cleared and is expected to play in this game. It’s difficult to know with certainty what we might get out of Daniels in his first action as a Georgia Bulldog. He was featured in a pass-heavy offense in 2018 with the Trojans, but Georgia’ s offensive philosophy is a far cry from Southern Cal’s.
Stetson Bennett and D’Wan Mathis took all the snaps against Arkansas but failed to produce a single explosive drive. The results in Fayetteville are not what new offensive coordinator Todd Monken had in mind for the Bulldogs’ attack.
In reality, Georgia’s defense and special teams collected 360 hidden yards from Arkansas. That was the result of average starting field position at the 41-yard line and two kickoff returns averaging 45.5 yards.
Whether Bennett, Mathis or Daniels gets the start, the Auburn defense will be ready for the rush-heavy Bulldogs. The Tigers stuffed 13 of 38 runs and allowed zero explosive drives against Kentucky.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Arkansas knew the way to pick at Georgia’s defense was via the play-action pass. Wide receiver Treylon Burks racked up 11 targets, eight of which came on play-action passes. Nine different Razorbacks were targeted off play action against the Bulldogs defense. Any college football DFS player would gladly pay the price tag on Seth Williams breaking loose during this game.
Chad Morris and Gus Malzahn will do whatever it takes to set up the play-action pass to Seth Williams later in the game. A few disguised runs and screens to Schwartz and Stove should distract the Georgia secondary early as the Tigers set up their most advantageous moment to pounce.
Georgia’s offensive game plan may be a rush-heavy offense to break in Daniels in passing downs. It may take several drives before Daniels is sufficiently familiar with WR George Pickens’ tendencies and decision-making. Furthermore, Daniels’ conditioning may have an expiration of just a few drives.
Our Action Network projection makes Georgia -5.5, showing slight value on Auburn at the current number. The total is a bit shy of our estimated 48.5, but there may be some value in playing a first-half under while hunting for a live over.
The Bet: First-Half Under 22.5