Northern Illinois vs Ball State Odds, Prediction: Spread Bet to Make

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Our first week of midweek MACtion did not disappoint in providing all of the beauty and magic we expect on Tuesday nights. It was snowing, it was windy, there was nobody in the stands, there were missed field goals galore, and of course, there was beautifully bad football.

Ball State won the MAC in 2020 but has taken a step back in the last three seasons. The Cardinals went 6-7 in 2021, 5-7 in 2022 and are just 2-7 in what has been a disappointing campaign in 2023. Injuries have crushed this team, but it continues to fight, covering the spread in three straight.

Northern Illinois has one of the most experienced quarterbacks in the country, and Thomas Hammock always has a good running back. The Huskies started the year with a win on the road at Boston College before losing four straight games, including a home matchup against FCS Southern Illinois.

NIU has bounced back in conference play, winning three of its last four games. But of its nine games, seven of them have been decided by 10 points or less.

So, is this spread too many points on Tuesday night? Let's dive into the Ball State vs. NIU odds and find a pick and prediction for Tuesday, Nov. 7.

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Rocky Lombardi is attempting to become the first college football player ever to earn academic tenure. He has taken the Van Wilder approach, currently in his seventh year in college after four years at Michigan State and three at Northern Illinois.

Lombardi has played 48 college games, and while some things get better with age, it’s safe to say Lombardi has reached his ceiling. The Clive, Iowa, native has thrown nine touchdown passes with five interceptions this year.

Just like the Cardinals, Northern Illinois lost its top receiver in Kacper Rutkiewicz, forcing Trayvon Rudolph to step up.

Hammond wants his team to have a run-first mindset. The former NIU running back has had a strong running game ever since returning to his alma mater.

With Harrison Waylee transferring to Wyoming, Antario Brown has taken over the bell-cow role. He's averaging 93.7 yards per game with seven touchdowns and ranks second in the MAC with 6.2 yards per carry.

The strength of this Northern Illinois team has been its pass defense. The Huskies sit 19th in the country in Passing Success Rate on defense and sixth at preventing explosiveness through the air.

Safety Nate Valcarcel leads the team with three interceptions, and cornerback Javaughn Byrd has been a lock-down player in coverage.

Stopping the run has been another story.

The Huskies rank just 110th in Success Rate against the run and have allowed over 167 rushing yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry. Kent State is the only team in the conference that has allowed more than the 18 rushing touchdowns Northern Illinois has surrendered.

The Cardinals’ quarterback rotation has been a mess. Veteran Layne Hatcher started the season under center but was eventually replaced by Kadin Semonza. After Semonza decided to redshirt, sophomore Kiael Kelly got the nod.

It has not been an easy task for any of the quarterbacks with star tight end Brady Hunt and No. 1 receiver Ty Robinson both going down with season-ending injuries. The offense has struggled to get anything going through the air, ranking 116th in Passing Success Rate.

What Kelly adds that the other options did not is his rushing upside. Kelly is a run-first quarterback, turning this offense into a read-option scheme. Over the last four games, Kelly has 347 yards and four touchdowns on the ground.

He's paired with star running back Marquez Cooper, who was an All-MAC running back with Kent State in 2022. He averages 75 yards per game this year but has gone for 252 yards in his last two contests.

Defensively, the Cardinals had to replace a ton of talent in the secondary, losing three defensive backs signed to NFL rosters. It was expected that the group would take a step back, and it's really struggled in coverage this season, ranking outside of the top 100 in Success Rate against the pass.

This unit has been better against the run, though.

Despite losing star linebacker Clayton Coll to a season-ending injury, this linebacker corps has some talent led by Keionte Newson and Cole Pearce. Ball State ranks second in the MAC in rushing defense, allowing 121 yards on the ground per game.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Ball State and Northern Illinois match up statistically:

Ball State Offense vs Northern Illinois Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	84	110
Line Yards	35	120
Pass Success	116	16
Havoc	129	130
Finishing Drives	116	88
Quality Drives	94	42

Northern Illinois Offense vs Ball State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	54	71
Line Yards	61	79
Pass Success	87	97
Havoc	83	103
Finishing Drives	120	76
Quality Drives	72	111

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	56	39
PFF Coverage	109	27
Special Teams SP+	113	48
Middle 8	87	30
Seconds per Play	29.4 (111)	28.6 (96)
Rush Rate	57.1% (44)	52.9% (68)

This line is too high, as this should be a great matchup for Ball State.

Northern Illinois has been tremendous at defending the pass. The only problem is the Cardinals have abandoned the pass and are basically running the option.

In three starts, Kelly has attempted just 51 total passes while running the ball 53 times. He has more rushing yards than passing yards this season.

The one-two punch of Kelly and Cooper should find success against a Huskies defense that has really struggled to stop the run.

Last week against Central Michigan, we saw a very similar offensive attack torch Northern Illinois for 331 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. Running back Marion Lukes had 202 yards and a score, while quarterback Jase Bauer scrambled for 106 yards and two touchdowns. Expect Ball State to follow that same blueprint in this one.

The Cardinals’ biggest weakness has been their passing defense, but Northern Illinois is at its best when it runs the ball. In the Huskies' four wins, Lombardi has been held under 200 yards passing each time.

Northern Illinois plays a style of football that tends to lead to close games. Both of these teams play extremely slow and want to keep the ball on the ground, which makes it harder for anybody to pull away.

This is a good matchup for the Cardinals, and the read option led by Kelly and Cooper should find enough success to get Ball State the cover here.

Pick: Ball State +10.5 (Play to +10)