The Ball State Cardinals take on the UConn Huskies in East Hartford, Conn. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. EDT on CBS Sports Network.
UConn is favored by 21 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1400. The total is set at 53.5 points.
Here’s my Ball State vs. UConn prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 20, 2025.
Ball State vs UConn Prediction
- Ball State vs. UConn Pick: UConn -21 or Better
My UConn vs. Ball State best bet is on the Huskies to cover. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Ball State vs UConn Odds
| Ball State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+21 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | +850 |
| UConn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-21 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | -1400 |
- Ball State vs UConn point spread: UConn -21 (-110), Ball State +21 (-110)
- Ball State vs UConn over/under: 53.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Ball State vs UConn moneyline: Ball State +850, UConn -1400
Ball State vs UConn Pick, Betting Analysis
The Huskies have been snake-bitten so far this season, with back-to-back road losses in overtime (against Syracuse and Delaware) after leading in the final minute of regulation in both. They could easily be sitting at 3-0.
Now, they get to come home and take out their frustrations on a bad Ball State ball club that will be playing its third road game in four weeks, with the other two coming against Auburn and Purdue.
The Cardinals, who picked up their first win of the season last week by five at home over FCS New Hampshire, are probably dying to get to their bye week before hosting Ohio to start MAC play.
Additionally, this is just a great matchup on both sides of the ball for UConn.
The Huskies feature an electric passing attack led by quarterback Joe Fagnano and star wide receiver Skyler Bell. Those two spearhead an aerial assault that ranks in the top 10 nationally in EPA per Pass and Pass Success Rate.
That's precisely how you want to attack the Ball State defense, which has some solid pass rushers, but is simply void of talent on the back end at both linebacker and safety. That group ranks in the bottom 15 nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed, while allowing opposing quarterbacks to combine for 71-for-107 passing (66.4%) for 870 yards with six touchdowns and no interceptions — and that includes a home game against New Hampshire.
The Cardinals attempt to compensate for their lack of secondary talent by preventing explosive plays, but Fagnano will happily pick them apart underneath.
I don't see how Ball State gets any stops outside of maybe a few random sacks, but the UConn pass protection has been outstanding to start the year, even after losing two stud tackles.
So, the question becomes, can Ball State's offense score enough points to keep up or at least stay within this number? I highly doubt it.
The Cardinals have a miserable run-first offense led by Kiael Kelly, who converted back to quarterback after moving to wide receiver last season. They can't throw the ball with passing outputs of 87, 71, and 105 yards in their first three games.
That's not ideal against a Huskies' defense that has some weakness at the cornerback position, which Delaware exploited last week in Newark. UConn defensive coordinator Matt Brock is extremely underrated in terms of devising unique game plans tailored to each opponent on a weekly basis. I fully expect him to have his guys ready to load the box and take away the Ball State rushing attack, leaving them essentially helpless.
My one concern (besides potential UConn fatigue following two heartbreaking overtime losses) would be Ball State eating up clock to limit possessions, which makes covering three touchdowns a bit more of an arduous task.
Still, this is too good a spot and matchup to pass up.
Plus, UConn does have a competent backup quarterback if this one gets out of hand, which could help limit the chances of a potential backdoor.
I project the Huskies as 23-point favorites.
Pick: UConn -21 or Better
Ball State vs UConn Betting Trends
