The Ball State Cardinals take on the Western Michigan Broncos in Kalamazoo, Michigan. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Western Michigan is favored by 8.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -320. The total is set at 43 points.
Here’s my Ball State vs. Western Michigan prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 11, 2025.
Ball State vs W. Michigan Prediction
- Ball State vs. Western Michigan Pick: Ball State ML (+260, bet365)
My Western Michigan vs. Ball State best bet is on the Cardinals ML. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Ball State vs Western Michigan Odds
| Ball State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 43 -110o / -110u | +260 |
| W. Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 43 -110o / -110u | -320 |
- Ball State vs Western Michigan point spread: Western Michigan -8.5
- Ball State vs Western Michigan over/under: 43 points
- Ball State vs Western Michigan moneyline: Ball State +260, Western Michigan -320
Ball State vs Western Michigan Pick
It’s taken a bit of time for Mike Uremovich to install his offense, but Ball State has looked far more competent lately.
The passing attack has found some life with quarterback Kiael Kelly, and the Cardinals have covered in three consecutive games.
The defense has also looked better, as the Cardinals shut down Ohio in the second half of last week’s game.
I believe that Ball State can keep this game airtight and close. But I think the Cardinals can win this game outright because Western Michigan’s offense is struggling.
The Broncos upset Toledo, but they haven’t really moved the ball. They rank 131st nationally in Success Rate, Offensive Finishing Drives, and Havoc allowed.
A few weeks ago, against UMass, Western Michigan’s first six drives resulted in a fumble, punt, touchdown, missed field goal, punt, and punt.
Meanwhile, Ball State has 15 sacks and 33 tackles for loss on the season. The Cardinals got to Parker Navarro last week, sacking him four times. They should disrupt Broc Lowry and Western Michigan’s attack on Saturday.
Even better, Ball State’s defense has improved significantly against the run as the season has progressed. We haven’t seen as many back-breaking, explosive rushes over the past few weeks.
Meanwhile, Western Michigan doesn’t have much pop in the run game. The Broncos’ leading rusher is their quarterback, and top running back Jalen Buckley is only averaging 3.3 yards per carry behind an offensive line that ranks second-to-last among MAC teams in PFF’s Run Block grades.
At the minimum, I think this game will be super tight, and I’m banking on Kelly and the Cardinals making a few extra plays this week after building momentum over the past few weeks.
Pick: Ball State ML (+260, bet365)
