Baylor vs Oklahoma Odds, Picks: Betting Guide for Big 12 Battle
Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images. Pictured: Siaki Ika (Baylor)
Baylor vs Oklahoma Odds
After being two of the better teams in the conference over the past decade, both Baylor and Oklahoma have taken a step backwards this year.
The Sooners started off hot against weak opponents, but then dropped three games in a row to Kansas State, TCU and Texas.
Following the last two particularly embarrassing losses, Oklahoma rebounded against Kansas and Iowa State. But will this momentum carry on, or will the earlier version of the Sooners reappear against a solid opponent?
Baylor, on the other hand, isn’t quite at the same level as it was last year, but it's still an above-average team. The Bears are sitting at 5-3 right now, but have been better than their record shows.
By SP+ expected scores, Baylor would be expected to be 7-1 so far, which would have it right in the thick of the Big 12 Conference title race.
This isn’t the case however, but there still is a chance that Baylor can make the conference championship game. Both teams need to win this weekend in order to keep those dreams alive.
Baylor’s offense hasn’t been spectacular in any one area this season, but it has been fairly good across the board.
The Bears rank as the No. 29 offense by SP+ and are 25th in Offensive Success Rate. They also have been strong at Finishing Drives, ranking 15th in points per opportunity.
This offensive attack has been successful in both facets. The rushing game ranks 27th in Success Rate and PPA, while the aerial attack is 25th in Success Rate and 33rd in PPA.
Baylor runs the ball at a rate higher than most teams in the country. The Bears run the ball 56% of the time, which is the 27th-highest rate in the country.
This is where the most explosive part of its offense comes from.
The Bears rank 21st in the country in Rushing Explosiveness, but only 64th in Passing Explosiveness.
The running game will be where Baylor may find an advantage against the Sooners.
Just like the Baylor offense, this defense has been steady. The Bears’ defense is ranked 24th by SP+ and 36th in Success Rate.
Where they have had problems so far this season is Finishing Drives. Opponents are averaging 3.98 points per opportunity against them, which ranks as the 80th-best mark in the country.
If this Baylor defense is able to turn touchdowns into field goals in the red zone, it will be even better.
The strengths of this unit line up well against what Oklahoma will want to do. Baylor’s run defense is among the better ones in the country. The Bears rank 28th in Success Rate, 34th in PPA and Explosiveness and 19th in PFF run defense grade.
While it hasn't been weak necessarily, the one spot where Baylor has slightly struggled on defense has been through the air. The Bears rank 58th in Success Rate against the pass, which still is not bad by any means.
Baylor still is 37th in PPA against the pass, 43rd in Pass Explosiveness Allowed and 14th in PFF coverage grade, so it should still be okay against this Oklahoma offense.
Oklahoma’s offense was one of the most dominant units in the country over the past decade-plus.
However, this 2022 version of the Sooners has been a bit different. The departure of Lincoln Riley may have set this offense back a number of steps.
The unit has been okay, ranking 42nd in Success Rate. Baking in its past success, SP+ has Oklahoma as the No. 9 offense in the country, while PFF has it ranked 22nd.
This moderate success hasn’t happened in the same way as it has in the past. After relying on a strong passing attack for years, this current Oklahoma team has not excelled when throwing the ball, but has been reliable on the ground.
Oklahoma ranks 37th in Rushing Success Rate, 30th in rushing PPA and 37th in Rushing Explosiveness. The Sooners also run the ball at the 28th-highest rate in the country.
This works well against most opponents, but Baylor has a stout run defense that may require more answers to defeat.
The problem is that Oklahoma hasn’t had those answers when it can’t turn to the run game to get by. The Sooners rank 60th in Passing Success Rate, 63rd in passing PPA and 83rd in Passing Explosiveness.
In the past, this was a passing game that could be relied on to come up when it was needed, but that has not been the case this season.
The Sooners’ defense has struggled this year despite Brent Venables coming to Norman.
Oklahoma ranks 45th in defense by SP+ and 91st by PFF.
Overall, the Sooners rank 75th in Defensive Success Rate, but have struggled both through the air and on the ground this season.
Both of these will end up being an issue against Baylor’s very capable offense, but the rushing defense will be especially detrimental.
Oklahoma is 85th in Success Rate against the pass and 75th against the run. The Sooners rank 67th in PFF run defense grade and have allowed an alarmingly high rate of explosive run plays this season, coming in at 106th in the country in rushing Defensive Explosiveness.
Baylor vs Oklahoma Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Baylor and Oklahoma match up statistically:
Baylor Offense vs Oklahoma Defense
|** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)|
Oklahoma Offense vs Baylor Defense
|** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)|
Pace of Play / Other
|SP+ Special Teams||15||7|
|Seconds per Play||26.8 (82)||21.5 (7)|
|Rush Rate||59.3% (27)||59.9% (22)|
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Baylor vs Oklahoma Betting Pick
Overall, I think that the strengths of this Baylor team match up well against Oklahoma.
The play of Dillon Gabriel at quarterback will go a long way towards determining how the Sooners’ offense will perform. If he is not able to pass the ball effectively, Baylor should be able to shut down this Oklahoma running game.
Oklahoma’s defense will likely not be able to dictate how this goes, as Baylor should have its way, both on the ground and through the air. I look for Baylor to be able to move the ball at will, as most Oklahoma opponents have been successful doing this year.
Fading a talented team at home is never a good thing to do, but I like taking Baylor, here, as long as it's getting points at or above the key number of three.