The Boise State Broncos take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in South Bend, IN. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on NBC.
Notre Dame is favored by -20.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1200. The total is set at 62.5 points.
Here’s my Boise State vs. Notre Dame predictions and college football picks for Saturday, October 4, 2025.
Boise State vs Notre Dame Prediction
- Boise State vs. Notre Dame Pick: Notre Dame Team Total Over 41.5
My Notre Dame vs. Boise State best bet is on the Notre Dame team over. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Boise State vs Notre Dame Odds
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+20.5 -110 | 62.5 -110o / -110u | +750 |
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-20.5 -110 | 62.5 -110o / -110u | -1200 |
- Boise State vs Notre Dame point spread: Notre Dame -20.5
- Boise State vs Notre Dame over/under: 62.5 points
- Boise State vs Notre Dame moneyline: Boise State +750, Notre Dame -1200
Boise State vs Notre Dame Preview
Boise State Broncos Betting Preview: Seeking Redemption After USF Setback
Given the profile it's built over the last two decades, Boise State will enter most years as one of the favorites to be the Group of 5 representative in the College Football Playoff.
However, in its first game without Ashton Jeanty, Boise State traveled cross-country and fell 34-7 at South Florida. The loss was costly for multiple reasons, but most importantly is the fact that it gave the Bulls a head-to-head advantage if they end up battling for a spot in the CFP with the Broncos.
The Broncos have won their last three games while averaging 49 points per game. Sophomore Dylan Riley and redshirt freshman Sire Gaines are both averaging over six yards per carry as they try to replace Jeanty's production.
Senior Latrell Caples is on the verge of having a career year, already accumulating 240 receiving yards and two touchdowns while averaging 16 yards per catch.
However, the USF loss was costly because Boise State is a three-touchdown underdog in South Bend this week. Notre Dame is allowing about 28 points per game, so offensively, the Broncos might hang around. However, I wouldn't expect many stops.
The Broncos allowed 34 points to USF and 37 to Air Force. They're also allowing 153 rushing yards per game and gave up 268 to Air Force.
With Air Force running the triple option, that's not all that surprising, but the Falcons also threw for 246 yards to go over 500 yards on the day.
Boise State is also 134th in explosiveness allowed and is now tasked with slowing down one of the best offenses in the country.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish Betting Preview: Shining With Explosive Offense
Over the last decade or so, Notre Dame hasn't lacked for high-end talent, but its identity has largely been that of a smash-mouth, run-first team with a strong defense.
This year, that's flipped as Notre Dame ranks 11th in scoring offense at 44 points per game. If that holds, it would be Notre Dame's highest scoring average in over 20 years.
Notre Dame still has an argument for having the nation's best running back tandem in Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. Love has gone over 100 all-purpose yards with multiple touchdowns in each of his past three games. Last week, he set a program record with four touchdowns — all in the first half.
Meanwhile, Price is averaging 6.8 yards per carry and has seven touchdowns in his last three games.
However, what makes this Notre Dame offense different is quarterback CJ Carr, who's showing early signs of emerging as a star himself. The redshirt freshman earned the Shaun Alexander Award for the top freshman player in the country after going 22-for-30 for 354 yards and four touchdowns.
He ranks second nationally in QBR and has nine touchdown passes against just two interceptions. He leads all FBS freshmen in yards per attempt, passing efficiency and passing yards per game.
Against Arkansas, Notre Dame had its most yards in a half (420) since 2018 and most yards in a game (641) since 2017. It's now tied for 10th in Passing Success Rate.
Virginia transfer Malachi Fields is leading the way with 275 receiving yards on the year and Jordan Faison and tight end Eli Raridon have stepped up as well.
However, with how successful the offense has been so far, it's surprising to see the slow start Jaden Greathouse has gotten off to so far after a breakout sophomore campaign.
If there's one area offensively that Notre Dame needs to clean up, it's in Havoc Allowed, where it ranks 125th nationally. Boise State ranks 59th in Havoc, but I would give Notre Dame the edge in this matchup, especially considering the Broncos' undersized front.
Boise State vs Notre Dame Pick, Betting Analysis
Notre Dame scored 24 points in its season-opening loss to Miami, and that continues to age better. Since then, it's scored 40, 56 and 56 points in its last three games. It's averaging 46 points per game in its last four games against Group of 5 opponents.
Additionally, Notre Dame has suffered losses to the two best teams on its schedule and has limited opportunities for quality wins moving forward. Its path to the playoffs may be through domination.
In the first week of October, that point may be too early to consider.
However, if Notre Dame has the opportunity to tack on style points, look for Marcus Freeman and Co. to take advantage — as it's done done the last two weeks.
Pick: Notre Dame Team Total Over 41.5
