The Boston College Eagles take on the Michigan State Spartans in East Lansing, MI. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC.
Michigan State is favored by -4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -198. The total is set at 46.5 points.
Here’s my Boston College vs. Michigan State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, September 6, 2025.
Boston College vs Michigan State Prediction
- Boston College vs. Michigan State Pick: Boston College +5
My Michigan State vs Boston College best bet is on the Eagles spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Boston College vs Michigan State Odds
| Boston College Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -108 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +164 |
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -112 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -198 |
- Boston College vs Michigan State point spread: Michigan State -4.5
- Boston College vs Michigan State over/under: 46.5 points
- Boston College vs Michigan State moneyline: Boston College +164, Michigan State -198
Boston College vs Michigan State Preview
Boston College Eagles Betting Preview: Eagles Look to Build on Solid First Season
The first year under Bill O’Brien for the Boston College Eagles resulted in a solid 7-6 record and a Pinstripe Bowl appearance. The sophomore season started with a dominating 66-10 win against Fordham before a trip to East Landing to take on the Spartans.
Last season’s starting quarterback Thomas Castellanos transferred to Florida State, and Boston College replaced him with an Alabama transfer they could probably use in Dylan Lonergan. The former four-star recruit showed out in his Eagles debut, going 26-of-34 for 268 yards and four touchdown passes.
Lonergan found top receiver Lewis Bond 11 times for 138 yards. In total, 10 Eagles caught a pass, with true freshman Dawson Pough looking good in his first collegiate game (3-96-1). O’Brien is known as a quarterback whisperer, and this passing attack looks like a strength under Lonergan.
The one area of concern coming off the opener was the lack of efficiency in the running game. Boston College managed just 97 rushing yards on 39 carries, 2.5 yards per carry. The Eagles did rush for three touchdowns, but neither Turbo Richard nor Jordan McDonald were able to get anything going.
The longest rush they had all game was just nine yards.
Defensively, this was a strong unit last season, especially against the run. Boston College ranked 22nd in the country in rush defense, allowing just 114.9 rushing yards per game.
That looks to be a strength again, as it allowed just 16 total rushing yards on 27 attempts last week. The Eagles' front tallied eight tackles for loss.
The secondary wasn’t great last year, but they return three starters led by talented safety KP Price. He's a tackling machine on the back end of this defense. The key for the Boston College defense this year will be to find a way to get pressure on the quarterback without star end Donovan Ezeiruaku.
Michigan State Spartans Betting Preview: Spartans Aiming to Improve
Michigan State also has a second-year coach in Jonathan Smith, although it's coming off a slightly more disappointing first season. The Spartans went 5-7, losing seven of their last nine games of the season.
They secured a win in their season opener as well, albeit in a less dominating fashion. The defense looked strong in a 23-6 victory over Western Michigan, but the offense sputtered, failing to score in the second half.
Quarterback Aidan Chiles has all the talent in the world, but something seems to be missing. We've seen Chiles make some incredible plays at times, but he completed less than 60% of his passes last year with 13 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. His 20 turnover-worthy plays were the most in the Big Ten.
Even in Week 1 against Western Michigan, Chiles had two turnover-worthy plays, which remain a big concern. Chiles is also a very talented runner, but again, he struggles to protect the football. He had six fumbles last season.
The good news for Chiles is that two of his favorite targets are back in leading receiver Nick Marsh and tight end Jack Velling. MiddleTennessee transfer Omari Kelly joins them to give the Spartans plenty of weapons. Kelly caught seven passes last week and looks to have quickly developed chemistry.
Running the ball was a big issue for Michigan State last year and remains a major concern, with only one returning starter along the offensive line.
The top two leading rushers from last season are gone, but Makhi Frazier looked great, going for 103 yards and a score last week against Western Michigan. We'll see how he fares against this tough Boston College defense.
To Michigan State’s credit, its run defense was also very strong last season. It finished 21st in Rush Success Rate allowed. Just four starters return on defense for Joe Rossi, but two of them are along the defensive line, and Jalen Thompson was one of the team's best run defenders last year.
The Spartans held Western Michigan to just 29 yards on 24 carries last week.
The secondary returns both starting transfers and adds cornerback Joshua Eaton from Texas State. And while the linebackers were not true starters, they all saw a decent amount of playing time last year.
Boston College vs Michigan State Pick, Betting Analysis
Coming into the season, the big question for Michigan State was whether Chiles would take a big leap forward.
I didn’t see anything in Week 1 to convince me that he has. While we don’t want to overreact to one game, he managed just 155 passing yards and had two turnover-worthy plays against a MAC school.
Protecting the football continues to be a major concern with him. The Eagles play an aggressive style of defense. They finished 13th in the country, forcing 25 turnovers last season, which included picking off Chiles three times in a 23-19 win.
All three of the secondary pieces who picked off Chiles last season (Carter Davis, Max Tucker and Amari Jackson) are back for the Eagles.
Boston College was 25th at preventing explosiveness last year. It's elite at stopping the run, and while teams were able to dink-and-dunk through the air a bit on it, Boston College largely kept big plays in front of it.
Michigan State isn't a team I trust to move the ball down the field consistently. The Spartans managed just 341 total yards of offense against Western Michigan and were shut out in the second half.
The offensive line is a major concern for the Spartans. They allowed four sacks and 10 tackles for loss to a MAC defense, and Chiles has been a disaster when under pressure.
I expect Michigan State to struggle to run the ball here, forcing Chiles into more throwing situations, which spells bad news. Boston College will be able to get pressure on Chiles in obvious passing downs and force him into turnovers.
Lonergan was very impressive in his debut for the Eagles and should have success through the air against a Spartans defense that was shaky in coverage.
Definitely take the points with Boston College and don’t be surprised if it wins this game outright. I think it's the better team.
Pick: Boston College +5 (Play to +3)
Boston College vs Michigan State Betting Trends
