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College Football Odds, Pick for Buffalo vs Miami (OH): Wednesday MAC Betting Guide

College Football Odds, Pick for Buffalo vs Miami (OH): Wednesday MAC Betting Guide article feature image

Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Miami (Oh) Redhawks defensive back Silas Walters (29).

Buffalo vs Miami (OH) Odds

Wednesday, Nov. 15
7 p.m. ET
Buffalo Odds
-110o / -110u
Miami (OH) Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.

It's time to dive into the college football odds for Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) and find a pick for Wednesday's MAC college football game.

It's sad to say this is the last Wednesday of MACtion of the year, so let's hope we can end today on a profitable note. Let's head back out to Oxford, Ohio, where the Miami (Ohio) RedHawks will host the Buffalo Bulls.

This is a huge game for the RedHawks, as they can punch their ticket to the MAC Championship if they win their remaining two games. As for the Bulls, it's been a dreadful season that seems to be sputtering out of control as of late.

Let's break down this MACtion showdown and find some betting value.

Check out our NCAAF Betting Hub for more college football previews, predictions, news and analysis.

Buffalo Bulls

I'll admit, the Bulls definitely deserved to cover last week's game against Ohio. They won the total yards battle, 295-236, but still somehow managed to lose by 10.

I didn't take much away from last week's performance, especially since the Bulls were anemic on offense throughout most of the game. Each time they crossed the 50-yard line, it's almost as if they forgot how to play football.

Sadly, things won't get easier for them this week against another strong defensive unit.

I'm starting to run out of adjectives and expletives to describe how awful this Buffalo offense is.

The Bulls are one of the worst teams in the nation in Line Yards and Passing Success Rate, finding themselves in the bottom 25 of both categories.

They'll also be at a huge special teams disadvantage in this spot, as the RedHawks have a top-five unit in the entire nation. The kicking situation has been a real issue and could cost Buffalo a cover in what should be a lower-scoring game.

Defensively, I think the Bulls could contain this RedHawks offense a bit, as we know quarterback Brett Gabbert is done for the year. The Bulls are a top-35 team in terms of Defensive Passing Success Rate, so the RedHawks will most likely lean on their ground attack.

The Bulls rank top-15 in Defensive Line Yards — if they're going to win this game, it'll be because of this defensive front. The issue is the fact that Buffalo quarterback Cole Snyder is a walking turnover, so the RedHawks could have shorter fields to work with.

A big area of concern is the Bulls' ability to tackle. This is one of the worst tackling teams in the entire country, and this could allow the RedHawks to extend some drives and put touchdowns on the scoreboard.

Miami RedHawks

The RedHawks improved to 5-0 against the spread as a favorite last week, and they will look to continue that trend on Wednesday evening. I don't think motivation will be a factor since the RedHawks need to win to clinch a spot in the MAC Championship game.

Their defense once again impressed last week with a 19-0 victory over Akron. They were dominant from the opening kick, holding the Zips to 212 total yards.

This defensive unit finds itself ranked inside the top 40 in a few key categories, including Rushing Success Rate, Quality Drives Allowed and PFF tackle grading.

Plus, this Bulls offense is a complete disaster, so I doubt the RedHawks will allow many explosive plays.

Offensively, I do have some questions — not only for this game but moving forward.

Gabbert was a massive loss for this offense. Luckily for  Miami, it won't need to score too many points to take care of business. I could easily see this being a contest with a final score of 13-3.

I'd expect the defense to carry the RedHawks in this matchup, as it should be able to force a few mistakes from Snyder.

This home crowd should also be juiced up with a spot in the MAC Championship on the line.

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Buffalo vs Miami (OH)

Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Buffalo and Miami (OH) match up statistically:

Buffalo Offense vs. Miami (OH) Defense
Rush Success6140
Line Yards115116
Pass Success12742
Finishing Drives7133
Quality Drives10415
Miami (OH) Offense vs. Buffalo Defense
Rush Success11525
Line Yards6115
Pass Success7429
Finishing Drives4248
Quality Drives3969
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling12227
PFF Coverage7543
Special Teams SP+952
Middle 89272
Seconds per Play25.9 (46)31.1 (131)
Rush Rate50.9% (89)61.2% (21)

Buffalo vs Miami (OH)

Betting Pick & Prediction

I love the RedHawks in this game and believe they'll be able to take care of business at home.

I already mentioned their 5-0 ATS record as a favorite, but there are too many advantages for this defense to allow the Bulls to cover this number.

The under isn't a bad play, but I have a hunch Snyder is going to be forced into making a few too many turnover-worthy plays, which could lead to some easy scores for this RedHawks offense.

Plus, I can't put any faith in the Bulls offense to do any damage in this game.

The home crowd should be a huge advantage for the RedHawks, and they should dominate from the opening kick with a stellar showing from the defense.

Pick: Miami (OH) -8.5 (Play to -10)

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