Campbell vs. Coastal Carolina Betting Odds & Pick: Pace, Weather Create Value on the Under (Friday, Sept. 18)
Nick Tre. Smith/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: CJ Marable.
- Campbell and Coastal Carolina will face off Friday night at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
- Collin Wilson has found value on the total and the spread in the matchup.
- Check out his analysis and betting picks below.
Campbell at Coastal Carolina Odds
|Campbell Odds||+27.5 [BET NOW]|
|Coastal Carolina Odds||-27.5 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||60 [BET NOW]|
|Time||Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET|
Campbell Fighting Camels
There were plenty of reasons to back Campbell over Georgia Southern in Week 2:
- It is difficult for any triple-option team, like Georgia Southern, to cover a spread of 30 points or more. This is particularly true for the Eagles, whose offense consistently ranks among the nation’s slowest-paced teams year in and year out.
- Campbell is no stranger to defending the triple-option. The Fighting Camels face Kennesaw State in Big South conference play every season.
- Last but certainly not least, Campbell quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams is a star.
— Campbell Football (@GoCamelsFB) September 13, 2020
In its season opener against Georgia Southern, the Campbell offense achieved an explosive drive percentage of 18% — well above the national average of 12%. But the Camels didn’t just rely on big plays: They also generated a high success rate of 60%. Furthermore, Campbell made the most of its opportunities past the 40-yard line, averaging 4.8 points in offensive finishing drives.
Of course, Georgia Southern did have 33 inactive players, including seven starters. Nonetheless, Week 2 proved that this Campbell team is capable of competing with FBS schools from the Sun Belt.
Check out our free NCAAF odds page, which automatically surfaces the best line for every game.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
The Chanticleers entered Lawrence as touchdown underdogs against Kansas. Coastal Carolina proceeded to dominate their Big 12 opponent — not just on the scoreboard, but moreover in havoc and finishing drives.
Coastal averaged 5.43 points on seven scoring opportunities past the 40-yard line. To contrast, the Jayhawks only averaged 2.83 points in their six trips past the 40. The Chanticleers dominated on defense with 12 tackles for loss, five sacks and tremendous athleticism in taking the ball away.
Jeffrey Gunter with the pick!
Coastal Carolina defense with THREE takeaways in the first half pic.twitter.com/yeYIxf1iK9
— Sun Belt Pages (@SBPages) September 13, 2020
Grayson McCall had a fantastic night under center, individually accounting for all five Chanticleers touchdowns and completing four passes over 20 yards. He was subsequently named to the Week 2 Davey O’ Brien Great 8 List in recognition of his stellar performance.
McCall led the Coastal offense to a 58% offensive success rate while achieving at least two first downs on 60% of the Chanticleers’ drives. Both of those marks exceed national averages.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Check out our new CFB PRO Report, where we highlight factors that provide betting edges — like large wagers, historically profitable betting systems, model projections and expert picks — that when combined with sharp money can powerfully detail the smartest bets on a given slate.
Our Action Network Power Ratings make this game Coastal Carolina -29.5 as the market hovers below four touchdowns. Both Coastal and Campbell are wagering winners from Week 2, but there may be more incentive to back the Camels in Week 3.
Coastal Carolina was granted an average starting field position at the 43-yard line against the Jayhawks — the result of 191 hidden yards from special teams and havoc. That hidden yardage total may not be easily reproducible against Campbell, whose stable of running backs may find success on the ground. The Chanticleers conceded 6.1 yards per rush attempt against Kansas in Week 2.
Perhaps even more importantly, neither team features an uptempo offense. In their respective Week 2 matchups, Campbell averaged 27 seconds per play, and Coastal Carolina averaged 30.4 seconds per play. While the Camels had an even run-pass distribution, Coastal ran the ball 70% of the game against Kansas. Covering a four-touchdown spread may be difficult with two laggardly offenses burning the clock.
Another factor to consider is the weather, as Hurricane Sally’s remnants make their way to the east coast. Conway is expected to get plenty of precipitation with wind gusts in the double-digits. Brooks Stadium switched from a grass surface to “The Surf Turf” in 2015, which has yielded an under record of 4-1 when the Chanticleers are favored.
With both teams coming off emotional games in Week 2 and displaying a penchant for the rushing game, taking the under will be the look. Furthermore, considering the possible inclement weather and Campbell’s ability to compete in a ground game, the Camels could be an interesting live-betting target at four touchdowns or better.
The Bet: Under 57; Campbell +28 or better (Live)