The Central Michigan Chippewas take on the Western Michigan Broncos in Kalamazoo, Michigan. Kickoff is set for 4:00 p.m. EDT on ESPNU.
Western Michigan is favored by 4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -200. The total is set at 40.5 points.
Here’s my Central Michigan vs. Western Michigan prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 1, 2025.
Central Michigan vs Western Michigan Prediction
- Central Michigan vs. Western Michigan Pick: Central Michigan +4.5 (-110, bet365)
My Western Michigan vs. Central Michigan best bet is on the Chips to cover. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Central Michigan vs Western Michigan Odds
| Central Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | +165 |
| Western Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | -200 |
- Central Michigan vs Western Michigan point spread: Western Michigan -4.5 (-110), Central Michigan +4.5 (-110)
- Central Michigan vs Western Michigan over/under: 40.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Central Michigan vs Western Michigan moneyline: Central Michigan +165, Western Michigan -200
Central Michigan vs Western Michigan Preview
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams.
Small Dog in Small Game is a college football system built around the idea that underdogs in lower-profile matchups can be undervalued when attention and betting volume are limited.
These games typically kick off in the afternoon or evening window and occur early in the season, within the first nine contests, when teams are still developing identities. The underdog in this range is small to moderate, with spreads between 2 and 11.5 points, and often comes into the game with little momentum, having won or lost only a game or two in a short streak.
Because betting activity on these contests is lower than the daily average, the market is less efficient, and lines move very little from open to close, creating opportunities in which perception has more influence than actual performance.
When public money leans toward the favorite but not overwhelmingly, the small dog benefits from value created by these market dynamics and covers more often than expected.
I’m terrified of fading Western Michigan, which is likely the best defense in the MAC — the Broncos rank 11th nationally in EPA per Play allowed and have allowed only 42 points across four conference games.
But the Broncos are an elite pass defense that prevents explosives above all else — they keep everything in front of them.
They’re more of a middling run defense, ranking outside the top 50 nationally in Defensive Line Yards and outside the top 75 in Rush Success Rate allowed.
That’s huge for Central Michigan, which ranks fifth nationally in Rush Play Rate (70%). The Chips aren’t an efficient rush offense, but they run the ball like crazy to set up play-action. 56% of Joe Labas’ dropbacks are play-action concepts, and he completes 78% of those passes while averaging 10 yards per attempt — it’s likely the main reason that the Broncos rank in the top 40 nationally in EPA per Pass.
The Chips can run the ball well enough and complete enough play-action passes to keep this game close for 60 minutes. Especially given that Western Michigan’s offense is horrific (116th nationally in EPA per Play).
Pick: Central Michigan +4.5 (-110, bet365)
