Charlotte vs USF Odds, Prediction, Pick: Bulls Hold Key Edge (Saturday, Nov. 25)

Two first-year head coaches will look to finish the regular season strong, but only one has a chance to earn a bowl bid.

Biff Poggi face a difficult rebuild in Charlotte and was expected to need a few years. The 49ers are 3-8 and have an improved defense, but a bowl appearance was always going to be a tough ask.

Meanwhile, Alex Golesh has done a tremendous job at South Florida and has the Bulls just one win away from earning bowl eligibility for the first time since 2018.

The Bulls will certainly be motivated to go to a bowl, so let's look at the odds and make a Charlotte vs. USF Odds, Prediction, Pick.

Last season, Charlotte's offense had some upside, but its defense was dreadful. This season, that has flipped. The 49ers rank 129th in the country in Offensive Success Rate and average just 17.8 points per game.

Quarterback Jalon Jones has been dealing with an injury over the past three weeks, leaving sophomore Trexler Ivey under center. Ivey is a better passer but has just four touchdowns (and eight interceptions) through the air.

What Ivey doesn't have is Jones' rushing upside. For an offense that struggles to move the ball, Jones' rushing ability has been Charlotte's best weapon as he's also the team's leading rusher.

After sporting one of the worst defenses in the country last year, the 49ers took a big step forward under Poggi and rank 44th in Success Rate.

They have been especially strong against the pass, allowing just 203 passing yards per game. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown 10 interceptions and just 15 touchdown passes against the 49ers. Cornerback Dontae Balfour has been the best player on the defense and leads the team with 11 passes broken up.

Redshirt freshman Byrum Brown has taken South Florida's offense to the next level with his big play ability.

He has thrown 19 touchdown passes this season and is averaging 256.8 yards per game through the air. But where he really has killed defenses is with his legs.

The dual-threat quarterback leads the Bulls with 10 rushing touchdowns and averages 63.8 rushing yards per game. Brown ranks third in the country in rushing among all quarterbacks, but his 681 yards after contact and 46 missed tackles forced both lead all signal callers.

Brown is joined in the backfield by running back Nay’Quan Wright. The former Florida Gator is averaging 68.8 yards per game with seven scores.

When Brown does throw the ball, slot receiver Sean Atkins is his top target, ranking second in the conference with 81 receptions for 915 yards. Both are USF single-season records.

Defensively, South Florida has been the opposite of bend, but don’t break. The Bulls rank 57th in Rushing Success Rate but are 133rd at preventing explosiveness.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Charlotte and USF match up statistically:

Charlotte Offense vs. USF Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	128	53
Line Yards	107	34
Pass Success	124	123
Havoc	128	39
Finishing Drives	128	97
Quality Drives	115	103

USF Offense vs. Charlotte Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	112	47
Line Yards	100	53
Pass Success	89	68
Havoc	95	122
Finishing Drives	101	86
Quality Drives	85	92

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	86	121
PFF Coverage	33	126
Special Teams SP+	125	96
Middle 8	117	122
Seconds per Play	29.3 (110)	21.4 (2)
Rush Rate	58.6% (37)	56.5% (52)

South Florida is sitting on five wins and has a chance to reach a bowl game in its first season under Golesh. The Bulls have played in many high-scoring games, losing to Western Kentucky, Alabama, UAB, FAU, Memphis and UTSA.

Those teams all have above-average offenses and talent at the offensive skill positions, Charlotte does not.

The 49ers offense ranks 129th in Success Rate on offense and 128th at Finishing Drives. South Florida’s biggest weakness has been preventing big plays, but Charlotte is without its most explosive weapon.

Charlotte has also been vulnerable to giving up the big play, and South Florida is well-equipped to take advantage as it ranks 28th in explosiveness.

I expect the Bulls' offense to exploit Charlotte’s weakness and the 49ers aren't built to keep up with or take advantage of South Florida’s biggest flaws.

When you add in South Florida's motivation to reach a bowl, this is a smash spot for the Bulls.

Pick: South Florida -6 (Play to -7)

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