Wilson: My 9 Favorite College Football Betting Picks in Week 10

Nov 03, 2018 10:21 AM EDT
  • Collin Wilson gives out nine of his favorite college football betting picks for Week 10, including a few underdogs that could pull off upsets against ranked teams.
  • He's riding a handful of home dogs this week, and looking to fade teams overvalued in the initial College Football Playoff rankings.

We are officially in Week 10, meaning the first set of College Football Playoff rankings have been released. The pressure begins to mount for top ranked teams in the race for the national semifinals. At least two top-10 teams will take a loss this week with No. 1 Alabama playing at No. 3 LSU and No. 6 Georgia at No. 9 Kentucky.

According to The Action Network power ratings, LSU, Kentucky and UCF may overvalued right now. Each team has a chance to prove itself in Week 10.

Washington State, Michigan, Oklahoma and Ohio State round out a list of top-10 teams that cannot afford another loss if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive.

If you followed along with our futures play, you know I’ll happily take a Clemson-Notre Dame semifinal, with Michigan slated against Alabama in the other playoff game.

This column will leverage The Action Network power ratings and plenty of advanced stats from Football Outsiders.

Be sure to check out my Sunday Morning Coffee column for our Week 11 projected spreads. Let’s get to the picks!

YTD: 41-39-1


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All data below as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network app to get real-time odds, track your bets and follow all of our experts’ picks.


College Football Betting Picks, Week 10

Michigan State at Maryland

  • Spread: Maryland +2.5
  • Over/Under: 46
  • Time: 12 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: ESPN2

What a roller coaster of a week it was in College Park, with the reinstatement of head coach D.J. Durkin and his subsequent firing after Wednesday’s practice. I put my pick in The Action Network App after college football openers on Sunday purely based on the matchup in this game.

Once news broke of Durkin’s reinstatement, players started missing meetings and practices in protest of the decision.

From a betting standpoint, none of the news was positive if you had money on Maryland. Now with Durkin’s firing, the players should feel some closure on the incident and possibly have their best game of the season against Michigan State.

Wagering on Maryland came down to a few stats, mainly the Terrapins rush explosiveness ranking third against a Michigan State defense that ranks 101st in defending it. On the flip side of the ball, the Spartans should have plenty of offensive issues thanks to an injured offensive line.

In Week 9, the Michigan State offensive line played without its starting center, guards and lost right tackle Jordan Reid late in the game to a right leg injury. Backup right guard Luke Campbell also left the game with an injury but did return.

Quarterback Brian Lewerke is still questionable for the game, and the Maryland defense has plenty of tape to study on backup freshman Rocky Lombardi.

Regardless of who the Spartans put under center, it may be a struggle against the Terrapins. Maryland is 26th in defensive pass efficiency and seventh defensive pass completion percentage.

Expect Maryland to play an inspired and emotional game.

Play On: Maryland +2.5

Nebraska at Ohio State

  • Spread: Ohio State -18.5
  • Over/Under: 73
  • Time: 12 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: FOX

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Credit:

USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Drew Lock and Adrian Martinez

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
BSU
UNM
62.5
+21.5
62.5
+19.5
PSU
RUTG
48.5
+26
49.5
+28
ARK
MSST
45.5
-18.5
46.5
-21.5
CIT
BAMA
60.5
-51
62.5
-51.5
OSU
MD
58
+17.5
58.5
+14.5
NW
MINN
51
+3.5
47
-2
IDHO
FLA
59
-39.5
59
-40
MTSU
UK
45
-13
46.5
-16.5
UTAH
COLO
48.5
+7
48
+7
USU
CSU
68
+26
68
+28.5
SYR
ND
62.5
-10
65.5
-10
BC
FSU
49.5
+1
49
+1.5
WVU
OKST
69.5
+5
74
+5.5
MASS
UGA
62
-44
66.5
-41
IND
MICH
53
-27.5
53.5
-28.5
ORST
WASH
57.5
-31
58.5
-33.5
DUKE
CLEM
58
-27
57.5
-28.5
RICE
LSU
51
-44
52
-41.5
KU
OKLA
68
-34.5
69
-35.5
CIN
UCF
59.5
-8
61
-7
ISU
TEX
51
-3
47
-2.5
ARIZ
WSU
60.5
-10
62.5
-10.5