CFB Betting Tip: Can Bettors Trust a Ranked Team After a Loss?

Sep 10, 2019 10:27 AM EDT
Credit:

Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Texas Longhorns quarterback Sam Ehlinger

  • Three Top 25 teams lost last week: Texas, Texas A&M and Washington.
  • Using Bet Labs, we share a profitable approach to wagering on ranked teams after a loss.

What do No. 12 Texas, No. 16 Texas A&M and No. 23 Washington have in common? Each of these Top 25 teams lost in Week 2.

The Longhorns came up short against LSU in a shootout, the Aggies couldn’t keep pace with top-ranked Clemson and the Huskies were upset by Cal. But despite faltering, each team is still drawing a majority of spread tickets on Saturday.

Ranked teams tend to be overrated by recreational gamblers, so that public support isn’t too surprising. And while it’s important not to overreact to a single game, it has not been historically profitable to bet on ranked teams bouncing back after a loss.

Yes, these squads usually win. Nearly 70% were victorious in their next game since 2005, but covering is a different story.