College Football Betting Tip: The Smart Way to Bet Ranked Teams After Losses
Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jonathan Taylor and Wisconsin
- Three top 25 teams lost last week: Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona State
- Using Bet Labs, we detail how bettors should approach ranked teams following losses.
What do No. 13 Wisconsin, No. 19 Michigan and No. 24 Arizona State have in common? Each of these top 25 teams lost in Week 8.
The Badgers were upset by Illinois as 28.5-point favorites, the Wolverines came up short against Penn State and the Sun Devils got rolled by Utah.
Are these ranked teams poised to rebound? Or should bettors steer clear?
It’s important not to overreact to a single game as it has not been historically profitable to expect ranked teams to bounce back after a loss.
Yes, these squads usually win. Nearly 70% were victorious in their next game since 2005, but covering is a different story.
Since 2005, ranked teams after a loss have gone 252-304-17 (45.3%) against the spread (ATS) according to Bet Labs. A $100 bettor would be down $6,309 wagering on such spots.
The bigger the loss the previous week, the worse the ranked teams have performed:
Given the poor performance, it’s been profitable to fade these ranked teams after a loss. As I mentioned, they tend to be overrated by the general public, which leads oddsmakers to inflate their lines.
The loss is also an indication that the team might not be as good as the pollsters believe, and many retain their ranking based on the name on the jersey, not the talent on the roster.
Betting against ranked teams after a loss has covered at 55% ATS since 2005. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $3,524 following this strategy. With a large sample size and consistent results, we can have confidence in betting this system.
Bettors might expect Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona State to bounce back, but history says they’re more likely to be disappointed by Saturday’s results.
- Ohio State -14 vs. Wisconsin (12 p.m. ET, FOX)
- Notre Dame -1 at Michigan (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
- UCLA +4 vs. Arizona State (7:30 p.m. ET, PAC12)