Download the App Image

College Football Bowl Game Predictions: Week 13 CFP Rankings Shift Projected Matchups

College Football Bowl Game Predictions: Week 13 CFP Rankings Shift Projected Matchups article feature image
Credit:

Grant Halverson/Getty Images. Pictured: North Carolina defensive back Cam’Ron Kelly.

Updated College Football Bowl Projections for Week 13

One bowl bid down — 81 to go! On Tuesday night, Miami (OH) defeated Ball State, 18-17, to officially claim the first bowl bid of the season, earning a spot in the Bahama’s Bowl.

Miami (OH) will face an opponent from Conference USA.

In addition to the RedHawks securing the first bowl bid of the 2022 season, the College Football Playoff Committee released its updated rankings ahead of Rivalry Week. All of Tuesday’s action prompted updated bowl projections before the rest of the week’s games kick off.

There are now 74 bowl-eligible teams to fill the 82 spots. That number will climb to 75 bowl-eligible teams on Saturday with the Appalachian State vs. Georgia Southern winner becoming bowl-eligible.

That leaves only seven bowl openings with 13 teams on the verge of six wins. Of the remaining 13 teams needing a win, only four are favored this week:

  • Buffalo (-4) vs. Kent State
  • UAB (-17.5) at Louisiana Tech
  • Louisiana (-5.5) at Texas State
  • Southern Miss (-3) at UL-Monroe

If all of the favorites win, then we’re up to 79 bowl-eligible teams.

That leaves nine more teams one win shy of earning a bowl berth. However, it won’t be easy for those nine. All of them are underdogs this week:

  • Missouri (+3) vs. Arkansas
  • Georgia Tech (+35.5) vs. Georgia
  • FAU (+7) vs. Western Kentucky
  • Rice (+14) at North Texas
  • Auburn (+22) at Alabama
  • UTEP (+17) at UTSA
  • Michigan State (+18) at Penn State
  • Vanderbilt (+14) vs. Tennessee
  • Miami (+6.5) at Pitt

So, what happens if there aren’t 82 bowl-eligible teams? I’m glad you asked.

The highest-ranked teams, based on their Academic Progress Rate (APR) scores from 2020-21 (the latest data available), will earn the bids. If all of the five-win teams lose this weekend, there would be a maximum of seven five-win teams needed. In these projections, I have three 5-7 teams needed: Rice, UNLV and Auburn.

Here’s the order of teams based on APR that can finish with five wins. Obviously, if any of these teams get win No. 6, they will go bowling and be removed from the APR list.

Unlock $200 in free bets for the World Cup with our BetMGM bonus code!

  1. Rice (5-6) 994
  2. Iowa State (4-7) 986
  3. UNLV (4-7) 984
  4. Auburn (5-6) 983* (980)
  5. Missouri (5-6) 983* (973)
  6. Michigan State (5-6) 983* (952)
  7. Miami (5-6) 982
  8. Georgia Tech (5-6) 979
  9. Rutgers (4-7) 977
  10. Indiana (4-7) 976
  11. Cal (4-7) 975
  12. West Virginia (4-7) 974* (960)
  13. Georgia State (4-7) 974* (958)
  14. Buffalo (5-5) 968* (959)
  15. Appalachian State (5-6) 968* (953)

*For teams with identical scores, the tiebreaker is the previous year’s APR from 2019-20.

Here are this week’s projections following Tuesday’s latest College Football Playoff rankings with Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson’s current college football betting power ratings.

The ultimate betting cheat code

Best bets for every game

Our model’s biggest weekly edges

Profitable data-driven system picks

CFP National Championship Prediction

  • CFP National Championship

    Monday, Jan. 9
    Los Angeles, CA

    Georgia

    -2

    Ohio State


College Football Playoff Semifinals Projections

  • Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 31
    Atlanta, GA

    Georgia

    -17

    USC

  • Vrbo Fiesta Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 31
    Glendale, AZ

    Ohio State

    -12

    TCU


New Year’s Six Bowl Games

  • Rose Bowl

    Monday, Jan. 2
    Pasadena, CA

    Oregon

    Michigan

    -7
  • Goodyear Cotton Bowl

    Monday, Jan. 2
    Arlington, TX

    Tennessee

    -7

    Tulane

  • Allstate Sugar Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 31
    New Orleans, LA

    Kansas State

    PK

    LSU

    PK
  • Capital One Orange Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 30
    Miami, FL

    Clemson

    Alabama

    -4.5

Projections for All Other Bowls

  • Cheez-It Citrus Bowl

    Monday, Jan. 2
    Orlando, FL

    Ole Miss

    Penn State

    -4
  • ReliaQuest Bowl

    Monday, Jan. 2
    Tampa, FL

    Florida

    Iowa

    -2
  • Music City Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 31
    Nashville, TN

    Kentucky

    PK

    Illinois

    PK
  • Arizona Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 30
    Tucson, AZ

    Buffalo

    Wyoming

    -4
  • TaxSlayer Gator Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 30
    Jacksonville, FL

    South Carolina

    Florida State

    -9.5
  • Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 30
    El Paso, TX

    Wake Forest

    PK

    Oregon State

    PK
  • Duke’s Mayo Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 30
    Charlotte, NC

    Pittsburgh

    Minnesota

    -3
  • Valero Alamo Bowl

    Thursday, Dec. 29
    San Antonio, TX

    Texas

    -4.5

    Washington

  • Cheez-It Bowl

    Thursday, Dec. 29
    Orlando, FL

    Notre Dame

    PK

    Oklahoma

    PK
  • Pinstripe Bowl

    Thursday, Dec. 29
    Bronx, NY

    Louisville

    PK

    Purdue

    PK
  • TaxAct Texas Bowl

    Wednesday, Dec. 28
    Houston, TX

    Arkansas

    -1.5

    Oklahoma State

  • Holiday Bowl

    Wednesday, Dec. 28
    San Diego, CA

    North Carolina

    Utah

    -6.5
  • AutoZone Liberty Bowl

    Wednesday, Dec. 28
    Memphis, TN

    Auburn

    Baylor

    -7.5
  • Military Bowl

    Wednesday, Dec. 28
    Annapolis, MD

    NC State

    PK

    Cincinnati

    PK
  • Guaranteed Rate Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 27
    Phoenix, AZ

    Wisconsin

    -6

    Kansas

  • Camellia Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 27
    Montgomery, AL

    Appalachian State

    -15.5

    Eastern Michigan

  • Birmingham Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 27
    Birmingham, AL

    Memphis

    -8.5

    Southern Miss

  • First Responder Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 27
    Dallas, TX

    Texas Tech

    -4

    SMU

  • Quick Lane Bowl

    Monday, Dec. 26
    Detroit, MI

    Maryland

    -20.5

    Bowling Green

  • EasyPost Hawai’i Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 24
    Honolulu, HI

    San Diego State

    -3

    Middle Tennessee

  • Gasparilla Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 23
    Tampa, FL

    Syracuse

    -4

    Liberty

  • Independence Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 23
    Shreveport, LA

    Houston

    -7.5

    Louisiana

  • Armed Forces Bowl

    Thursday, Dec. 22
    Fort Worth, TX

    Air Force

    PK

    BYU

    PK
  • New Orleans Bowl

    Wednesday, Dec. 21
    New Orleans, LA

    North Texas

    Troy

    -7.5
  • Boca Raton Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 20
    Boca Raton, FL

    UTSA

    -5.5

    Coastal Carolina

  • Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 20
    Boise, ID

    Toledo

    -5.5

    Utah State

  • Myrtle Beach Bowl

    Monday, Dec. 19
    Conway, SC

    UConn

    UNLV

    -4.5
  • Frisco Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    Frisco, TX

    South Alabama

    -1.5

    Fresno State

  • Las Vegas Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    Las Vegas, NV

    Mississippi State

    UCLA

    -1.5
  • LendingTree Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    Mobile, AL

    Ohio

    Marshall

    -6
  • Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    Los Angeles, CA

    Washington State

    Boise State

    -2.5
  • New Mexico Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    Albuquerque, NM

    San Jose State

    -5.5

    Rice

  • Wasabi Fenway Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    Boston, MA

    Duke

    -2.5

    East Carolina

    • Duluth Trading Cure Bowl

      Friday, Dec. 16
      Orlando, FL

      UCF

      -9

      Western Kentucky

    • Bahamas Bowl

      Friday, Dec. 16
      Nassau, Bahamas

      UAB

      -10

      Miami (OH)


* The highest-rated champion from the Group of Five conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) will be selected to play in the Cotton Bowl if it does not qualify for College Football Playoff.

**If there are enough six-win teams to fill 42 bowls, ESPN will create another bowl not listed above. This week, Action Network does not project enough six-win teams for a 42nd bowl.

Highlighted teams are confirmed to have earned a spot in their respective bowls.

The must-have app for college football bettors

The best NCAAF betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

How would you rate this article?