College Football Expert Betting Picks: Our Staff’s 10 Favorite Week 12 Bets

Tin horn weekend has arrived! And while nobody is dreaming of a potential FCS upset over one of the FBS teams, a few pretty significant FCS underdogs have pulled off the rare feat in the past, including these seven since 2007:

• Liberty (+34) won at Baylor in 2017
• Howard (+45.5) won at UNLV in 2017
• Citadel (+22) won at South Carolina in 2015
• Georgia Southern (+28.5) won at Florida in 2013
• Jacksonville State (+29) won at Ole Miss in 2010
• James Madison (+33) won at Virginia Tech in 2010
• And of course, Appalachian State (+33) won at Michigan in 2007

You just never know. Always expect the unexpected in college football. Regardless, bettors don't need the marquee matchups to get excited about a college football Saturday in November.

To help narrow down your final bets, we asked ten of our staffers for their one favorite Saturday pick for Week 12. Hopefully, the supporting information can help guide you to a winner or two that wasn't on your radar.

We will get things started with two noon kicks and then work our way into a few late afternoon games before finishing up with two of the most highly-anticipated games of Week 12 in primetime. And as always, don't forget about the quick grabs at the end, where you will find two additional sides and an underdog moneyline shot.

We hope you at least pick up one key nugget of information  that can help you make a more informed wagering decision. I think you'll find plenty. Let's jump in.

In case you're curious, our staff's favorite college football bets are 65-63-2 +1.85 units on the season

Collin Wilson: Minnesota -2 (vs. Northwestern)

12 p.m. ET on BTN

Minnesota may be in its best spot of the year. Northwestern is celebrating a Big Ten West division title, so all of the conversation within the team and media is about the trip to Indianapolis to play for the conference, but nobody is discussing a trip to TCF Bank Stadium. Minnesota fired defensive coordinator Robb Smith, which had immediate results against Purdue.

Minnesota now has five wins and plenty of motivation to get to a bowl in head coach PJ Fleck’s second season. The Gophers played tremendous defense against an explosive Purdue offense last weekend. The Boilermakers didn't have a play that went for more than 20 yards, averaged of 2.9 yards per carry, and allowed three sacks.

Northwestern's offense hasn't put up the numbers Purdue has, ranking 109th in offensive S&P+. This will be Minnesota’s best effort against a Northwestern team that may have its feet kicked up.

Stuckey: Minnesota -2 (vs. Northwestern)

12 p.m. ET on BTN

If you listened to either one of our podcast episodes this week, you know both Collin and I have no shortage of love for the Gophers this weekend. I just don't see how head coach Pat Fitzgerald will have his team up for this meaningless noon kick against a motivated Minnesota team. Situational dream.

Even if Minnesota's defensive performance last week was more of a fluke, Northwestern is not the team that will expose its prior issues with defending explosiveness. The Wildcats rank 125th in the nation in IsoPPP+ (S&P adjusted measure of explosiveness).

Lastly, don't forget about the special teams unit, which has been dreadful for Northwestern all season, while Minnesota has excelled in that third phase all season. Per S&P+, Northwestern's special teams unit ranks 125th nationally, while Minnesota ranks 15th.

Danny Donahue: Mississippi State -21.5 (vs. Arkansas)

Noon ET on ESPN

My reason for laying the points with the Bulldogs here is twofold: I think bettors are underrating Mississippi State, and overreacting to Arkansas' seven-point loss to No. 7 LSU last week.

When the public decides to fade a home favorite, betting that favorite has been a profitable move. According to our Bet Labs data, when the point spread is between four and 30 points, the contrarian favorite has gone 54-32-0 (63%) against the spread since 2005.

Over that same span, when the public backs an unranked squad coming off an impressive performance against a top-10 team (judged by keeping a double digit spread to a margin of a touchdown or less), that team has gone 21-41-2 (33%) ATS in its next game.

BlackJack Fletcher: USC -3.5 (at UCLA)

3:30 p.m. ET on FOX

Neither one of these teams is having what they would consider a “good” year.

USC has been up-and-down and realistically needs this win to become bowl eligible, as it faces Notre Dame next week to wrap up its season. Meanwhile, UCLA has managed a meager two wins this season. And outside of those two wins over Cal and Arizona, the Bruins have looked lost during most of Chip Kelly’s first season in Westwood.

In regards to this specific game, USC is simply the more talented team, which will make the difference in a rivalry game where neither team has a motivational edge. Quarterback JT Daniels has had a largely lackluster season, but has still been more effective than Dorian Thompson-Wright or Wilton Speight has for the Bruins.

I think the Trojans' talent advantage prevails and they avoid the utter disaster of not becoming bowl eligible this season.

Ken Barkley: Indiana +28.5 (at Michigan)

4 p.m. ET on FS1

A certain amount of nose holding is required to back the opposing team on Senior Day at the Big House. However, even though Indiana may not look like much, it could pose a few minor problems for the Wolverines.

For starters, this has been an incredibly annoying matchup for head coach Jim Harbaugh. In the past three seasons, Indiana has taken Michigan to overtime twice — as 13 and 7-point underdogs. And Indiana lost the third meeting by 10 points as a 24-point underdog.

Now they meet the week before Ohio State, when keeping quarterback Shea Patterson out of harm’s way will absolutely drive Michigan's decision-making. The Wolverines will likely line up and run the ball against a weaker Indiana defense all day. This has grind written all over it, which makes a number like 28.5 tough to cover.

Indiana, meanwhile, has covered at Ohio State as 27.5-point underdogs and at home against Penn State as 14-point dogs. The level of competition isn’t a massive step up from what it has seen already. I’ll take the feisty Hoosiers to keep it closer than four touchdowns.

John Ewing: Iowa State +3 (at Texas)

8 p.m. ET on Longhorn Network

In top-25 matchups featuring conference opponents, the favorite is 277-221-12 (56%) ATS since 2005. That would seem to bode well for Texas on the surface, but the Longhorns are just 15-20 ATS as a favorite under head coach Tom Herman, including 7-13 ATS as a home favorite.

On the other side of the ball, Matt Campbell has been a covering machine. As the head coach at Iowa State and Toledo, he has compiled a 26-12 (68%) ATS record as an underdog — including 16-6 when getting points with the Cyclones.

The Action Network Power Rankings have Texas as 1.5-point favorites, while S&P+ has the margin at only 0.6 in favor of the Longhorns. The trends and models both point to Iowa State.

Steve Petrella: UCF -7 (vs. Cincinnati)

8 p.m. ET on ABC

We’ve chastised UCF for its schedule, but why does Cincinnati get a free pass against a worse schedule because the Bearcats have exceeded preseason expectations? That’s just not right.

I have a hard time believing UCF is only three-to-four points better than Cincy on a neutral field, which this line implies. I think the distractions surrounding the Golden Knights and the College Football Playoff are actually causing them to be slightly underrated in the market. You can still be really good and not a legitimate CFP contender, whether that’s right or not.

UCF’s offense is the best unit in this game, and it has a big special teams edge. I’ll lay the points.

Quick Grabs

Sean Koerner: TCU -1
Peter Jennings: UNLV moneyline +230
Jason Sobel: Syracuse +10.5