College Football Expert Betting Picks: Our Staff’s 10 Favorite Week 10 Bets

Nov 03, 2018 10:23 AM EDT
  • Our college football experts give their 10 favorite betting picks for Week 10 of the 2018 season.
  • You'll find totals, favorites and moneyline dogs to back.

It’s the first week of November and you can feel college football in the crisp, fall air. Just days after the first College Football Playoff rankings release, Week 10 might end up being the most meaningful and entertaining of the 2018 college football season.

Week 10 features four top 15 matchups, including a prime-time showdown in Baton Rouge between LSU and Alabama. The Crimson Tide are a historic 14.5 point favorite, which marks the first time a top-10 team has been a double-digit home underdog in at least the past 20 seasons.

It’s not like bettors need more of a reason to get excited for a November college football Saturday slate, but the added drama certainly doesn’t hurt. To help narrow down your final bets, we asked a group of our staffers for their one favorite Saturday pick.

Regardless of your betting style, you should find something that catches your eye — or at least helps you make more informed betting decisions for Week 10 — in the picks below.

We will get things started with three noon ET kicks and then hit a few other games throughout the rest of the afternoon and night. And as always, don’t forget about the quick grabs at the end, where you will find a few underdog moneyline shots.

We hope you at least pick up one key nugget of information  that can help you make a more informed wagering decision. I think you’ll find plenty. Let’s jump in.

In case you’re curious, our staff’s favorite college football bets are 58-51-1 (53.2%) +7.9 units on the season

*All odds pulled overnight from Bookmaker/CRIS on Nov. 2.


Steve Petrella: South Carolina-Ole Miss Under 68.5

Noon ET on SECN

The Ole Miss offense has typically struggled against quality defenses. Every team does, but the Rebels’ gaps are glaring. That vaunted passing attack has averaged just 5.9 yards per attempt against Alabama, LSU and Auburn this season, and 12.4 against everyone else. And outside of those three, it hasn’t faced a top 80 defense. South Carolina’s defense ranks top 25 in passing S&P+ and 54th overall.

Plus, it has the perfect profile to keep this game under. The Gamecocks rank 15th in limiting explosiveness but 109th in efficiency. They’ll give Ole Miss everything underneath, but won’t get beat deep. South Carolina does the inverse on offense — efficient, but not explosive.

The Rebels will score, but there won’t be enough possessions for it to hit almost 70 points. South Carolina averages the third-fewest drives per game in the nation, and its opponents average the 15th-fewest because of how it consciously avoids big plays on both sides of the ball.

Sean Newsham: Syracuse-Wake Forest Over 75

Noon ET on CHSS

This could end up being one of the highest scoring games of the season, especially if last year is any indication. In 2017, these two teams met in Syracuse and totaled 107 points and combined for just under 1350 yards — two off-the-charts numbers.

Both teams have poor defenses that rank below 80th in the S&P+ rankings, but that’s not the main reason why I think this game will sail over with ease. It’s all about pace.

Last season, Syracuse was the fastest team in college football, averaging 87.8 plays per game. This year, we have seen Wake Forest jump to the top with an average of 89.7 plays per game and Syracuse isn’t far behind at 83.4. Both teams play with a lightning fast tempo and both have poor defenses.

This game should once again become a fantastic offensive spectacle, potentially leading to triple digits in total points for the second straight year.

Collin Wilson: Maryland +2.5 (vs. Michigan State)

Noon ET on ESPN2

If you read my CW9 piece, you know I put my Maryland pick in The Action Network App right when the line opened on Sunday purely based on the matchup against Michigan State.

I did become a little hesitant after all of the early week drama surrounding the program, but I think it will end up working as a rallying point after seeing how it played out.

Wagering on Maryland came down to a few stats, mainly the Terrapins rush explosiveness ranking third against a Michigan State defense that ranks 101st in defending it. On the flip side of the ball, the Spartans should have plenty of offensive issues thanks to an injured offensive line.

In Week 9, the Michigan State offensive line played without its starting center, guards and lost right tackle Jordan Reid late in the game to a right leg injury. Backup right guard Luke Campbell also left the game with an injury but did return.

Quarterback Brian Lewerke is still questionable for the game, but no matter who the Spartans put under center, it may be a struggle against the Terrapins. Maryland ranks 26th in defensive pass efficiency and seventh defensive pass completion percentage.

Expect Maryland to play an inspired and emotional game.

PJ Walsh: Iowa +2.5 (at Purdue)

3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2

Not only do most major ratings systems (The Action Network’s power ratings, S&P+, etc.) rank Iowa as the better team overall, but Purdue has one of the worst home-field advantages in the FBS.

According to Bet Labs, only Tennessee and Eastern Michigan have lost bettors more units at home than Purdue since 2005. The Boilermakers are 36-54-1 against the spread for -19.55 units at Ross-Ade Stadium over that span.

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Credit:

Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports: Pictured: Iowa tight end Noah Fanta

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