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College Football Expert Betting Picks: Our Staff’s 10 Favorite Week 11 Bets

Nov 10, 2018 8:57 AM EST

Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Sheldrick Redwine

  • Our 10 college football experts give their favorite betting picks for Week 11 of the 2018 season.
  • You'll find totals, favorites and a few moneyline underdogs to back in this week's selections.

Last year, Week 11 featured a number of upsets — in addition to a number of scores that might intrigue you, since we will see the same matchups in Week 11 this season:

  • No. 10 Auburn defeated No. 1 Georgia 43-10
  • No. 2 Alabama pulled out a 31-24 comeback win at Mississippi State
  • No. 13 Ohio State rolled No. 12 Michigan State 48-3
  • No. 24 LSU beat Arkansas 33-10

Whenever you think a November college football slate doesn’t have a lot of intrigue, expect a wild Saturday. Although it’s not like bettors need any added drama to get hyped for a college football weekend.

To help narrow down your final bets, we asked a group of our staffers for their one favorite Saturday pick. Regardless of your betting style, you should find something that catches your eye — or at least helps you make more informed betting decisions for Week 11 — in the picks below.

We will get things started with four afternoon games and then work our way into the night card. And as always, don’t forget about the quick grabs at the end, where you will find a few underdog moneyline shots.

We hope you at least pick up one key nugget of information  that can help you make a more informed wagering decision. I think you’ll find plenty. Let’s jump in.

In case you’re curious, our staff’s favorite college football bets are 62-57-1 +5.05 units on the season

*All odds pulled overnight on Friday Nov. 8.

Ken Barkley: Ole Miss-Texas A&M Over 67

12 p.m. ET on CBS

This is a little sketchy because there are scattered showers and winds headed for College Station, but assuming they clear out before the game (which they are going to as of now), I really like this over.

Texas A&M, rather impressively, has the 34th ranked offense in S&P+, and has done it while facing Auburn, Alabama, Mississippi State, Kentucky and Clemson. That’s insane and a sign that it should shine against inferior opponents.

Well, look who’s coming to town! Ole Miss and its 111th ranked S&P+ defense. This will be the worst defense A&M has faced all season save for the cupcake non-conference games.

And on the other side, the Aggie defense will face the best offense it has seen in the last 5-6 weeks. All those games against grind-it-out SEC teams have allowed this total to stay under 70, but I expect this to get into the 70s with ease.

John Ewing: Mississippi State +24 (at Alabama)

3:30 p.m. ET on CBS

This is a great spot to sell high on Alabama after the Tide rolled LSU 29-0 last Saturday.

Since 2005, teams coming off a win against a top 10 opponent by double-digits have gone 66-94-3 (41%) ATS in their next game. Nick Saban’s teams have gone 4-12 ATS in this scenario.

Furthermore, The Action Network Power Rankings make this game Bama -20, while S&P+ has the Tide winning by 17.8 points. There is clearly value on the underdog.

Danny Donahue: Baylor +14.5 (at Iowa State)

3:30 p.m. ET on FS1

Attacking the bottom part of the Top 25 is among my favorite bets in college football.

Public bettors tend to get carried away when they see a little number next to one team and not the other — regardless of the spread. That opens the door to some fade value on newly ranked teams in the 20-25 range.

When a team in that range plays a decent unranked opponent (.500 or above) and has a public backing (more than 55%), the unranked opponent has gone 164-123-9 (57%) ATS since 2005.



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