College Football Odds, Best Bets: 4 Thursday Picks for Oklahoma vs Arizona, Kansas State vs NC State & More (Dec. 28)
Christian Petersen/Getty Images. Pictured: Arizona’s Michael Wiley.
College football bowl season rolls on with four more games on Thursday.
Our NCAAF writers came through with four best bets for three of Thursday's games, including picks for SMU vs. Boston College, NC State vs. Kansas State and Arizona vs. Oklahoma.
So, read on for all four best bets for Thursday's college football slate — and check back tomorrow for even more college football betting coverage.
Thursday College Football Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Thursday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 11 a.m. | ||
| 11 a.m. | ||
| 5:45 p.m. | ||
| 9:15 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Fenway Bowl: SMU vs. Boston College
After upsetting Tulane in the AAC Championship game, the Mustangs will look to play the role of spoiler one last time as they face off against the hometown Boston College Eagles in Fenway Park.
The thing that jumped out to me about this game is the discrepancy between my model and this game. Now, I could have this wrong, but my model is in line with a variety of other publicly available handicappers as well as our Action Network PRO Model, which is projecting the fair value of this game at -13 in favor of SMU.
There's going to be the normal noise in this bowl game, with opt-outs and motivation concerns, but I think the driving force of the line in this game is the fact that SMU starting quarterback Preston Stone won't play after suffering a season-ending leg injury in the regular-season finale.
No Stone, no problem for the Mustangs.
In the AAC Championship, backup quarterback Kevin Jennings filled in and led SMU to an upset victory over Tulane. Jennings, a redshirt freshman, accounted for 266 yards of total offense but did leave something to be desired with his aerial attack after going 19-for-33 for 203 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions.
I think Vegas is discounting Jennings' ability a little too much here and has trimmed the spread based on his performance in what was a very tough spot against Tulane.
With nearly a month to prepare, I expect a very prepared SMU offense and a better statistical performance from Jennings against a much easier opponent.
The Mustangs won’t have to rely on Jennings solely. Instead, they can look to their 12th-ranked defense that's allowing just 17.4 points per game.
What Jennings and bettors can take solace in is that this Boston College defense isn't Tulane's defense. The Eagles finished the 2023 campaign as the 96th-ranked defense in the nation, giving up 29.7 points per game. For comparison's sake, Tualne finished the season with the 18th-ranked scoring defense, giving up just 18.9 points per game.
As for this being a home game for Boston College, well, the Eagles covered the spread just once at home this season.
I recommend laying points here, as Jennings and SMU shouldn’t have any issues running past Boston College at Fenway Park.
Pick: SMU -10 (Play to -11.5)
Neither of these teams is going to be affected by opt-outs much. SMU is starting second-string quarter Kevin Jennings, but it beat Tulane convincingly with him in the AAC Championship, putting up 26 points against the Green Wave.
Looking at this matchup, we may be able to see the Pony Express light up the scoreboard at Fenway. This Mustangs offense should be able to light up the Eagles through the air, even with Jennings under center.
The Eagles rank 132nd in Passing Play EPA/Play Allowed, 121st in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 115th in passing play explosiveness allowed.
Meanwhile, SMU ranks 10th in Passing Play EPA/Play, 46th in Passing Success Rate and second in passing play explosiveness.
A major reason SMU could go off is Boston College’s inability to put pressure on the quarterback, ranking 127th in total Havoc.
Even if the Mustangs can’t get the offense going through the air, they should be able to move the ball on the ground, where it ranks 35th in Rushing Success Rate.
I love SMU’s offense specifically in this spot, especially at the tempo it plays at, ranking 26th in seconds per play.
Give me SMU to light up the scoreboard and Jennings to have a great game.
Pick: SMU Over 29.5/Jennings Over 203.5 Pass Yds (-115)
Pop-Tarts Bowl: NC State vs. Kansas State
Come for the toaster pastries, stay to see the favorite get toasted.
Much of bowl season comes down to player availability. Opt-outs and transfers have skyrocketed in the last two seasons, and not even the most iconic trophy in all of sports or an edible mascot could entice some of the best players in this matchup to stick around.
Kansas State, however, is in far worse condition than the Wolfpack. The Wildcats are without starting quarterback Will Howard, their two top receiving options, their offensive coordinator and two starters in the secondary, just to name a few.
The reigning ACC Defensive Player of the Year, Payton Wilson, and a starting defensive lineman will miss action for the Wolfpack, but beyond that, it’s business as usual for players of note on Dave Doeren’s squad.
The early departures will force Kansas State to start true freshman quarterback Avery Johnson for just the second time in his career. He split reps with Howard in a few games this year, throwing 35 total passes, but his best asset is far and away his legs.
With an inexperienced quarterback, over half of Kansas State’s receiving output not playing and a 1,000-yard tailback in the backfield, I expect the Wildcats to be fairly one-dimensional. But rushing success may be tough to come by against an NC State team that ranked 16th in run defense.
While points will be at a premium for Kansas State, the Wolfpack have sixth-year quarterback Brennan Armstrong under center. The Virginia transfer is playing the best football of his NC State career since being given back his starting job with three games to go in the season.
Armstrong has his normal cast of characters to turn to on an offense that hit its stride late in the season.
In the five conference games before Armstrong was renamed the starter, NC State averaged 16.2 points per game. In the three games to end the season with Armstrong, the Wolfpack averaged 33.3 points per game.
Kansas State was one of the better defenses in the Big 12, but the unit that played in the regular season is far from the one suiting up in the Pop-Tarts Bowl.
NC State’s offense isn’t going to set any records, but all it has to do is outscore a Wildcats team that is missing its biggest offensive playmakers.
You can always just take NC State with the points, but there are too many absences on Kansas State to keep up with one of the best teams in the ACC.
And if you’re not willing to take a flier on an underdog in a bowl named after a humble toaster pastry, when will you ever?
Pick: NC State ML +120 (Play to +110)
North Carolin sports betting is coming in 2024. Get ready to bet NC State sports in the coming year with the following books: FanDuel, Caesars Sporsbook, bet365, BetMGM, and Fanatics Sportsbook!
Alamo Bowl: Arizona vs. Oklahoma
These teams are coming into this game with huge discrepancies in regular-season production.
Arizona is missing its starting left tackle, but aside from a few non-starters on defense, this team is coming into this game relatively intact.
The Wildcats are also on a six-game win streak, which came after a one-score loss to Washington and an overtime heartbreaker against USC.
On the other side, Oklahoma is missing a laundry list of contributors on offense.
Quarterback Dillon Gabriel has transferred to Oregon, and offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby took the head-coaching job at Mississippi State. Meanwhile, starting offensive linemen Cayden Green, Tyler Guyton and Andrew Raym are all either opting out or transferring.
As mentioned, Arizona is playing at almost full strength in this matchup. This defense should give Oklahoma’s depleted offense a run for its money, particularly in the trenches. The Wildcats rank 40th in Havoc, so expect a lot of pressure to try to shake Jackson Arnold, who's making his first start as Oklahoma’s future quarterback.
On offense, Arizona excels in moving the ball and scoring when entering the opponent’s territory, ranking sixth in Success Rate and 25th in Points per Opportunity.
I’m ecstatic to be taking the Wildcats at under a field goal. Don’t be surprised if this is a brutal end to a disappointing season for the Sooners.
Pick: Arizona -2.5 (PLay to -120)
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