College Football Odds & Futures: Betting Value on Miami’s Win Total
Samuel Lewis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Tyler Van Dyke.
We have finally hit the double-digit mark. We’re just under 99 days until college football is back. Just because there are no games on TV doesn’t mean that college football hasn’t started for our betting pleasures.
The offseason is the time to load up on futures for your portfolio for some opportunity to cash as the season progresses. While it may seem off-putting to tie up cash for the long haul, there are plenty of opportunities to build the bankroll with futures.
I will be releasing a breakdown of them every Friday leading up to the start of the season. I will also be tweeting them out as I add them, as well as putting them in the Action App at Kmalstrom.
First up, the Miami Hurricanes.
While I normally fade new coaches, let alone a whole new staff, I just can’t help but drool over the potential of the Hurricanes this season.
Loaded with talent, new head coach Mario Cristobal has been given the reins to make an instant impact in the ACC this season. With that said, I love the value of a season win total over.
Cristobal brings in a new offensive coordinator as well in Josh Gattis — a huge addition, as Gattis was the one who revived Michigan’s offense en route to a College Football Playoff berth. Establishing a dominant run game, Gattis will make a much-needed impact as Miami’s run game last season left plenty to be desired with no rusher eclipsing 600 yards.
The offense underperformed as a whole last season, finishing outside the top 75 in both Success Rate and Finishing Drives. Both are metrics that Gattis excelled in at Michigan.
While the run game may see an entire overhaul, the Canes have a familiar face returning at quarterback.
What’s a King to a Van Dyke
It’s safe the say the D’Eriq King era was a failure. Touted as a potential Heisman winner, King was one of the most electric quarterbacks in football at Houston. Miami was thrilled when he announced his transfer destination, only to be disappointed with injuries and a lack of production.
Luckily for the Canes, their backup, Tyler Van Dyke, exceeded expectations and cemented himself as their starter. Finishing last season with 2,931 yards and 25 touchdowns on a 62.3% completion percentage, Van Dyke will look to take another step forward with an open field if Gattis can unlock the run game.
Van Dyke ended the second half of the season on a high note, finishing top-10 in passing yards, touchdowns and big-time throws.
Tyler Van Dyke in the second half of the 2021 season:
▪️Top 10 in yards
▪️Top 10 in touchdowns
▪️Top 10 in big time throws
Only QB in the FBS 🙌pic.twitter.com/aBEluPiyCf
— PFF College (@PFF_College) January 18, 2022
With the Hurricanes returning more than 65% of their offensive TARP, Van Dyke and Company will look to put the ACC on notice.
Miami’s Schedule Outlook
With a season win total of 8.5, my focus shifted immediately to the over. A key factor to cashing a season win total over is by sneaking a win when going into the game as an underdog, and Miami has a prime opportunity to do that early in the season.
Miami opens the season with two nonconference opponents in Bethune-Cookman and Southern Miss. After an expected 2-0 start, it gets interesting when Miami goes against Texas AM.
Texas A&M has questions at quarterback and could potentially be in a sleepy spot with Arkansas on deck in Week 4 (check out Collin Wilson’s full breakdown of Miami vs. Texas A&M game here).
With only Clemson left on the schedule as a potential decent-size favorite, we’re gifted plenty of room to cash the over with Miami only needing to go 9-3 — and there’s a hedge spot against Pitt in the last game of the season.
Verdict on Hurricanes
If Van Dyke can replicate his success and Gattis can boost the run game, Miami’s offense will be a force to be reckoned with. The defense will also look to take a step forward as it returns 79% of its unit from last season.
With stability on defense and boom potential on offense, I will confidently take a season win total over of 8.5, as Wilson has Miami at 9.39 and SP+ has the Canes at 8.72.
I will also put a piece on their division future, as the Coastal will be depleted as a whole with North Carolina’s Sam Howell and Pitt’s Kenny Pickett departing for the NFL.
The Turnover Chain may be dead, but Miami is in the midst of a revival.
Picks: Over 8.5 Wins (-115) · Miami to Win ACC Coastal (+150)
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