College Football Odds & Futures: Take the Over on Florida State’s Win Total?

College Football Odds & Futures: Take the Over on Florida State’s Win Total? article feature image

James Gilbert/Getty Images. Pictured: Jordan Travis.

Another Friday, another future.

While we are still a ways away from the start of the college football season, it’s never too late to add futures to the portfolio as the calendar moves closer to the start of the season.

I’ll release a breakdown of them every Friday leading up to the season. I will also tweet them out as I add them @kmalstrom, as well as putting them in my Action App profile.

So far this season, I have highlighted my favorite season win totals, division/conference futures and Heisman picks.

After settling in the Big Ten for the past two weeks, we travel back down south to Tallahassee to take a look at the Florida State Seminoles' season outlook.

Go Noles.

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Jordan Year

From flashing some promise in a high-scoring affair against Notre Dame to embarrassingly losing to JSU in the next game, Florida State saw some continuity once Jordan Travis took the helm and led the team to a 5-2 finish in its last seven games.

Jordan Travis is FAST 💨 😳

— ACC Network (@accnetwork) October 9, 2021

After competing with UCF transfer McKenzie Milton in 2021, Travis now has full control of the offense as he looks to build on a performance that resulted in 1,539 passing yards, 15 touchdowns and six interceptions on a 62.9% completion percentage.

The offense will have plenty of room to improve, as this is a unit that finished 89th in Offensive Success Rate, 96th in Offensive Finishing Drives and 114th in Havoc Allowed.

Havoc sticks out more than anything, as FSU gave up 351 yards on tackles for loss, which was the 12th-worst mark in the nation.

With a favorable TARP rating of 79%, the Seminoles will look to improve sustainable drives as they bring back four familiar faces on the offensive line, along with Wisconsin transfer Kayden Lyles to immediately fill in.

In the rare instances they made it to the red zone last season, they scored on 90% of their trips, with 74% resulting in touchdowns.

The offense features a deep running back room, and improvement in the receiver corps is coming with Oregon transfer Mycah Pittman entering the fold. With plenty of weapons for Travis to work with for a full year, expect FSU’s offense to click — something we haven’t seen in quite some time.

The Lone Highlight

While the offense was abysmal and scrambling for answers for most of the season, it was the defense that willed the Noles to a strong finish. They boasted impressive season-ending ranks, including 34th in Defensive Success Rate, 19th in Defensive Finishing Drives and 29th in Havoc.

Better yet, a majority of this elite unit returns with an outstanding 95% in Defensive TARP.

The secondary highlights the defensive side of the ball, as familiar faces return in Kevin Knowles, Omarion Cooper and Jammie Robinson.

With a solidified back end, FSU brought in more pressure that resulted in 33 sacks and 130 sack yards. While star player Jermaine Johnson is now off to the NFL, the production will look to continue under one of the top transfer prospects in Jared Verse, who finished last season with 14.5 sacks.

He’s not the only impact transfer joining this elite unit, as UCF’s Tatum Bethune looks to immediately slot in at the “Mike” position after finishing last season with 108 tackles.

With continuity at all positions, as well as a pair of impact transfers, FSU’s defense will look to wreak Havoc and give its offense more opportunities to succeed as it settles in and finds its identity.

Verdict on Seminoles

After going a combined 8-13 in the past two seasons, head coach Mike Norvell will look to lead Florida State to bowl eligibility in his third year. A bowl appearance would be the team’s first since 2019.

The schedule looks grueling at first, but it offers plenty of opportunities for FSU to succeed enough for a 7-5 record.

After a tune-up against Duquesne, the Seminoles then travel to LSU in what will be an exciting coin-flip game. FSU then benefits from a week off before traveling to Louisville. Both Clemson and Florida will have to travel to Tallahassee in what looks to be a down year for both programs.

With favorable scheduling spots, Travis will have plenty of opportunities to build upon his 2021 season.

With an Action win total projection of 7.72 and SP+ at 7.81, I will confidently take FSU’s win total of over 6.5.

Pick: Florida State Over 6.5 Wins (-125)

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