College Football Odds, Expert Picks: Collin Wilson’s Saturday Bowl Bets for UCLA vs Boise State, Jax State vs Louisiana

It's the most wonderful time of the year. The opening day of bowl season is upon us, and we have six FBS games on Saturday's schedule to kick off the college football postseason.

Whether you're looking to start bowl season on a high note with Georgia Southern vs. Ohio in the Myrtle Beach Bowl or you want to bet the nightcap of Cal vs. Texas Tech in the Independence Bowl after a long day, Action Network has you covered.

My top two bets for Saturday's college football bowl slate center on the aforementioned New Orleans Bowl, as well as the UCLA vs. Boise State matchup in the LA Bowl that features plenty of transfer portal and coaching staff movement. To stay on top of all of the postseason college football roster movement, be sure to check out our opt-out, transfer portal and injury tracker.

Without further ado, let's dive into my picks for Saturday's college football bowl slate.

Collin Wilson's Saturday Bowl Betting Card

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson is targeting from Saturday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

The New Orleans Bowl has been played since the turn of the century, moving from Lafayette to the Superdome in 2006. R+L Carriers has sponsored the bowl since the move to New Orleans in a game that generally pits the Sun Belt versus Conference USA.

Jacksonville State will play in its first-ever bowl after moving to FBS this season, led by a head coach with plenty of postseason experience. Rich Rodriguez has coached in 12 bowls during his time as head coach of Arizona, Michigan and West Virginia.

However, Rodriguez has generated a poor 3-9 mark against the spread in bowls.

This will be Louisiana's seventh appearance in this bowl since the 2011 season.

Head coach Michael Desormeaux was named head coach of the Ragin' Cajuns two years ago, winning his first-ever game in this very bowl against Marshall.

Conference USA snapped the Sun Belt five-game winning streak last season. Now, an upstart Jacksonville State squad looks to compromise a Louisiana team that makes frequent stops in New Orleans during December.

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Jacksonville State completed a tremendous opening season of FBS play with eight wins, well above a preseason win total of 5.5.

The offense is cut straight from the textbook of a Rodriguez offense. The Gamecocks are always playing with tempo at 21.2 seconds per play, electing to run on 55% of snaps.

They run a heavy amount of inside zone behind quarterback Zion Webb and running back Malik Jackson. Webb has been lethal in passing downs with 21 rushing attempts going over 10 yards this season.

There are injuries to monitor for a defense that pivots between nickel and dime packages with a three-man front.

Edge Jaylen Swain is second on the team in pressures but is listed as doubtful for the New Orleans Bowl. The secondary could be missing cornerback Derek Carter, who contributed six pass breakups this season.

Jacksonville State finished top-five in Defensive Line Yards and Success Rate against the rush, dominating teams that run power and outside zone.

Louisiana started a number of quarterbacks under center this season, settling in with Chandler Fields as the starter in Week 11 against Southern Miss. The fifth-year quarterback has logged seven touchdowns to just a single interception in three games as the starter, dominating Louisiana-Monroe in the finale to become bowl-eligible.

Similar to Jacksonville State, the Ragin' Cajuns are a run-first team on offense. Running back Jacob Kibodi has produced 19 explosive runs while being targeted 13 times out of the backfield.

Louisiana has dominated in all run concepts from inside to outside zone, along with man-blocking schemes.

The Cajuns need to stay in standard downs because that's where they own a rank of 17th in Success Rate. When they get off schedule, that number plummets to 74th.

While the offense has been successful on the ground, the opposite is true for the defense.

Louisiana sits 121st in Defensive Rushing Success Rate, ranking near dead last in Stuff Rate. Nearly every run concept attempted by the opposition has succeeded against the Cajuns defense.

The biggest gap in the 2023 New Orleans Bowl is Louisiana's inefficiency at defending the rush. Not only are opponents successful in that area, but the Ragin' Cajuns are bottom-10 nationally in allowing explosive runs.

The saving grace for Louisiana might be an improved tackle grade, along with Jacksonville State's issues in the red zone. The Ragin' Cajuns rank 14th in broken tackles allowed, indicating the Gamecocks will not accumulate many yards after contact.

Meanwhile, Finishing Drives has been a consistent issue for Rodriguez's bunch, as Jacksonville State averages just 3.7 points on 82 drives that crossed the opponent's 40-yard line.

Other circumstances may limit the number of points on the board for the Gamecocks, as kicker Alen Karajic is the only transfer portal entry for Jacksonville State.

Rodriguez had 21 fourth-down attempts this season, converting only nine. Without any experience at placekicker, expect to see plenty of fourth-down attempts to gain a first down or score a touchdown.

The Action Network projection on this bowl game landed Louisiana by a field goal, but the opening market saw nothing but steam on Jacksonville State.

Even with two possible injuries on the defensive side of the ball, Louisiana has seen a six-point swing in the market.

Look for the Gamecocks defense to limit explosive runs for the Cajuns, while the Louisiana defense tackles well enough to prevent explosives and generate fourth-down stops.

Pick: Louisiana +3 or Better · Under 59.5 or Better

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With Jimmy Kimmel no longer sponsoring the LA Bowl, a former Super Bowl tight end is ready to host and entertain from SoFi Stadium. Starco Brands and Rob Gronkowski will sponsor the battle of Boise State between UCLA, where plenty of singing and dancing is expected.

The spectacle will mask two teams that are undergoing big transitions from a roster and coaching staff perspective.

UCLA head coach Chip Kelly has lost two key members of the staff, as quarterback coach Ryan Gunderson is off to Oregon State and defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn resides with USC.

Boise State has experienced a similar predicament, with head coach Andy Avalos being fired in early November. Defensive coordinator Spencer Danielson had his interim tag removed as head coach after winning the Mountian West Championship over UNLV.

Danielson and Kelly now descend upon Inglewood with two rosters heavily affected by the transfer portal, looking to jump into the offseason with a victory.

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Outside of a depleted coaching staff, UCLA must work around the transfer portal.

The offense will be without the services of quarterback Dante Moore and wide receiver Kam Brown. Although running back Carson Steele is not in the portal, the former Ball State rusher has not participated in bowl practices in the week leading up to the game.

Both Collin Schlee and Ethan Garbers are expected to take snaps under center, utilizing running back TJ Harden and slot receiver Logan Loya.

The bigger question is the strength of the rush defense, a critical handicap against Boise State's run-heavy offense. The Bruins have been fantastic against inside zone but have struggled against teams that run outside zone with a mobile quarterback.

As of writing, the only major contributors on defense in the transfer portal are from the secondary. UCLA will be without cornerback John Humphrey and safety Kamari Ramsey, but the biggest defect might be to the next level.

Lombardi Award winner Laiatu Latu has declared for the NFL Draft, leaving behind a monster 64 pressures and 15 sacks on the season.

While Latu was the best pass rusher in college football, the biggest pieces of the run defense remain. Defensive interior Keanu Williams and linebacker Kain Medrano graded out better than Latu against the run, as Medrano specifically called out the challenge of Boise State as motivation.

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Boise State won its final four games on the schedule, with three coming against bowl-bound teams. A conference championship was unlikely at the start of November, as Boise owned a 4-5 record with a coach who would soon be fired.

Although the Broncos scored more than 30 points a game, the handling of the offense with quarterback Taylor Green was not smooth for offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan. Fast forward to the present, and Boise is the conference champion with Green committed to Arkansas and Hamdan retained for 2024.

That dynamic will put the entire offense on the shoulders of the rushing attack, primarily running back Ashton Jeanty.

The Boise offense utilizes a heavy amount of zone run concepts, but that may be a limitation in a bowl game without a quarterback.

True freshman CJ Tiller will get the start after playing just two snaps this season — a handoff and a kneel. Tiller's ability to run inside and outside zone will completely dictate Jeanty's effectiveness.

After serving as defensive coordinator for Boise State and Oregon, Avalos was fired for the performance of the Broncos defense this season. A plethora of Mountain West teams put at least 30 points on the board against Boise, including Colorado State, San Diego State and Fresno State.

The primary issue with the Boise State defense is tackling fundamentals. The Broncos rank 129th in tackle grading, per PFF, ranking 116th in broken tackles allowed. Those numbers did not shore up in the wake of Avalos' firing, as Boise missed at least 10 tackles in the final five games of the season.

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The Action Network projection would favor UCLA by 4.5 points if this game was played in a vacuum that didn't include roster and coach movement.

The assumption is that the loss of Green will directly affect Boise's ability to run inside and outside zone. In Tiller's seven-minute recruiting video, there are two takeaways:

1. His comfort lined up in the shotgun in 11 personnel showed, as he hit slot targets on a slant but never hit running backs behind the line of scrimmage.
2. Tiller never ran any zone-read option plays during high school.

The Boise State offense is all about getting the ball to Jeanty via read options or passes to the flats or wheel routes. As long as it keys in on Jeanty, there's certainly an advantage for the UCLA defense despite losing multiple starters and its coordinator.

No matter who started under center, UCLA's offense was inconsistent. The Bruins were explosive on early downs and efficient in passing downs, but neither intersected depending on down and distance.

The bread and butter of the passing offense is creating explosive plays for Loya and J. Michael Sturdivant via hitch and out routes.

The biggest issue for UCLA has been converting opportunities to points. The Bruins rank dead last in FBS in regard to red-zone efficiency, scoring just 27 touchdowns on 55 attempts.

UCLA's offensive struggles are expected to continue, especially if trainers deem Steele not healthy enough to play.

Boise State will look to add production around Jeanty in the backfield, but the limitations of a true freshman quarterback are unknown. Tiller will be required to run the read option and hit targets out of the backfield, neither of which appeared on his recruiting film.

Hopefully Gronk has plenty of show tunes queued up for entertainment because points could be hard to come by in SoFi Stadium.

Pick: Under 48.5

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