USF vs. BYU College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions: Cougars Should Cruise Against Bulls

USF vs. BYU College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions: Cougars Should Cruise Against Bulls article feature image
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  • USF travels across the country to face off against BYU.
  • The Cougars are 3-0 with wins over three Pac-12 teams, Arizona, Arizona State and Utah.
  • Alex Hinton breaks down the matchup and provides his best bet.

USF vs. BYU Odds

USF Odds +23.5 (-105)
BYU Odds -23.5 (-115)
Moneyline +1100 / -2200
Over/Under 54 (-115 / -105)
Time 10:15 p.m. ET
TV ESPN2
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

BYU is heading to the Big 12 next season, but first, the Cougars may want to claim the Pac-12 South division title.

The Cougars have begun the season with victories over Arizona, rival Utah and Arizona State. BYU’s three victories have vaulted it up to No. 15 in the AP Top 25.

This week, the Cougars will welcome the South Florida Bulls to Provo, Utah.

The Bulls began the season suffering blowout losses to NC State and Florida. The Bulls were able to get in the win column last week with a win over FCS Florida A&M. It doesn’t get much easier for South Florida with trips BYU this week and SMU next week.

This will be the second-ever meeting between South Florida and BYU. The Bulls won the first meeting 27-23 in Tampa back in 2019.


USF vs. BYU Betting Preview

Saturday, Sept. 25
10:15 p.m. ET
ESPN2

South Florida Bulls

South Florida Offense

The Bulls have struggled mightily on offense this season, averaging 4.7 yards per play and 19.3 PPG.

Head coach Jeff Scott said that true freshman Timmy McClain will start for the second straight game.

McClain took over for North Carolina transfer Cade Fortin, who was completely ineffective in the first two games. The competition is still ongoing, but McClain does offer a running threat with 78 yards on the ground so far.

If the Bulls score a touchdown, it’ll probably be because of running back Jaren Mangham, who has scored five of the team’s six offensive touchdowns.

The Bulls will be banged up at wide receiver for the foreseeable future. Junior wide receiver Latrell Williams suffered a torn ACL against FAMU and slot receiver Bryce Miller injured his ankle.

Williams is out for the season while Miller is a game-time decision this week. Freshmen Omarion Dallison, Sean Atkins, and Jimmy Horn Jr. will be in line for more snaps with the injuries.


South Florida Defense

While the offense has struggled, the defense hasn’t been much better.

The Bulls are allowing 523.7 YPG and 7.4 yards per play. It has been an almost even split with 261 yards coming through the air and 262.7 yards on the ground.

The Bulls do very little to disrupt offenses, with just three sacks this season.

The team is also banged up in the secondary, as defensive back Mekhi LaPointe will be a game-time decision this week, cornerback Christian Williams is still a month away from returning and freshman safety Will Jones II is out for the season.

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BYU Cougars

BYU Offense

If you didn’t already know the Cougars lost the second-overall pick in this year’s NFL draft at quarterback, you may find it hard to believe.

Quarterback Jaren Hall has more than adequately replaced Zach Wilson thus far. Hall has seven touchdown passes against just two interceptions and he’s also the team’s second-leading rusher with 166 yards on the ground.

It helps that his offensive line has been fifth-best in the country in pass blocking.

Wide receiver Neil Pau’u has emerged as the No. 1 receiver with 14 catches for 190 yards and three touchdowns.

Running back Tyler Allgeier is a bruiser and the Cougars’ leading rusher once again, but his YPC are down by three yards from last season (7.5 to 4.1).


BYU Defense

The Cougars have been stingy on defense this season and are surrendering 16.7  points per game, which ranks 29th nationally.

Last week, the Cougars frustrated Arizona State star quarterback Jayden Daniels by being disciplined in their assignments and limiting his rushing lanes. The Cougars also picked him off twice.

Moving forward, the Cougars will be without linebacker Keenan Pili for the season after he suffered a torn ACL. Pili was team’s leading tackler with 31, but the Cougars have good depth at linebacker with Ben Bywater, Payton Wilgar, Max Tooley, Drew Jensen and Josh Wilson.

Safety Chaz Ah You has been a standout in the secondary with 14 tackles and an interception.

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USF vs. BYU Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how USF and BYU match up statistically:

USF Offense vs. BYU Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success
59
114
Line Yards
70
112
Pass Success
117
84
Pass Blocking*
92
95
Big Play
104
103
Havoc**
104
44
Finishing Drives
121
29
*Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)
**Havoc Allowed (Off.) vs. Havoc (Def.)

BYU Offense vs. USF Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success
67
102
Line Yards
95
113
Pass Success
52
109
Pass Blocking*
5
108
Big Play
76
116
Havoc**
112
124
Finishing Drives
56
56
* Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)
** Havoc Allowed (Off.) vs. Havoc (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling
126
80
PFF Coverage
77
37
Middle 8
75
44
SP+ Special Teams
39
33
Plays per Minute
69
79
Rush Rate
57.2% (55)
57.6% (54)

Data via College Football Data (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF & SportSource Analytics.


USF vs. BYU Betting Pick

South Florida has been outgained by 200 YPG and outscored by 15 PPG this season. That includes last week when the Bulls only managed to outgain an FCS opponent by 24 yards.

Now, the Bulls are banged up on both sides of the ball and must travel to Provo and deal with the altitude, time difference and most importantly, a BYU team brimming with confidence after its hot start.

That’s a tough task.

The Cougars’ offensive line has been middle of the pack in the running game. However, it will have a much easier matchup in South Florida after dealing with physical Utah and Arizona State units the last two weeks.

I expect the Cougars to establish the running game early on. That will get Allgeier going and he should find success against a weak South Florida run defense.

That will also set up the play-action game and open deep shots down the field. Hall has a strong arm and he should not face much pressure this week, affording him the time to hit his receivers Pau’u, Gunner Romney and Puka Nacua.

South Florida has been anemic offensively and should it have success moving the ball, BYU ranks in the top 30 in finishing drives. McClain will also be under a ton of pressure from the BYU front seven. All things considered, I like the Cougars to win big this week. I’m locking in -22.5 on BetRivers at -113.

Pick: BYU -22.5 

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