College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Houston vs. Tulsa: Your Betting Guide for This Friday’s AAC Showdown

College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Houston vs. Tulsa: Your Betting Guide for This Friday’s AAC Showdown article feature image
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Ken Murray/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Marcus Jones (8).

  • The Houston Cougars and Tulsa Golden Hurricane meet in an AAC showdown in Friday night college football action.
  • The Cougars entered as underdogs, and their line has been dropping steadily.
  • Keg thinks there's betting value on Houston, and he explains why in his full breakdown below.

Houston vs. Tulsa Odds

Houston Odds +3.5 (-115)
Tulsa Odds -3.5 (-105)
Moneyline +130 / -150
Over/Under 54 (-105 / -115)
Time 7:30 p.m. ET
TV ESPN
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

The Cougars will head into Tulsa on Friday night and try to extend their three-game winning streak.

In their last game, they were able to pull off a comeback win against Navy, while Tulsa pulled out a win over Arkansas State. Houston has won the last two meetings between these teams, a series in which they lead, 25-19, all-time.

Will Houston be able to add another win to this conference series as an underdog on the road? Or will Tulsa get its second win of the season after a rough 0-3 start?


Houston vs. Tulsa Betting Preview

Friday, Oct. 1
7:30 p.m. ET
ESPN

Houston Cougars

Houston Offense

The Cougars are currently averaging 34.5 points per game while accumulating 362.5 yards per game. Last week they made a second-half comeback down 17-7 at halftime to beat Navy, 28-20.

The Houston offense has been steady but mostly against inferior teams, while the offensive line has struggled to keep defenses out of the backfield. The Cougars haven’t been very explosive during that time either.

So far this season, Houston ranks outside the top 100 offensively in; first downs, sacks allowed, yards per play, points, and turnovers.

Quarterback Clayton Tune is completing 71.4% of his passes but has thrown five interceptions to go with his five touchdowns this season. If Houston wants to win this game, it will need to take advantage of a Tulsa defense that allows 30.5 points per game.


Houston Defense

The Houston defense has been impressive so far this season, currently ranked fifth nationally in total defense.

Through four games, the Cougars are allowing only 246 yards and 16.3 points per game. They currently rank eighth in Passing Success and 16th in Rushing Success, while coming in at 45th in defensive red zone efficiency.

This Houston defense looks great statically, and I can’t take anything away from the fact it’s been good, allowing less than 100 pass yards in each of its last three games.

It hasn’t faced an offense like the one being led by Davis Brin, who’s currently averaging 300 yards per game and has thrown five touchdown passes in the last two games.

Friday night will be an important test for this defense, and it will prove whether it’s genuinely a good defense or has benefited from playing teams without a threatening pass offense.

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Tulsa Golden Hurricane

Tulsa Offense

The Tulsa offense has been solid so far this season, averaging 25.3 points per game while accumulating 489 yards per game. It ranks 45th in Passing Success but has struggled to score in the red zone and convert third downs, ranking 122nd nationally in both categories.

Brin has averaged more than 300 yards per game, but just like the quarterback opposite him, he has five interceptions to go with his five touchdowns. This Golden Hurricane offense also ranks outside the top 100 in Finishing Drives.

The term “bend don’t break” could not be more important for the Houston defense if it wants to stop Tulsa.

This team will put together drives and find passing success, but if Houston can continue to stop it in the red zone like previous opponents, that may be the demise of the Golden Hurricane.


Tulsa Defense

Last year, Tulsa had one of the better defensive units in college football, but the thing about last year? It’s not last year anymore.

Tulsa gives up 30.5 points per game while allowing 394 yards per game. It also ranks outside the top 100 in Finishing Drives. And while it played Ohio State and Oklahoma State, this team also gave up 399 yards and lost to UC Davis.

If Tulsa wants to keep it close or have any chance to win this game, it will need the defense to step up massively this week against the solid passing attack of Houston.


Houston vs. Tulsa Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Houston and Tulsa match up statistically:

Houston Offense vs. Tulsa Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 77 93
Line Yards 88 93
Pass Success 62 97
Pass Blocking** 24 35
Big Play 89 69
Havoc 116 36
Finishing Drives 24 120
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Tulsa Offense vs. Houston Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 115 16
Line Yards 125 52
Pass Success 45 8
Pass Blocking** 96 11
Big Play 17 34
Havoc 70 44
Finishing Drives 107 34
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 28 65
PFF Coverage 79 63
Middle 8 80 27
SP+ Special Teams 111 77
Plays per Minute 97 57
Rush Rate 52.7% (75) 52.8% (73)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Houston vs. Tulsa Betting Pick

Houston is 19-7-1 as a road underdog in its last 27 games, while Tulsa is 0-2 ATS as a favorite (2-0 as an underdog) this season.

The under on the total is also 5-2 in Tulsa’s last seven Friday games, 6-1 in the previous seven meetings between these foes, and 6-3 in Houston’s last nine games overall.

I believe this Houston offense will overpower Tulsa’s defense, while the Cougars defense will be able to prove it’s not a result of the inferior teams it has played thus far.

With thunderstorms and rain in the forecast, I liked the under at 57 points in this game, but most books have made adjustments by now, dipping down to 55 or lower at most shops.

Because of that, I will be taking Houston at +3 or better and placing a small bet on the Houston ML at +150 odds or better as well.

Pick: Houston +3 or better

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