Kentucky vs. Florida Odds & Picks: Bet on the High-Flying Gator Offense on Saturday

Kentucky vs. Florida Odds & Picks: Bet on the High-Flying Gator Offense on Saturday article feature image
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Tim Casey/Collegiate Images/Getty Images. Pictured: Kyle Trask.

  • Kyle Trask will look to add to his Heisman resume on Saturday as his Florida Gators host the Kentucky Wildcats.
  • Ace DeCardano thinks Trask and star tight end Kyle Pitts will be too much for the Cats to handle.
  • Check out DeCardano's full betting preview with updated odds below.

Kentucky vs. Florida Odds

Kentucky Odds +24.5 [BET NOW]
Florida Odds -24.5 [BET NOW]
Moneyline +1150 / -3335 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 60.5 [BET NOW]
Time 12 p.m. ET
TV ESPN
Odds updated Saturday morning and via DraftKings, where you can get a $1,000 sign-up bonus today.

It seems fairly simple.

Kyle Trask is looking for a Heisman Trophy to put on the mantle. Kyle Pitts is back and ready to do damage. Kentucky can’t throw the football, and its defense may not be who we thought it was to start the season.

This has all the makings of an old fashioned SEC beatdown.

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Kentucky Wildcats

What happens when you find yourself traveling to Tuscaloosa, Alabama, without 10 of your key contributors? In the case of the Kentucky Wildcats last weekend, 63-3 happens. If they’re not careful, they could be in for a similar fate in Gainesville.

Even with their full complement of players, this offense has been, dare I say, offensive. They rank 120th in yards per pass attempt (5.6), 121st in pass attempts per game (22.0), and unsurprisingly, 121st in passing yards per game (122.2).

To put that total into perspective, Navy has thrown for 121.4 yards per game this season. Kentucky averaged 121.8 passing yards per game last season even though they spent most of the year with a wide receiver under center.

This is not a recipe for staying in a game against a high-flying Gators team that cannot stop the pass.

As has been the case all season, Kentucky is looking to control the football through an above-average run game (42nd in FBS with 4.7 yards per carry) and lean on a defense that, up until last week, was pretty stout. Even after the shorthanded Alabama thrashing, Kentucky still ranks 45th in FBS, allowing 5.4 yards per play and 50th in FBS in yards per point allowed (14.4).

However, last week was no one-off. The Wildcats also allowed 35 points the week prior to none other than the Vanderbilt Commodores. Something tells me these tail-spinning Cats may have problems on Saturday.

Florida Gators

These aren’t your older brother’s Gators. This offense really is reminiscent of your father’s Gators, though. The University of Florida hasn’t had an offense this prolific since Steve Spurrier’s teams were stomping Peyton Manning every year.

During his time in the Swamp, Spurrier did have a multitude of quarterbacks who put up prolific numbers, but the “Head Ball Coach” never had anyone quite like Trask.

Trask has not only been extremely efficient (70.7% completion percentage with 31 touchdowns to only thre interceptions). His 10.4 yards per attempt ranks sixth in FBS and his 2,554 passing yards rank fifth.

Only Zach Wilson from BYU leads Trask in both categories. However, no one in SEC history had as many touchdowns through the first seven games as Trask. That includes Joe Burrow (29) last season.

The key to Trask’s success this season has been his ability to spread the wealth. Despite Trask’s gaudy numbers, Florida has no pass-catcher ranking inside the top 50 in receiving yards.

Although, this is partially due to the fact superstar Pitts has missed the last two contests after sustaining an illegal blow to the head from Georgia safety Lewis Cine. He’ll return this week against Kentucky and join a group that combined for 798 receiving yards in his absence.

If this Florida defense could stop a nosebleed, this team would be undefeated. Unfortunately, the Gator defense hasn’t provided much Gator aid. The Florida defense ranks 81st in FBS in yards per play allowed (5.8), mostly due to allowing 7.9 yards per pass attempt (84th in FBS). Fortunately for the Gators, this Wildcat team has one of the worst pass attacks in all of football.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

No one has been able to stop this Florida offense all season. I don’t see things changing on Saturday. Meanwhile, Kentucky doesn’t have nearly enough firepower to keep it close.

I almost got through the whole article without saying it, but Kentucky is going to be… GATOR BAIT. Take Florida. Lay the points.

Pick: Florida -22.5 (up to 24).

[Bet Florida now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

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