Florida State vs. LSU College Football Odds, Picks & Predictions (Sunday, Sept. 4)
Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images. Pictured: LSU wide receiver Jaray Jenkins.
Florida State vs. LSU Odds
|Florida State Odds|
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
Two brand names in Florida State and LSU will get a nationally-televised prime-time platform to showcase the state of their programs for fans and recruits.
Florida State missed covering in a 47-7 Week 0 victory over FCS Duquesne. The Seminoles allowed just 164 yards and one third-down conversion in the glorified scrimmage, but third-year head coach Mike Norvell will get his true measuring stick against LSU.
Plenty has changed for the Bayou Bengals since Ed Orgeron commented on UCLA's "sissy blue." Just a few years off a Joe Burrow national title, LSU elected to clean house and rebuild, starting with the head coach from Notre Dame.
Brian Kelly enters Baton Rouge with 263 career wins, a couple of College Football Playoff appearances and a new accent. The Tigers are loaded with talent thanks to the transfer portal, accumulating 13 players gained and over 15,000 snaps of experience.
Kelly has added championship talent quickly, but a stiff defensive test from Florida State will be a perfect thermometer for the remaining SEC schedule.
New offensive coordinator Alex Atkins received a promotion after two seasons working on the Florida State offensive line. The key task with the Seminoles comes from reliance on explosive plays.
Quarterback Jordan Travis led a unit that finished 86th in first downs but top-15 in rush explosiveness. With 78% of the offensive line back, there's an expectation that this is the season the Noles will finish in the top 100 in Havoc Allowed.
Jordan Travis 🤝 Johnny Wilson pic.twitter.com/9AcnD4xafM
— Barstool FSU (@FSU_Barstool) August 27, 2022
The defense is receiving plenty of preseason attention with respect to the front seven.
Robert Cooper had one of the highest individual pressure rates of any FBS interior lineman, while safety Jammie Robinson has the versatility to line up out wide or in the slot.
The defense dominated in standard downs with a top-20 rank in Rushing Success Rate and tackle grading. With nearly every tackle and pass breakup back on the roster, Norvell has the team needed to make his first bowl game with Florida State.
The game of musical chairs at quarterback took a few turns this offseason.
Myles Brennan entered the transfer portal before electing to come back to the team. Soon after, Jayden Daniels transferred in from Arizona State. Also in the competition is freshman holdover Garrett Nussmeier.
With Brennan's retirement, LSU is expected to play Daniels and Nussmeier against the Seminoles.
Coach O in August “This kid is dynamite”
— Collin Wilson (@_Collin1) November 14, 2021
The biggest point of contention comes on the offensive line. With less than 40% of snaps returning from last season, a youth movement is expected in the trench. Daniels will likely get the start thanks to his mobility, gaining over 1,000 scramble yards and 552 designed yards during his career as a Sun Devil.
All eyes on the LSU defense will focus on a defensive line that has the potential to be the best in the SEC.
Fifth-year senior Ali Gaye continues to terrorize tackles from the edge position, while Maason Smith returns to tackle after an injury-plagued freshman season.
The secondary boasts the most transfer players of any other unit, including Sevyn Banks from Ohio State and Joe Foucha of Arkansas.
Florida State vs. LSU Pick
There are plenty of wild cards from both programs.
Florida State is expected to continue struggles against the explosive pass, while LSU will look to field a steady rushing attack after finishing 111th in Rushing Success Rate last season.
If there's a known between these two teams, it's the defensive lines against the opposing offensive lines.
Doing some early scouting on LSU DL Jaquelin Roy (99). I think he’s exactly what the #Bears want in a DL.
Quick off the ball, tremendous finesse in his hands, good body control. He can play all over the DL but think he’s a killer 3-tech in the league. pic.twitter.com/gwctc0R2Mf
— Jacob Infante (@jacobinfante24) June 18, 2022
LSU will field true freshman Will Campbell at the blindside tackle position. Left guard Tre'Mond Shorts steps up in competition after previously playing at East Tennessee State. Garrett Dellinger had 228 snaps at tackle last season but is expected to play center after never logging a snap of experience.
Kelly noted that the offensive line was the biggest question mark of the team, which is music to the ears of a Florida State defensive line that ranked 19th in Rushing Success Rate last season.
Action Network projects this game at LSU -2.5, giving no value in the market. Considering both Travis and Daniels will be under heavy pressure from the opposing defensive line, expect scoring to be at a premium.
Look to take a first-half under before coordinators adjust and the explosive plays come away from the trench.