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LSU vs. Florida Odds, Picks: Betting Value on Brian Kelly’s Tigers (Oct. 15)

LSU vs. Florida Odds, Picks: Betting Value on Brian Kelly’s Tigers (Oct. 15) article feature image

Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images. Pictured: LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels.

LSU vs. Florida Odds

Saturday, Oct. 15
7 p.m. ET
LSU Odds
-110o / -110u
Florida Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

We have big-time SEC football down in the Swamp on Saturday night, as Brian Kelly and the LSU Tigers take on Billy Napier's Florida Gators. Both teams are 4-2 on the season but have had very different paths thus far.

The Tigers rattled off four wins in a row before getting throttled by No. 8 Tennessee last week. The loss was rough all around, as the LSU defense surrendered 40 points and over 500 yards. It'll have another explosive quarterback to contain this week, but it should be doubly prepared.

As for the Gators, they come into this matchup off of a seven-point victory over Missouri. Florida ran through the Tigers on the ground, attempting only 14 passes — but it did finish with 7.2 yards per rush.

The matchup this week is much better, and it'll be interesting to see if the Gators can sustain their rushing attack. In this war waged in the trenches, who will come out on top? Let's dive in to find out.

LSU Tigers

Despite the bad loss last week, LSU has started to find its offensive identity. While a rush-heavy scheme may be to the dismay of All-American caliber wide receiver Kayshon Boutte, it's what the Tigers need to do to win.

The ground is where they'll have a significant edge in this matchup.

LSU should be able to pick up yards on the ground at will, as it ranks sixth in Line Yards compared to Florida's mark of 87th. Its tremendous offensive line play has also propelled it to the No. 8 spot in Rushing Success Rate.

On the other side, the Gators have been ravaged on the ground, entering this game with a rank of 105th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 113th in yards per rush allowed.

So, whether it's quarterback Jayden Daniels or the quartet of running backs the Tigers will deploy, any and all rushers should have success.

What a rush-heavy attack will also do is keep the explosive Florida offense off of the field. LSU typically likes to use tempo and is the 42nd-fastest team in the country, but don't be surprised if it slows its pace down in the first half and sustains some methodical drives.

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Florida Gators

This Gators offense has depended on quarterback Anthony Richardson's play style.

We've seen flashes of his unique ability to extend plays and make things happen outside of the pocket. However, we've also seen a couple of games in which he's elected to be more of a pocket passer.

If the Gators want to win this game, they'll need to let Richardson do what he does best on the ground because the Tigers have been solid against the pass. LSU enters this matchup ranked 22nd in Passing Success Rate and 31st in opponent completion percentage allowed.

On the ground, though, it's a much different story. Florida has been one of the best rushing teams in the nation, as it's averaged six yards per carry while ranking ninth in Rushing Success Rate.

While LSU may be at a bit of a disadvantage against Florida's rushing attack, it should be well-prepared for Richardson's mobility. The Tigers are just a week removed from playing Tennessee's Hendon Hooker, and with poor results aside, they have experience and a scheme developed around containing mobile quarterbacks.

LSU vs. Florida Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how LSU and Florida match up statistically:

LSU Offense vs. Florida Defense
Rush Success8105
Line Yards687
Pass Success81100
Pass Blocking**8642
Finishing Drives6163
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Florida Offense vs. LSU Defense
Rush Success965
Line Yards1145
Pass Success6122
Pass Blocking**2130
Finishing Drives8321
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling7314
PFF Coverage5545
SP+ Special Teams10661
Seconds per Play25.4 (42)26.8 (72)
Rush Rate50.7% (82)56.0% (49)
Data via (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

LSU vs. Florida Betting Pick

This is a buy-low spot for LSU here, as it could not have had a worse outcome against Tennessee as a three-point underdog.

The Tigers should rebound well on the defensive side of the football. They have fresh experience to rely on and should positively regress back to who they were, as they rank 21st in Defensive Finishing Drives and allow an average of 19 points per game.

On the offensive side of the ball, LSU should move the ball methodically with its rushing attack to overwhelm this Gators defense.

The market has started to move this line, so if you can't find a +3, the moneyline is the best value.

Pick: LSU +3 or Better

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