The dreaded letdown spot is a real thing in college football.
When teams go all in emotionally and capture a season-defining win, it’s only human for the air to slip out of the balloon the following week. Two teams fit that bill in Week 4.
Let's dive into the college football odds and my NCAAF picks for Week 4 of the season.
Temple vs Georgia Tech Pick
| Temple Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+23.5 -102 | 53.5 -105o / -115u | +1300 |
| Georgia Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-23.5 -118 | 53.5 -105o / -115u | -2800 |
Georgia Tech head coach Brent Key is approaching hero status in the gambling community. Since taking the reins in Atlanta back in 2023, Key and the Yellow Jackets are 11-5 ATS as underdogs with eight outright upsets.
His win percentage, straight up, against ranked opponents is a ludicrous 7-1 (.875). Situationally, he’s a sure bet when punching up.
But his record against unranked opponents is a pedestrian 14-15 straight up. As a home favorite, he simply treads water ATS with a 4-4-1 mark in the past two-and-a-half seasons.
With a decidedly manageable schedule the rest of the way, Key would be wise to avoid unnecessary hits for his play-making but oft-injured quarterback Haynes King.
The Yellow Jackets' QB1 came off the injured list last week and ran the ball 25 times against a talented and hard-hitting Clemson defense. Wrapping him in bubble wrap this week against Temple would make sense.
Speaking of the Owls, Temple is coming off a humbling 42-3 loss to Oklahoma on Saturday. But there were still signs that the Owls profile as a quality underdog bet.
For the third straight game, Temple avoided a giveaway. Plus, its coaching upgrade shone through earlier in the season when it stomped UMass and Howard in back-to-back weeks.
Head coach K.C. Keeler has won a pair of national titles at the FCS level. And last season at Sam Houston, he finished 4-2 as an underdog with four outright upsets.
The stage is set for a sleepy performance from GT, and I have faith in Temple being well-coached. I would play the Owls at any number north of 23.
Pick: Temple +23 or Better
Georgia State vs Vanderbilt Pick
| Georgia State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+26.5 -105 | 53.5 -108o / -112u | +1400 |
| Vanderbilt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-26.5 -115 | 53.5 -108o / -112u | -3200 |
The secret is out on the Commodores. Diego Pavia and company are big game hunters.
Vandy notched its second win over a top-15 opponent in a calendar year on Saturday when it dominated a wounded South Carolina team in Columbia.
Head coach Clark Lea gets his team up for these big moments. Even in defeat, the 'Dores took Texas and LSU 15 rounds last season.
But when it’s time to punch down, Vandy goes through the motions a bit. Actually, it’s worse than that.
Last fall, the ‘Dores upset the No. 1 team in the country a week after losing to Georgia State outright. And later in that same season, they were tied in the fourth quarter with a 3-9 Ball State squad.
Can Georgia State catch them napping again? With an upgrade at quarterback, they sure can.
TJ Finley has one of the wildest CVs in all of college sports. The 23-year-old passer is at his sixth school since 2020. When he isn’t losing a quarterback battle or running afoul of the law, he’s actually been a very good college quarterback.
At Texas State, he boasted a 3:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio while leading the Bobcats to eight wins two seasons ago. He didn’t play in the Panthers' humbling 63-7 loss at Ole Miss to start the year, but now he’s in a two-quarterback rotation with Cameran Brown, who has looked great in limited action for GSU.
The former Texas Tech Red Raider has accounted for five total touchdowns while protecting the football (0 TOs).
Whether it’s Finley or Brown running the show, either passer is lucky to be throwing to Ted Hurst. The senior wideout ranks sixth in the G5 with 275 receiving yards through three games.
I’ll take the Panthers plus the points and bank on another uninspired performance from Vandy as a sizable favorite.
Pick: Georgia State +26.5
