Welcome to our weekly Havoc Rankings, where defensive chaos and offensive discipline are used to predict the outcome of a game.
Virginia Tech continues to close the gap on New Mexico in terms of defensive chaos, but the rise of Havoc in the LSU defense will play a factor against Alabama in Week 10.
There's a new leader in the Havoc Allowed category, as a number of Air Force fumbles have crowned Notre Dame as the safest offense.
For those unfamiliar, Havoc is the collection of stats that can derail offensive momentum on the defensive side of the ball, including tackles for loss, pass breakups, forced fumbles, interceptions, and sacks.
Havoc allowed, meanwhile, is a stat used to quantify an offense's ability to avoid chaos that creates a negative play. Offenses that are elite in Havoc allowed have a low number of fumbles, interceptions, and tackles for loss allowed.
Let's take a look at our college football picks for Marshall vs. Georgia Southern and Week 10 Havoc Rankings for the upcoming week.
College Football Picks, Havoc Rankings
Marshall vs. Georgia Southern Odds
| Marshall Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -112 | 54.5 -115o / -105u | +310 |
| Georgia Southern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -108 | 54.5 -115o / -105u | -395 |
One game in the Sun Belt should have Havoc on display when Marshall visits Georgia Southern.
The Eagles are in the thick of the East Division race as the only team with a single conference loss. The Thundering Herd will be in a back-to-back travel spot after a victory at Old Dominion in Week 9.
Despite the victory, there are signs that Marshall could be in for a bumpy November.
Old Dominion scored 23 points against Marshall in Week 9, the highest offensive output for the Monarchs against any FBS team this season.
Havoc allowed has been a crucial point for the Marshall offense, fielding a rank of 126th this season. The core of the problem comes in ball security with 16 fumbles this season.
Georgia Southern should be opportunistic on defense, not just as the 20th-best Havoc unit in the nation but as a team that also ranks 11th in forced fumbles.
An interception from the Eagles defense also sealed their most recent victory over Appalachian State.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings project Georgia Southern as a 9-point favorite, but there are other advantages against the Thundering Herd.
Quarterback Max Johnson leads a passing attack that ranks top-50 in Success Rate, so the Eagles should take advantage of a Marshall defense that's outside the top 120 in both Passing Success Rate allowed and Pass EPA allowed.
Pick: Georgia Southern -10
