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Five of the top seven teams in college football lost on Saturday, marking the first time we saw that much upheaval at the top of the polls in the 90-year history of the AP Poll.
With so many upsets occurring on one fall Saturday, it’s only natural to question everything.
But while fans are wondering who they can trust in the coming weeks, I’m putting my faith in three teams to deliver down the stretch.
Let's take a look at my midseason College Football Playoff picks and CFP predictions in my midseason parlay.
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Indiana, BYU & UCLA to Make College Football Playoff
+358 at DraftKings
Let’s start with the value proposition. The payout attached to this parlay is fairly generous.
ESPN’s Allstate Playoff Predictor believes that IU has an 81% chance of making the field, followed by 71% for BYU and 40% for UCLA. The fair market payout for all three making the playoff should be +335, based upon ESPN FPI’s estimates.
The website PlayoffStatus.com is a bit more bullish on this trio, marking up the Cougars’ (70%), Hoosiers’ (60%) and Bruins’ (57%) chances all above a coin-flip.
Based on those percentages, this DraftKings payout would be 40 cents above fair market value. Real-time prediction markets like Kalshi are far stingier, pricing this three-leg parlay in the +265 neighborhood.
Beyond the value presented, I like this parlay for three reasons: Scheduling, projected carnage and coaching.
On the scheduling front, this trio plays just three ranked opponents out of their final 17 games collectively. Both Indiana and UCLA face No. 16 USC at home, and BYU travels to Utah for the Holy War on Nov. 7.
Outside of that, it’s relatively smooth sailing for this bunch. And fortunately, UCLA and IU don’t play in the regular season.
On the “projected carnage” front, there’s reason to believe that the recent flurry of top-10 losses is just the beginning.
Ohio State will be without Julian Sayin for the foreseeable future, placing the Buckeyes in a vulnerable position.
Programs like Notre Dame and Miami will be meeting on the field next month, and the SEC is set to cannibalize itself with nine top-25 teams in action and a handful of unranked squads looking to play spoiler — Auburn, Mississippi State and South Carolina chief among them.
But this isn’t just about dodging upsets. I have supreme faith in the coaches I’m backing to reach the College Football Playoff.
Curt Cignetti has gone 33-3 at Indiana, with two playoff trips and the program’s first national title in his first two seasons in Bloomington.
Brigham Young’s Kalani Sitake, fresh off the biggest win of his 11-year career in Provo, is a great example of a program builder. His Cougars are 29-4 in their last 33 games and have reached the school’s highest ranking (No. 2) since their national title season in 1984.
And did I mention, they’ve done all this without their best offensive player? LJ Martin, the Big 12’s 2025 Offensive Player of the Year, is nursing an ankle injury but is expected back in time for their game against Utah.
And finally, we have Bob Chesney, UCLA’s leading man. The 49-year-old has found success at virtually every level of football. He rose from Division III to Division II to the FCS and finally made his jump to FBS football in 2024.
Along the way, he helped D-III Salve Regina achieve the school’s first national ranking, guided D-II Assumption to three straight playoff appearances and led FCS Holy Cross to the program’s first top-10 finish in 31 years.
At James Madison, his Dukes crashed the CFP in his second season. That’s why I don’t view his work in Westwood as a flash in the pan. His Bruins are undefeated and fearsome on defense.
Selection Sunday is still 47 days away, but the pricing on this parlay won’t last. Every win shortens this number, so pounce before this trio notches three more wins on Saturday.
