Week 5 of the college football season is here, and it's a big one.
So, with that, I broke down some of the biggest games of the day — including No. 17 Alabama vs. No. 5 Georgia and No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 3 Penn State — and came through with a pick for each.
But before that, we'll start in Fayetteville, where the Arkansas Razorbacks look to bounce back from a loss to Memphis when they take on the No. 22 Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
Then, we'll head to the Big Ten, as Demond Williams Jr. and the Washington Huskies host Jeremiah Smith and the No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes.
Finally, we'll close things out with the aforementioned ranked matchups in Alabama vs. Georgia and Oregon vs. Penn State.
With so much to get to, let's take a look at my Week 5 college football picks and NCAAF predictions for Saturday, September 27.
College Football Picks, Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson is targeting from Saturday's slate of Week 5 games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Notre Dame vs Arkansas Pick
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish take on the Arkansas Razorbacks in Fayetteville, Arkansas, on Saturday, Sept. 24. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ABC.
Notre Dame is favored by 4 points on the spread with a moneyline of -180. Arkansas, meanwhile, is a +4 underdog and comes in at +150 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 64.5 points.
Here’s my Notre Dame vs. Arkansas prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 27.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
With two losses to start the season, Notre Dame will more than likely need to win out to return to the College Football Playoff.
Both sides of the ball have taken a step back from last year's national title run, but in particular, the offense has struggled to create a clean box score. The offensive line has allowed 15 tackles for loss while also grading 122nd in PFF pass blocking.
True freshman quarterback CJ Carr has dodged 23 pressures in just 83 dropbacks.
On the other side of the ball, Notre Dame returned to basics against Purdue, allowing running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price to combine for 231 rushing yards and five touchdowns.
On the other side of the ball, the change from Al Golden to Chris Ash at defensive coordinator has been one of the biggest drop-offs in college football. A once-swarming secondary now grades 115th in coverage and 118th in allowing pass explosives.
The Havoc department has been lifeless as well, as the Irish rank second-to-last in tackles for loss, forced fumbles and pass breakups.
The defensive front has struggled to defend any run concept that's not inside zone, particularly against teams that run man-blocking schemes.
Arkansas Razorbacks
The buzzards are swirling around the coaching staff of the Arkansas Razorbacks, as head coach Sam Pittman has acknowledged outside noise that's affecting the locker room atmosphere.
A one-score loss at Ole Miss could be forgiven, but a late turnover on the final drive of the Memphis game sank the Hogs to a 2-2 record on the season.
Pittman acknowledged that the defense's effort was subpar, as the Razorbacks missed 12 tackles and had no presence at the line of scrimmage.
Defensive coordinator Travis Williams has a significant issue with Arkansas' defensive line, which ranks 122nd in opponent rush efficiency and ground explosives allowed.
The nickel package has had no luck defending inside zone read concepts, achieving a Success Rate under 40%.
The great news for Arkansas is that it has an elite offense led by coordinator and potential interim head coach Bobby Petrino.
Quarterback Taylen Green leads a unit that's top-20 in nearly every category, from Success Rate to EPA. The sixth-year Boise State transfer leads the team in rushing yards, deriving 234 yards from designed calls and 145 yards off scrambles.
Running back Mike Washington Jr. has been the bell cow in man and zone read rushing attempts, while wide receiver O'Mega Blake checks in at 2.6 yards per route run on 35 targets from Green.
Notre Dame vs Arkansas Prediction
In 2025, Notre Dame and Arkansas have both demonstrated their inability to defend against the rush. A look at the run concepts suggests that any player carrying the ball could have a big day.
Arkansas runs man-blocking schemes for Washington and Green more than any other concept, an area in which Notre Dame has a 35% Success Rate. Washington and Green have eclipsed 60 rushing yards in every Razorback game and have become an add as rushing props.
Conversely, Notre Dame runs a balance of inside and outside zone read concepts. The Arkansas defensive line has been putrid against inside zone, creating an opportunity for investment on Irish running backs.
Both Price and Love get zone read rushing attempts, with Price being the more explosive of the two so far. Both players should be added as rushing prop over investments, with a look at Price for an anytime touchdown.
Action Network's betting power ratings project this game at Notre Dame -4 with a total of 63.5, providing no value to the current market.
Arkansas has the better offense and special teams to this point in the season. The Hogs could be overlooked by the Irish after their loss to Memphis, so Fayetteville is expected to draw one of the largest crowds in Donald W. Reynolds Stadium history.
Any Arkansas pregame wager would require a live hedge on the Irish as these offenses march up and down the field on the ground.
Pick: Arkansas +4 · Taylen Green Over 51 Rushing Yards · Mike Washington Jr. Over 60 Rushing Yards · Jadarian Price Over 70 Rushing Yards · Jadarian Price Anytime TD (-135)
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Ohio State vs Washington Pick
The Ohio State Buckeyes take on the Washington Huskies in Seattle, Wash. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
Ohio State is favored by -8.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -325. Washington, meanwhile, is a +8.5 underdog and comes in at +255 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/unders sits at 51.5 points.
Here’s my Ohio State vs. Washington prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 27.
Ohio State Buckeyes
The top team in the nation has enjoyed multiple weeks of silence since its season-opening victory over Texas.
Ohio State smashed Grambling and Ohio by a combined score of 107-9, as a single touchdown to Texas is all the Buckeyes defense has allowed this season.
There are questions remaining on the Ohio State defense from the box score against the Longhorns, namely allowing methodical drives. OSU allowed half of Texas' 10 possessions to feature two or more first downs.
The Texas rushing attack was stuffed on just 16% of attempts — only half of the national average. Ohio State ranks 89th in Defensive Line Yards, an indication that opposing offenses might have an advantage in the trenches.
Offensive coordinator Brian Hartline has called one of the slowest tempos in the nation, averaging 31.4 seconds per play.
The explosive plays have been missing from the offense, ranking bottom-15 in pass EPA through three games.
The offensive line failed to give quarterback Julian Sayin breathing room against Ohio in Week 3, resulting in eight pressures and a sack. The sophomore signal-caller has as many interceptions as big-time throws so far this season.
The good news is he boasts one of the most elite wide receiver units in the nation, as Jeremiah Smith holds an explosive 4.4 yards per route run.
Washington Huskies
Washington has one of the easiest strength of schedules in the country, granting head coach Jedd Fisch an undefeated record heading into conference play.
The Huskies have been electric on offense, more than doubling the national average in available yards gained.
The Huskies run the ball at a 64% clip, led by the explosive duo of running back Jonah Coleman and quarterback Demond Williams. Coleman has already scored nine touchdowns through three games, averaging a whopping 5.1 yards after first contact.
Washington ranks top-10 in numerous offensive categories but comes in as the best FBS team in Havoc allowed and Quality Drives allowed.
A top-15 rank in Rush and Pass EPA signals that Williams is playing at a higher level than he did in his freshman season. The sophomore has yet to record a turnover-worthy play through the air while posting a near-even split of 259 rushing yards on designed calls and scrambles.
New defensive coordinator Ryan Walters has flipped the script from his predecessor, Steve Belichick, now producing against the run and allowing explosives in the air.
Teams that have run outside zone have had no luck against Washington, but Cover 1 has produced a mid-FBS grade for the secondary, per PFF.
The biggest concern for Washington is Finishing Drives allowed, ranking as a bottom-five defense in that area. Opponents have crossed the Huskies' 40-yard line on 10 possessions, averaging 5.5 points per trip.
Ohio State vs Washington Prediction
Williams and Coleman will exclusively run inside and outside zone read concepts straight at the Ohio State defense. Washington has one of the highest efficiencies of inside zone at a 73% Success Rate, while outside zone has produced an explosive play on one of every three attempts.
This will be problematic for an Ohio State defense that ranks 118th in Defensive Stuff Rate.
Second-level tackling could also come into play for the Buckeyes, who own a PFF tackling rank of 59th. Texas proved that Ohio State can lose the war in the trenches after averaging 4.6 yards per carry.
If Sayin can throw against Washington's nickel package that mixes man and Cover 1 schemes, Ohio State may have an answer in Husky Stadium. Sayin has a limited sample of 16 passing attempts against Cover 1 coverage but has produced a low 44% Success Rate.
Action Network's betting power ratings call for Washington +6.5, giving value to the current market.
Ohio State must shore up the defensive front against zone read concepts, while Washington will keep a single high safety in hopes of picking off Sayin.
Pick: Washington +8 or Better
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Alabama vs Georgia Pick
The Alabama Crimson Tide take on the Georgia Bulldogs in Athens, Georgia, on Saturday, Sept. 27. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Georgia is favored by 3 points on the spread with a moneyline of -160. Alabama, meanwhile, comes into the game as a +3 underdog and sits at +135 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under is set at 52.5 points.
Here’s my Alabama vs. Georgia predictions and college football picks for Saturday, September 27.
Alabama Crimson Tide
There's good news on two fronts for the Alabama offense, starting with the health of Jam Miller. The starting running back will see action for the first time this season against Georgia after recording seven touchdowns and 14 explosives in 2024.
The offensive line grades 11th-best in stuff rate, indicating that Miller will help the Crimson Tide improve on a top-40 rank on third-down conversions.
The second positive is the work quarterback Ty Simpson has put in to this point. Alabama ranks as the second-highest passing offense in the nation in contested catches allowed.
Simpson has an adjusted completion rate of 82% while throwing nine touchdowns. He's also yet to record a turnover-worthy play.
After four drops in the opening loss to Florida State, Alabama has just two drops over the last eight quarters of play.
Defensive lineman Tim Keenan III will also play for the first time this season, fortifying an Alabama front that has a pass rush rank of 126th. The senior was one of the best run defenders in all of FBS in 2024, as the Tide needed a boost after severe struggles at the interior position defending inside zone.
Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia's offense deserves plenty of credit for surviving in a road victory against Tennessee. The Bulldogs posted 5.8 yards per play and a healthy 60% success rate in standard downs.
Georgia converted nearly half of its third downs thanks to an average distance of 5.7 yards.
The Bulldogs have struggled to find protection from the right side of the offensive line, as quarterback Gunner Stockton has seen 31 pressures on 106 dropbacks.
The Georgia defense has struggled to start 2025, particularly against the pass. The Bulldogs generally send a low amount of blitzes, but they've been unable to produce a pass rush inside the top 120 of FBS teams.
A coverage grade of 93rd isn't just from the potent Tennessee offense, as Austin Peay and Marshall combined for five explosive passes against the Bulldogs' secondary.
Cornerbacks Joenel Aguero, Daylen Everette and Daniel Harris have failed to create a pass breakup. The trio have combined to allow 21 of 31 targets to be caught for a total of 248 yards.
Alabama vs Georgia Prediction
The addition of Keenan to the defensive line and Miller to the Alabama offensive backfield will pay dividends against Georgia.
Any improvement to the rushing attack of Alabama should clear up even more time for Simpson in passing attempts. Georgia ranks outside the top 100 in defensive pass efficiency and is now faced with three underperforming cornerbacks against wide receiver Ryan Williams.
Although Georgia struggles in defensive finishing drives, Alabama has been one of the worst in the nation. The Crimson Tide have allowed 4.4 points to opposing offenses crossing the 40-yard line.
To this point, Alabama has been weak against opponents' inside zone while producing a 45% Success Rate.
Action Network's betting power ratings predict that this game will have Georgia as a 3-point favorite with a total of 61 points.
Considering the nature of the first Kalen DeBoer and Kirby Smart battle in 2024 — along with inefficient corner play from Georgia — this game could see plenty of scores.
Pick: Over 53 or Better
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Oregon vs Penn State Pick
The Oregon Ducks take on the Penn State Nittany Lions in University Park, Pennsylvania, on Saturday, Sept. 27. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC.
Penn State is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -170. Oregon, meanwhile, comes in as a +3.5 underdog and is +140 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 52 points.
Here’s my Oregon vs. Penn State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 27.
Oregon Ducks
The Ducks have been nothing but phenomenal to open the season, despite non-covering efforts the past two games against Northwestern and Oregon State.
The offense ranks top-five in pass blocking and Havoc allowed, along with Quality Drives and Finishing Drives.
UCLA transfer quarterback Dante Moore has completed 75% of his passes, producing 10 touchdowns and just a single turnover-worthy play.
True freshman Dakorien Moore has been the benefactor, averaging 3.2 yards per route run while leading all targets in first downs and missed tackles forced.
Defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi has kept Oregon consistent, providing stiff resistance against the pass with a bit of leakiness against the run.
The Penn State offense has shown a severe struggle in creating pass explosives, and now heads directly into a Ducks secondary that's top-15 in coverage and defensive pass efficiency.
The area of concern comes against the run, specifically against outside zone read concepts. Oregon has a low 43% Success Rate against teams using outside zone, also fielding a Stuff Rate rank of ninth in FBS.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State has put up impeccable offensive numbers against one of the easiest schedules in the nation.
The rushing attack of Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen continues to power the offense after a semifinal run just a season ago. Allen has had the better season to date, averaging 5.5 yards after first contact while forcing 14 missed tackles on 34 rushing attempts.
Quarterback Drew Allar enters the game off a horrendous Week 3 performance in which he produced two turnover-worthy plays against Villanova.
Both transfer wide receivers Kyron Hudson and Trebor Pena have failed to post explosive numbers in the passing game, leaving the bulk of the offense to the ground attack.
As for the defense, the switch from Tom Allen to Jim Knowles at defensive coordinator has seen zero slip in the defensive numbers.
The Nittany Lions are second-best nationally in Finishing Drives allowed and own top-10 ranks in Havoc, Defensive Line Yards and hard stops, along with a rank of 21st in tackling.
Cornerback play will be crucial against Oregon. Both Daryus Dixson and Jahmir Joseph are two of the highest-graded coverage players at their position. King Mack, a top-20 individual tackler of all safeties, per PFF, complements that duo.
Oregon vs Penn State Prediction
The handicap of Oregon vs. Penn State comes down to whether each defense can win specific battles.
Oregon consistently wins the outside battle with Moore's passing to wideout targets. However, thanks to the coverage provided from Dixson and Joseph, the Ducks will be throwing into one of the most volatile defenses in FBS.
Expect the Nittany Lions to continue running plenty of Cover 3, which should keep Oregon from creating explosives.
Penn State holds a supreme advantage in the running game. Oregon has struggled to contain outside zone read against Oregon State, Northwestern and Oklahoma State.
The Nittany Lions have dominated with outside zone, averaging a 66% Success Rate against opposing defenses.
Look for Allen and Singleton to take over the Penn State offense against an Oregon defensive line that has failed against subpar competition.
Pick: Penn State -3 (-120 or Better)
