Saturday football is here, and with Indiana welcoming North Texas to Bloomington, South Carolina hosting Kent State, and Auburn and Baylor featured in a marquee matchup in Atlanta, there's a great lineup of games to add to your betting card.
I've zeroed in on the signal callers with three player props for Saturday, including picks for Indiana's Josh Hoover, South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers, and Baylor's DJ Lagway.
With that said, let's dive into my top three college football player props and NCAAF picks for Week 1 on Saturday, Sept. 5.
College Football Player Props, Picks
- LaNorris Sellers Under 277.5 Passing Yards (-115 · bet365)
- Josh Hoover Under 11.5 Rushing Yards (-115 · bet365)
- DJ Lagway Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+125 · Hard Rock)
LaNorris Sellers Under 277.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Sellers has never actually approached this number on a per-game basis, even in his best stretches.
Across the 2025 season, he averaged 225.3 passing yards per game, and while South Carolina overhauled the offensive line and brought in Kendal Briles as offensive coordinator to fix last year's issues, Briles' new "veer-and-shoot" system is built to lean on Sellers' legs and quick game rather than push him into 30-plus dropback game scripts.
That's a fundamentally different shape of offense than one that racks up big air yardage totals.
The opponent and receiving corps make the case for the under even stronger. Kent State gave up 57.3 points per game to Power 4 opponents last season, which points toward a lopsided South Carolina win rather than a shootout. A lopsided win usually means fewer second-half pass attempts, not more.
South Carolina is also breaking in a rebuilt receiver room after losing Jayden Sellers and Jayden Gibson to season-ending injuries and Vandrevius Jacobs to the transfer portal, leaving Nyck Harbor and a mix of new faces like Nitro Tuggle to sort out chemistry with Sellers in Week 1.
Between a run-first scheme, a heavy favorite spot against an overmatched opponent, and receivers still building rapport with their quarterback, a big passing yardage day looks unlikely out of the gate.
Pick: LaNorris Sellers Under 277.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Josh Hoover Under 11.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Josh Hoover simply isn't built into Indiana's offense as a running threat.
Beat writers previewing this game have been explicit about it: "Hoover isn't the rushing threat Mendoza was" — a notable distinction given that Fernando Mendoza, last year's Heisman winner, still only averaged modest rushing production himself in a run-support role.
Indiana has stacked its backfield with proven rushers instead, including Boston College transfer Turbo Richard (749 yards on 5.2 per carry last season) and Khobie Martin (505 yards on 6.5 per carry), which signals the coaching staff plans to let the run game live through the running backs, not the quarterback.
At TCU, Hoover was a traditional pocket passer who piled up nearly 10,000 career passing yards without ever being featured as a designed runner. His rushing totals in Fort Worth were consistently negligible outside of scramble situations.
Indiana's staff has also talked about trimming Hoover's overall workload compared to what he handled at TCU, keeping him in a more complementary, ball-security-focused role behind a veteran offensive line that returns three starters, including All-American tackle Carter Smith.
With a clear pass-first, low-mobility profile and a run game that doesn't need him to carry the ball, staying under 11.5 rushing yards lines up with both his track record and Indiana's stated offensive approach.
Pick: Josh Hoover Under 11.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
DJ Lagway Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+125)
DJ Lagway has shown he can post multi-touchdown days when he's right, and this is about as big a stage as a new starter gets.
In his lone healthy season opener at Florida, he completed 15-of-18 passes for three touchdowns and a career-high 194.3 passer rating. He flashed that same big-play, downfield arm talent throughout his two years in Gainesville.
Now at Baylor, he's explicitly said he's been working to shed weight specifically to "unleash" his running ability, which only adds another path to points, whether through designed runs near the goal line or extending plays to find the end zone through the air.
The matchup sets up well for a bounce-back performance. Auburn is breaking in a completely new coaching staff under Alex Golesh, and by Auburn's own beat coverage, the cornerback room is "open for business," headlined by transfers from UCLA and USF who have zero track record together and no proven SEC-level starters locked in.
That's exactly the kind of vulnerable, unsettled secondary that a talented, if inconsistent, arm like Lagway's can pick apart.
Add in that this is a nationally televised, neutral-site spotlight game where Lagway is looking to reset his career narrative after a rocky final season at Florida, and that the motivation and matchup both point to him pushing for more than one score through the air.
Pick: DJ Lagway Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+125)
