College Football Predictions, Week 5 Picks: Stuckey’s 4 NCAAF Afternoon Spots — 10/3

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There are plenty of monster matchups that highlight the Week 5 college football afternoon slate, but I'm highlighting four particular spots that stand out to me.

My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.

For full reference of all my spots for Week 5, here's the full piece. So, here's my college football predictions for Week 5.

• 2022-25: 223-178-3 (55.6%)
• 2026: 22-9-1 (71.0%)
• Overall: 245-187-4 (56.7%)

College Football Predictions, Week 5 Picks for Afternoon Slate

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
	12 p.m.	SMU -20.5
	3:30 p.m.	Missouri +6
	4 p.m.	Maryland +15
	4:15 p.m.	South Carolina -2.5

SMU -20.5 vs. Boston College

12 p.m. ET ⋅ The CW

SMU actually showed up as a buy-low candidate this week following a number of unlucky results.

The Mustangs really should've beaten Florida State by three-plus touchdowns in a game where they just continuously shot themselves in the foot.

They also got unlucky in a road loss at Louisville in a game they finished with a 479-442 yards advantage but just couldn't overcome a -3 turnover margin in addition to a pair of failed fourth-down attempts.

Even last week against Missouri State, SMU only won by 10 despite holding a whopping 592-239 yardage edge. The bounces will eventually break their way.

Meanwhile, Boston College has a pair of misleading covers against P4 schools sandwiched in between an ugly six-point home win over Maine.

Including fourth-down stops, Rutgers (with a backup quarterback) turned the ball over six times in BC territory. And last week in a close loss to Virginia Tech, the teams basically played in a monsoon, so you can almost throw out that result completely.

From a matchup perspective, Kevin Jennings should shred this BC defense that won't generate any pressure, which is where Jennings has historically run into problems.

And on the other side of the ball, you need to hit big plays through the air against this SMU secondary. However, BC (129th in Pass EPA) is completely incapable of doing that with quarterback Mason McKenzie sporting a 2:8 big-time throw-to-turnover-worthy play ratio on the year.

The Eagles' offense almost completely relies on quarterback Mason McKenzie's running ability. He leads the team in rushing attempts with 74 (29 more than running back Evan Dickens) and yards with 363.

Fortunately for SMU, it has already faced two very mobile quarterbacks in Ashton Daniels and Lincoln Kienholz, which will serve as valuable prep for McKenzie. They have the linebackers to spy him, which should completely neuter the BC offense.

Once SMU jumps out to a big lead here, I just don't see how BC can keep up in a game that should have plenty of possessions for SMU to spread its wings.

Pick: SMU -20.5 (Play to -21)

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Missouri +6 vs. Florida

3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC

Last week, nobody wanted to bet Florida in one of the best situational spots of the entire season. I loved the Gators last week and had them as a top-10 team prior to that victory (and still do).

Now, one week later, everybody is lining up to back Florida in a brutal situational spot. That's usually my sign to sell high, especially since I show value on the home 'dog here.

Missouri will have to play more zone here and rely on its defensive line to get home on Aaron Philo.

It will be strength-on-strength when Florida has the ball, as I have been very impressed by the Missouri defense despite plenty of offseason turnover. I actually have the Tigers' D as a top-15 unit adjusting for opponent so far this season. They seem to have hit on a lot of their additions.

On the other side of the ball, it will be weakness-on-weakness in terms of the Missouri rushing attack. The Tigers really miss Ahmad Hardy, who will remain out with an injury. Jamal Roberts just doesn't provide as much pop, especially after contact.

However, this might be a week where Missouri can get its ground game going a bit against a Florida defense (seventh percentile in Line Yards) that has struggled in that department (122nd EPA Per Rush allowed).

That will help provide some balance to an offense that needs it.

Mizzou quarterback Austin Simmons has all of the talent in the world, and this is a very explosive wide receiver room that can exploit a vulnerable Florida secondary that ranks outside the top 100 in EPA allowed.

He should find plenty of success in the intermediate range, which is where you want to attack a Brad White defense.

The Florida defense has lived off the Havoc it has created, primarily with its potent edge rushers.

However, Missouri's tackles have performed at a very high level in pass protection, so the Tigers can provide much more resistance than Auburn's atrocious offensive line and Ole Miss' struggling tackles could.

Look, I'm not happy about backing Simmons (who is overdue for some turnovers) and offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey against Buster Faulkner and this powerhouse Florida offense. But I have to do it at this price in this spot.

Pick: Missouri +6 (Play to +4.5)

Maryland +15 at Nebraska

4 p.m. ET ⋅ FS1

This is a simple buy-low/sell-high spot on a number I project under two touchdowns.

It's hard to believe the market hasn't bottomed out on Maryland following back-to-back home losses, with the most recent coming in embarrassing fashion by 51 points vs. UCLA.

Historically, I like to buy low on teams following bad home losses when they hit the road. That can sometimes be the best form of medicine.

Additionally, we get to sell high on Nebraska following a 4-0 start to the season.

Yes, the Cornhuskers (who I remain high on) have looked impressive, but it has come against a ridiculously favorable schedule (125th compared to Maryland's 49th) that really only featured one somewhat decent opponent in Michigan State, which was extremely beat up.

The Huskers also host Indiana next week and then head out on the road to take on Oregon, so they could get caught looking past a Maryland team they just saw get run off its own field.

Plus, with the most difficult portion of its schedule coming up, I assume Matt Rhule has to have a major focus on keeping this group healthy, especially with a couple of his most important skill-position players already dealing with injuries.

As a result, I doubt he'll really look to push it to the limit with a late lead, which could open up the backdoor if needed.

It's not the best matchup for the Terps, who simply can't run the ball, which is ideally how you want to attack this Nebraska defense.

However, they're apparently making some changes on offense this week, which could catch the Huskers (who maybe spent some of this week preparing for Indiana/Oregon) off guard.

I'm still a believer in quarterback Malik Washington, who can do enough to keep the Terps within this inflated number.

Maybe the players have quit on Mike Locksley, but I'll pay to find out.

Pick: Maryland +15 (Play to 14.5)

South Carolina -2.5 vs. Kentucky

4:15 p.m. ET ⋅ SEC Network

The sky is falling in Columbia! It's time to fire Shane Beamer and bet against South Carolina moving forward.

That seems to be the common sentiment at the moment, so the Gamecocks certainly piqued my interest as a potential buy-low candidate this week.

The look-ahead line sat at -7 prior to last week's results. That was probably a bit too high, but we then saw it drop all the way down below three because South Carolina got blown out at Alabama (mind you, the Tide also blew out Kentucky in Lexington) and Kentucky barely covered vs. a South Alabama squad playing with its backup quarterback?

That's too much of an overcorrection, in my opinion.

And while it hasn't been pretty over the past two weeks, South Carolina did lose to a pair of top-20 teams in Mississippi State and Alabama, who have two of the highest-performing quarterbacks in the country at the moment.

The Kentucky passing attack is nowhere close to as potent as either of those high-flying offenses, so the South Carolina defense should look much more competent this week even without the newly suspended Dylan Stewart, who hasn't really contributed anything this season anyway.

Maybe South Carolina is on quit watch.

I've heard that hypothesis recently (another usually strong buy signal), but I expect the Gamecocks to show up at home this week against a Kentucky team that may be feeling itself a bit too much at the moment, with a huge matchup vs. LSU next week they may get caught peaking ahead to.

Plus, the South Carolina ground game (which ranks in the top 15 in both EPA and Success Rate) should cook against a Wildcat defense that has really struggled to contain opposing ground games (84th in Success Rate).

Matt Fuller and LaNorris Sellers are both averaging 6.8 yards per carry running behind an offensive line that's getting great push up front.

Sellers has been underwhelming as a passer so far this season, but this could very well mark his low point in a brand-new offense.

The Cocks can lean on the run to set up some of the pass in a matchup where its defense won't get overwhelmed like the previous two games. I'm buying low.

Pick: South Carolina -2.5 (Play to -3)