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The No. 16 Mississippi State Bulldogs host the No. 7 Alabama Crimson Tide in Starkville, Mississippi, on Saturday, Oct. 3 at 12 p.m. ET on ABC.
Both teams have been offensive juggernauts this season, ranking in the top 15 in scoring offense and top 25 in total offense.
That's particularly true for Mississippi State, which is led by star quarterback Kamario Taylor. Taylor has already thrown for 1,192 yards and 14 touchdowns while adding 185 yards and a score on the ground.
The Bulldogs enter this game at 4-0 with impressive wins over Minnesota, South Carolina and Missouri.
Alabama, meanwhile, also enters this game at 4-0 with dominant victories over Kentucky, Florida State and South Carolina. In fact, the Tide's closest game this season was their 14-point win over the Seminoles in which they scored 50 points.
Alabama enters this game as a -6 favorite, while the over/under sits at 60.5 total points. So, where does the value lie in this top-20 SEC showdown?
We polled nine of our college football experts to get their takes on the spread and total, so let's dive into our Mississippi State vs. Alabama and college football predictions for Saturday, Oct. 3.
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Mississippi State vs. Alabama Spread Pick
Our Staff's Pick: Mississippi State +6
By RoadToCFB
This weekend, our staff is largely split on the spread between Alabama and Mississippi State. Of our nine voters, five side with Mississippi State +6, three lean Alabama -6 and one tabs this as a coin-flip.
Following Week 4’s conclusion, Alabama reopened as a -4 favorite on the road and was bet up throughout the early week. Late-week action nudged back a half-point in favor of Mississippi State.
Due to the campuses being separated by only 85 miles, the Tide will bus in the day of the game rather than stay overnight.
Explosive Bulldogs quarterback Kamario Taylor has been the story of the early season thanks to impressive elusiveness, a live arm and an uncanny ability to either hit or find the home run on any given play.
But the downfield excitement doesn’t end with Taylor.
Alabama QB Keelon Russell has exploded onto the scene the last two games, throwing seven touchdowns and no interceptions against Florida State and South Carolina while also completing 77% of his passes.
Russell and Taylor have combined for 41 attempts 20-plus yards downfield, completing 24 of them for 11 touchdowns.
What makes this game so intriguing is that both defenses struggle to contain explosive plays, particularly in the Alabama secondary. The Tide have done a good job limiting down-to-down success (20th in Success Rate), but Alabama’s 15 passes allowed of 20-plus yards ranks 114th nationally.
Mississippi State has allowed 14 in its own right, but the Bulldogs have allowed more chunk yardage on a play-to-play basis.
Ultimately, our staff leans toward the home ‘dog in what should be an electric environment in Starkville.
Mississippi State vs. Alabama Over/Under Pick
Over 60.5 | 7 Picks |
Pass | 2 Picks |
Under 60.5 | 0 Picks |
Our Staff's Pick: Over 60.5
By RoadToCFB
Downfield shots, leaky secondaries, and a breakneck pace from Mississippi State make this a one-sided affair for our staff. Seven of our nine voters lean over 60.5 points in what appears to be shaping up to be a high-scoring conference clash.
Starting State linebacker Zakari Tillman will miss Week 5 after playing his first snaps last week (but was held to 15).
On the other side, Alabama’s injury report is filled with rotators and second-string linebackers and defensive backs. Two starting linemen, left guard William Sanders and right tackle Jayvin James, are questionable after both exiting Week 4.
The Crimson Tide defense has been significantly worse than expected.
At times, it has looked rock-solid (see: the second halves of the Kentucky and Florida State games), but at others, it’s among the most vulnerable in the SEC (also see: the first halves of those games).
It’s a unit prone to a flash fry as opponents take downfield shots early and often, getting on the board in the first quarter.
Head coach Kalen DeBoer and staff adjust well throughout the game, but it’s clear there are serious holes here. Last year’s team suffered from occasional lapses in effort, as well.
As a home ‘dog, Jeff Lebby should continue to run the wide-choice offense at lightning speed. State runs the sixth-fastest pace in college football, running a new play every 23 seconds.
One concerning trend to keep an eye on: Taylor is taking more sacks every week. Against South Carolina, only one of the Gamecocks' nine pressures turned into a sack; last week against Missouri, seven pressures turned into four sacks.
Alabama has gotten after the passer this year, logging a sack on nearly 9% of opposing dropbacks, 23rd-most in the country.
Given Alabama’s slow defensive starts, our staff expects Mississippi State to put points on the board early. It’s a game where the home ‘dog will have to outpace and outscore the Tide.
Mississippi State vs. Alabama Parlay
Ryan Coleman-Williams + Anthony Evans III Anytime Touchdown Parlay (+324 · Play to +300)
By Alex Hinton
As a true freshman, Ryan Williams burst onto the scene and looked set to emerge as the next great Alabama wide receiver. However, his sophomore season turned into a bit of a disappointment when he struggled with drops.
Now going by Ryan Coleman-Williams, he's already off to a fast start.
Through his first four games, Coleman-Williams has recorded 17 receptions for 333 yards and three touchdowns. The three touchdowns have come in each of his last two games, as the Crimson Tide have moved through their SEC schedule.
They've scored 45 points in each of their first four games, the first FBS team to do so since 2019. However, this week, it may be a necessity.
Mississippi State is averaging 43 points per game and also hasn't been doing it against cupcakes, facing Minnesota, South Carolina and Missouri in the last three weeks.
Quarterback Kamario Taylor has taken the college football world by storm and vaulted himself into the Heisman race. Anthony Evans III has been his top target this season.
The senior already has 28 receptions for 408 yards. Taylor loves to push the ball downfield, averaging 9.9 yards per attempt.
Evans has had a 20-yard reception in each of his first four games. Like Coleman-Williams, Evans has found the end zone three times already with one touchdown in three of his first four games.
The quarterback matchup is the headliner, as Russell and Taylor square off with both offenses looking to keep pace.
If both of them throw two or three touchdown passes this week, there is a good chance that their WR1 will grab at least one of them.
Mississippi State vs. Alabama Odds
| Mississippi State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -115 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | +180 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -105 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | -220 |
