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The Navy Midshipmen take on the Air Force Falcons in U.S. Air Force Academy, CO. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on CBS.
Air Force is favored by -3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -170. The total is set at 45.5 points.
Here’s my Navy vs. Air Force prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 3, 2026.
Navy vs Air Force Prediction
- Navy vs. Air Force Pick: Air Force -3.5
My Air Force vs. Navy best bet is on the Falcons to win. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page. Be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Navy vs Air Force Odds
| Navy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 45.5 -115o / -105u | +140 |
| Air Force Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 45.5 -115o / -105u | -170 |
- Navy vs Air Force point spread: Air Force -3.5 (-105), Navy +3.5 (-115)
- Navy vs Air Force over/under: 45.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Navy vs Air Force moneyline: Navy +140, Air Force -170
Navy vs Air Force College Football Preview
Navy Midshipmen Betting Preview: Return to Year One
Navy comes into this one licking its wounds a bit after dropping conference games against FAU and UAB, both as road favorites.
The season expectations have quickly shifted from a potential conference championship to now just trying to fight and claw to make a bowl game. The Mids are clearly missing the offensive potency that we saw over the last couple of seasons.
The explosiveness on offense is way down, the quarterback play isn't as efficient and the defense isn't nearly as tough as it was last season.
Navy is in rough shape heading into this first installment of the Commander-in-Chief series, which all three service academies fight so hard to win.
The offense has been a struggle for Navy this season, but it was very ugly last week on the road at UAB. Jackson Gutierrez started at quarterback for the injured Braxton Woodson and looked like a plebe who hasn’t played much.
Gutierrez completed just four passes against the Blazers, often missing open receivers, which would have resulted in big plays.
Navy ran the ball 58 times while registering just two explosive rushing plays, and the offense folded late in the fourth quarter with turnovers and failed situational execution.
This is starting to look more like head coach Brian Newberry’s first season on the sidelines for the Middies, as opposed to the back-to-back double-digit win campaigns we saw in 2024 and 2025.
The defense has struggled to stop the pass, as Navy grades out as the worst coverage unit in the AAC and is in the bottom 20 in all of FBS in defensive pass play success rate and explosiveness surrendered.
The Mids have registered three or more sacks in every game this season, and the pass rush has helped in preventing the pass defense numbers from being worse.
Air Force isn't equipped to take advantage of the poor pass defense, and Navy has been stout all season against the run. That means there's a chance this defense shows out okay against the Flyboys on Saturday.
Air Force Falcons Betting Preview: Four Ways Forward
Air Force rebounded nicely from an early-season loss against North Dakota State with a thrilling overtime win on the road against Nevada last week.
The Flyboys have also been searching for consistency on the offensive side of the ball, as this bunch has experienced a decline in explosive plays while searching for reliable, consistent ball carriers that will show up in big moments.
Rocco Conti and Kemper Hodges look the part this season for the Falcons, who are averaging 334 rushing yards per game on 5.2 yards per carry.
Quarterback Liam Szarka has thrown the ball less this season, as receivers haven't emerged. However, Szarka leads Air Force in rushing with 310 yards on the ground and five rushing touchdowns.
The option-based scheme now has four to five reliable ball carriers, and this group should be able to consistently stay ahead of the chains and have manageable third-down attempts against this Navy defense.
While the passing game hasn't been overly effective this season, I wouldn't be surprised if the Flyboys pull one over on a Navy secondary that struggles badly to defend the pass.
The Air Force defense hasn't put together a complete game against an FBS opponent yet this season and has allowed 393 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play the last two weeks.
Both Nevada and North Dakota State went through stretches with an abundance of success offensively, as, at times, the Flyboys' defense has looked completely lost.
Air Force gives up explosive plays both on the ground and through the air, but it'll be squaring off against the least explosive offense it's faced all season. Also, there's familiarity with the scheme.
I wouldn’t be stunned to see a better defensive performance from Air Force this week.
Navy vs Air Force Pick, Betting Analysis
This line opened with Air Force listed as two-point favorites, but the Falcons have been bet up to where the line currently sits at Air Force -3.5.
The total has been bet down from 49.5 on the soft open to 45.5.
I'm willing to lay the number with Air Force.
The Falcons have had much more consistency out of their offensive ground attack against FBS competition this season while playing two tougher defenses. I love what I saw last week out of Hodges and Conti, and Air Force has the advantage in early downs against the weaker Navy defense.
I look for the ground attack to consistently find three-to-four yards early, giving Air Force the entire playbook on second down.
While the drives will be methodical in nature, Air Force has consistently found the red zone and scored when inside its opponent’s 20-yard line.
I look for the Flyboys to score touchdowns in this game.
Navy has been sporadic offensively and is clearly missing the star-power players from last season.
The quarterback position could be rotated this week as offensive coordinator Drew Cronic made mention of playing both Gutierrez and Woodson at quarterback in this game and possibly having them both on the field at the same time.
Woodson is coming off an ankle injury, and he didn't contribute last week against UAB.
I'm not sure Navy has confidence in the quarterback position, and the offensive line has allowed a significant amount of havoc against them this year.
Air Force isn't a defense that registers a lot of havoc, but the Falcons have a pair of talented linebackers in Blake Fletcher and Dallas Daley who will make plays behind the line of scrimmage. These two will be in on run stops.
I don't expect Navy — which is playing its third straight road game — to play very well. Air Force is going to score points against this defense, and I don't think Navy is going to be able to keep up.
With Navy being too reliant on its quarterback to carry the ball, I'll look for Air Force to key in on that and force other players to make plays.
Air Force will pull away in the second half and cover this short number.
Pick: Air Force -3.5
Navy vs Air Force Betting Trends
