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The Michigan State Spartans take on the Wisconsin Badgers in Madison, WI. Kickoff is set for 12:30 p.m. ET on BTN.
Wisconsin is favored by -9.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -375. The total is set at 43.5 points.
Here’s my Michigan State vs. Wisconsin prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 3, 2026.
Michigan State vs Wisconsin Prediction
- Michigan State vs. Wisconsin Pick: Wisconsin -9.5
My Wisconsin vs. Michigan State best bet is on the Badgers to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Michigan State vs Wisconsin Odds
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -104 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +290 |
| Wisconsin Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -118 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -375 |
- Michigan State vs Wisconsin point spread: Wisconsin -9.5 (-118), Michigan State +9.5 (-104)
- Michigan State vs Wisconsin over/under: 43.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Michigan State vs Wisconsin moneyline: Michigan State +290, Wisconsin -375
Michigan State vs Wisconsin College Football Preview
Michigan State Spartans Betting Preview: Losing at the Line
Fresh off a loss to Nebraska, the wheels have started to fall off the rails for Michigan State, and there are no signs of getting back on track anytime soon.
Even with Anthony Colandrea completing just 55% of his passes, the Cornhuskers' quarterback had no issue moving the ball down the field with his legs, gashing the Spartans' front seven for 66 yards while averaging 6.6 yards per carry.
Holding opponents in front of the sticks has been a massive issue for Michigan State’s defense this season, as it enters Week 5 ranked near the bottom of the board in defensive rush success rate, PPA and explosiveness.
Speaking of converting, Michigan State has been abysmal on offense, fielding a group that ranks 99th in passing down success rate, 130th in explosiveness, 105th in points per opportunity and 128th in havoc allowed.
To make matters worse for the Spartans, Cam Edwards suffered a season-ending injury, leaving a massive void in the backfield.
Even before Edwards went down, the Spartans were unable to get the ground game going, putting more pressure on Alessio Milivojevic’s shoulders to keep them afloat.
With both facets of the offense struggling to play at a competitive level, the Spartans will continue to have issues.
Wisconsin Badgers Betting Preview: Strength Down the Middle
Just when it looked like Wisconsin was going to fall 2-2, the Badgers were able to mount a comeback and beat Penn State 24-20, adding an impressive win to their resume.
The victory over the Nittany Lions is even more stunning when factoring in Colton Joseph’s performance under center, as he threw three interceptions while completing 47.4% of his passes.
Joseph’s sporadic play has handicapped Wisconsin’s ceiling, leading the offense to below-league-average marks in pass play explosiveness and PPA. It's worth noting that the Badgers' quarterback has fared far better in the middle of the field, sneaking into the top 40 in pass play success rate.
Fortunately for Wisconsin, Abu Sama III and Darrion Dupree are able to keep the offense competitive by generating explosive plays at a high rate. The Badgers rank in the top 10 in rush explosiveness.
By pulling defensive attention to the middle, the Badgers' pass catchers have more room to work with on the outside, creating wider passing lanes to help chip away at Joseph's total number of turnover-worthy plays.
On the other side of the ball, the Badgers have been dominant on defense, heading into Saturday ranked 22nd in defensive success rate and 13th in explosiveness.
Michigan State vs Wisconsin Pick, Betting Analysis
With Michigan State’s front seven struggling to stop the run, the Badgers will be able to consistently stay ahead of the sticks and get into the red zone at a high rate.
When near the goal line, expect the Badgers to turn scoring opportunities into points by taking advantage of a defense that ranks outside the top 100 in defensive rush finishing drives.
Matching the Badgers' output will be a tall task for a Spartans offense that's expected to take a massive step back while Edwards is out with an injury, especially when they're incapable of taking care of the ball.
The Spartans' poor mark in havoc allowed will also spot Wisconsin generous field position.
With clear advantages on both sides of the ball, expect the Badgers to set a scoring pace too fast for the Spartans to keep up with and cover the spread.
Pick: Wisconsin -9.5
Michigan State vs Wisconsin Betting Trends
