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The Michigan Wolverines take on the Minnesota Golden Gophers in Minneapolis, MN. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on FOX.
Michigan is favored by -5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -220. The total is set at 43.5 points.
Here’s my Michigan vs. Minnesota prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 3, 2026.
Michigan vs Minnesota Prediction
- Michigan vs. Minnesota Pick: Minnesota +5.5
My Minnesota vs. Michigan best bet is on the Gophers to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Michigan vs Minnesota Odds
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 43.5 -108o / -112u | -210 |
| Minnesota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 43.5 -108o / -112u | +172 |
- Michigan vs Minnesota point spread: Michigan -5.5 (-112), Minnesota +5.5 (-108)
- Michigan vs Minnesota over/under: 43.5 (-108o / -112u)
- Michigan vs Minnesota moneyline: Michigan -220, Minnesota +175
Michigan vs Minnesota College Football Preview
Michigan Wolverines Betting Preview: Underwhelming Season Thus Far
I am so unimpressed with Michigan.
Not to beat a dead horse, but this team should be 2-2 after sneaking past Western Michigan in the first game, and then falling to Iowa in a buzzer-beater last week. In between those two games, the Wolverines also beat Oklahoma by the mere score of 17-10.
The run game is probably the most unspectacular aspect of Michigan’s game. Leading rusher Jordan Marshall is fine, but his 4.3 yards per carry is hardly moving mountains, and quarterback Bryce Underwood has only two fewer rushing yards than him.
Speaking of Underwood, I’ve also expected better from a number-one overall recruit from his class – especially given the payday that he received to play in Ann Arbor.
He has formed a great chemistry with JJ Buchanan, who leads the team in receiving on just under 20 yards per catch, along with Andrew Marsh, who leads in receptions.
But that’s where the problem lies. Buchanan and Marsh account for 71% of Michigan’s receptions combined, and because of that, opponents know where Underwood is looking.
It’s either Buchanan, Marsh, or he’ll take it for himself.
On the defensive side of the ball is where the Wolverines thrive at a high level. Against the pass, they’re ranked 13th in Success Rate allowed in pass plays, and ninth in Success Rate allowed in pass downs.
Additionally, they do a high-end job at stuffing the run, ranking 13th in the FBS in opponent rushing yards allowed per game.
Minnesota Golden Gophers Betting Preview: Time to Buck the Trends
PJ Fleck is a madman. I can’t get the visual of him wiping a bloody nose off one of his players and draping it on his face out of my head.
A true sicko.
The Gophers are looking to secure their first home win over Michigan since 1977, and last week’s win against Washington proved that they can do it.
Michigan is vulnerable after losing to Iowa at the last second, and I think this is one of the rare times that Minnesota has the upper hand here.
Minnesota likes to wear down its opponents, as showcased in Seattle last week. Its one loss was suffered against Mississippi State, one of the most dynamic teams in college football.
Quarterback Drake Lindsey has been pretty efficient in his second season as the starter, completing passes at a 66% rate with seven touchdowns and two picks.
And so far, he’s revived the chemistry he formed with Javon Tracy last season, while seamlessly connecting with Cincinnati transfer Noah Jennings.
In a complete 180, Minnesota doesn’t like to run the ball a lot, ranking 134th in rushing attempts per game. A total shock, considering that Fleck likes to establish the run.
TJ Thomas has been a total stud for the Gophers, rushing for 7.1 yards per carry and helping them achieve a 43rd Rush Play Success Rate.
Defensively, this team does a fine job at holding down the fort. Fleck promoted Danny Collins as the defensive coordinator, and currently, the Gophers rank sixth overall in Havoc and 50th overall in points allowed.
Michigan vs Minnesota Pick, Betting Analysis
Did it seem like I was too harsh on Michigan? Because I thought I took it lightly on the maize and blue.
I think this is a fascinating matchup because Michigan’s defense has been stellar, but I wonder how the Wolverines fare on the offensive side.
You also have to imagine that Huntington Bank Stadium is going to be rocking.
Obviously, Minnesota not beating Michigan at home since the 70s is an alarming stat. After all, the Gophers have either been just good or dumpster fire bad since the early 1940s.
Our projections have Michigan winning this game by 10 points, and it’s for very good reason. However, while Michigan has the better team on paper, I feel like Minnesota is the one riding the momentum.
That’s why I’m taking the points with the Gophers.
Chirp me on X if you must, because if this doesn’t hit, I at least want to feel something.
Pick: Minnesota +5.5
