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The Alabama Crimson Tide take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Starkville, Mississippi, on Saturday, Oct. 3. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ABC.
Alabama is favored by -5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -130. Mississippi State, meanwhile, enters as a +5.5 underdog and is +188 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 60.5 total points.
Here’s my Alabama vs. Mississippi State prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 3.
Alabama vs Mississippi State Prediction
- Alabama vs. Mississippi State Pick: Mississippi State +6 or Better
My Mississippi State vs. Alabama best bet is on the Bulldogs to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page. Be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Alabama vs Mississippi State Odds
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -120 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | -230 |
| Mississippi State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -102 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | +188 |
- Alabama vs Mississippi State Spread: Alabama -5.5 (-120), Mississippi State +5.5 (-102)
- Alabama vs Mississippi State Over/Under: 60.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Alabama vs Mississippi State Moneyline: Alabama -230, Mississippi State +188
Alabama vs Mississippi State College Football Preview
Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Preview: Tide Dominating Both Sides
The Alabama offense blazed through the September schedule, scoring at least 45 points in each contest.
Despite mid-FBS numbers in run and pass blocking on the offensive line, the Crimson Tide offense ranks in the top 25 in Rushing Success Rate and methodical drives.
The biggest driver of points under quarterback Keelon Russell is the ability to generate touchdowns instead of field goals. In 28 offensive possessions that crossed the opponent's 40-yard line, Alabama is averaging 5.4 points per trip.
On the other side of the ball, defensive coordinator Kane Wommack has also fielded a highly efficient stop unit. Alabama ranks top-25 in Success Rate allowed, manhandling the trench through four games with a top-10 rank in Line Yards.
Havoc has returned to Tuscaloosa, as the Crimson Tide defenders sit 33rd nationally in Havoc and come in top-30 in limiting opponent pass EPA.
The negatives on defense come in tackling and Finishing Drives, both outside the top 90 among FBS teams.
Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Preview: Taylor Leads Electric Offense
Quarterback Kamario Taylor is on a meteoric rise through college football's first quarter of the season. The sophomore has tripled his passing touchdown output, sitting at 14 with only two interceptions.
Taylor has also been fantastic on the ground, adding more than 200 rushing yards with nearly half coming on designed run calls.
The remainder of the offense has flourished with the success of the Heisman hopeful quarterback, as the potent rushing attack is led by Fluff Bothwell, who averages four yards after first contact.
In the passing game, slot receiver Anthony Evans III has 20 more targets than any other player this season, averaging more than three yards per route run.
The offense remains electric under head coach Jeff Lebby, a much-needed factor for a defense that continues its slow rise in each statistical category.
Coordinator Zach Arnett returned the 3-3-5 to Starkville and has been an improvement over previous coordinators since his time as head coach. Arnett has improved coverage, tackling and opponent rush EPA numbers since his return.
Although there has been improvement, the pass rush has been virtually nonexistent, with an opponent Quality Drive rank of 84th.
Opponents are driving the field with pass explosives because quarterbacks have so much time in the pocket, a must-watch against Alabama.
Alabama vs Mississippi State Pick, Betting Analysis
This game will have no shortage of fireworks between two dual-threat quarterbacks who can make a case for a Heisman vote.
Russell shouldn't experience pressure in the pocket from the Mississippi State defense, as the quarterback's season average of 3.1 seconds to throw will be comfortable in Starkville.
Alabama has been elite in generating both methodical drives and explosive drives, and converting scoring opportunities into touchdowns.
The Bulldogs' struggle to stop inside zone this season, with a 39% success rate, should keep the Crimson Tide moving on offense.
The same advantages exist for Mississippi State on the offensive side of the ball. Alabama has been lukewarm in defending outside zone, the Bulldogs' primary run concept.
Taylor should also have no problem reading the Cover 3 preference from the Alabama secondary. Mississippi State has a 54% Success Rate against Cover 3, a look that should allow Taylor to target Evans in shorter passing routes.
The Bulldogs will have all the advantages once targets hit the ground running, as Alabama ranks 94th in tackle grading.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings place Alabama as a 5-point favorite, but the offensive advantages are gratuitous for both teams.
Mississippi State's ability to go uptempo, with top-25 ranks in Quality Drives and Finishing Drives, will take advantage of an Alabama defense that sits outside the top 100 in Defensive Finishing Drives.
Mississippi State's wide advantage in SP+ Special Teams could give the Bulldogs a shot to pull off the upset.
Pick: Mississippi State +6 or Better
Alabama vs Mississippi State Betting Trends
