College Football Sharp Report: Pros Betting Washington-Oregon, 4 Other Week 7 Games

Oct 13, 2018 11:37 AM EDT
  • Before placing your Week 7 college football bets, you might want to know which bets sharps are making.
  • Sharps are bettors with long track records of consistent success -- they went 4-1 on their picks last week.
  • Their favorite Week 7 plays include bets on Washington-Oregon and UCF-Memphis.

If you’ve stopped by and read our college football sharp report before, you know the spiel by now. In case you haven’t, here’s the deal:

“Sharps” are bettors with long track records of consistent success. And when I say long, I’m talking several years — decades, even. When a sharp places a bet, books take notice and often adjust their lines as a result.

By tracking these line moves, we can determine the bets sharps are making, assuming we have a few more bits of information — which we do.

The tools at The Action Network and Sports Insights allow us to track each time a wager comes in that changes the market price of a given bet (this is called a steam move).

We also track the number of tickets being placed on each side of a game, as well as the percentage of actual dollars. Comparing those figures to the line movement is one of the easiest and most effective ways to locate sharp action.

With that out of the way, let’s take a look at the Week 7 games drawing the most action from wiseguys, who went 4-1 on last week’s plays.


>> All odds as of 1:30 p.m. ET on Friday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time college football odds and track your bets.


All games Sat. October 13. Line moves from Pinnacle.

Northwestern @ Nebraska

12 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Nebraska (moved from +6 to +3)

Depending on the book you choose to judge opening lines — Pinnacle tends to open later than others — this line might’ve fallen a hell of a lot more than three points. At BetOnline, for example, Northwestern opened as a 10-point favorite and is now -3.

And while it might be the first time Northwestern has been favored over Nebraska since the 1930s, 72% of bets are behind the Wildcats, so it’s not public money that’s bringing this line down.

Sharps have been hammering Nebraska all week, as indicated by the 42% of dollars on the Huskers — a sign of bigger, most likely sharper, wagers — as well as the four steam moves behind them.

Troy @ Liberty

2 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Liberty (moved from +11 to +10)

Liberty is no stranger to the college football Sharp Report. Seemingly each week, sharp bettors have found some value on the Flames.

This week has proven no different, as Liberty has fallen to the key number of +10 behind only 24% of bets. Those bets have accounted for 35% of money wagered on the game, however, and the Flames have been on the receiving end of seven steam moves, five of which have come at the current number of +10.

Washington @ Oregon

3:30 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Washington (moved from -3 to -3.5)

In what is sure to be one of the most heavily bet games on Saturday, No. 7 Washington is seeing only 39% of bets against the 17th-ranked Ducks.

Still, oddsmakers have been forced to move this line up from the key number of -3 as a result of sharp action on the Huskies.

Washington has triggered eight steam moves — more than any other team this weekend — though if you’re looking to follow the sharps, it’s worth noting that every move came at -3.

Central Florida @ Memphis

3:30 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Memphis (moved from +5 to +4.5)

UCF has been one the most popular bets all week. The Knights have accounted for 81% of the bets in this matchup, but they’ve still fallen a half-point from their opening number thanks to sharp action on Memphis.

Six steam moves have hit the Tigers, all of which have come at the current number of +4.5, so it’s clear that wiseguys are among the 19% on Memphis.

Ole Miss @ Arkansas

7:30 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Under (moved from 70.5 to 67.5)

While 60% of bettors have taken the over in this SEC matchup, the total has fallen by a field goal.

The 40% of bettors on the under have accounted for 49% of dollars wagered, and the under has triggered five steam moves, indicating that sharps aren’t expecting this game to be a shootout.

One potential reason for the under action is the weather. Rain is expected to be coming down steadily, and winds should be approaching 10 mph all game.

Credit:

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Washington Huskies running back Myles Gaskin (9) scores on a 1 yard touchdown run in the second quarter against the UCLA Bruins at Rose Bowl.

Follow Danny Donahue on Twitter
@dannyjdonahue

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
MSU
MICH
+6.5
47.5
+7.5
41
LSU
MSST
-6.5
44.5
-6.5
45.5
TEM
CIN
-3.5
48.5
-3.5
47.5
ECU
UCF
+24
64.5
+21.5
65
USF
CONN
-31
70
-32.5
70
WASH
COLO
-17
51
-17.5
50
TCU
OKLA
+7.5
61
+7.5
62
WSU
ORE
-2
66
-3
69
UK
VAN
-11.5
48
-12.5
46.5
TENN
BAMA
+28.5
58
+29
57.5
CLEM
NCST
-17
53.5
-17.5
57.5
IOWA
MD
-13.5
51.5
-9
44
PUR
OSU
+12
64.5
+12
69
WISC
ILL
-25.5
54.5
-24
57
IND
PSU
+13
62
+14.5
59.5