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Wilson: Projecting Week 9 College Football Over/Unders

Oct 22, 2018 2:37 PM EDT
Credit:

Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Sparty

  • Collin Wilson projects Week 9 college football over/unders to find betting value against sportsbooks' opening numbers.
  • Use these as a guide when placing wagers early in the week or on gameday.

College football totals are released early in the week and can see heavy movement because of weather, injury or scheme. This column serves as your first look at the projected totals for Week 9’s college football matchups.

These numbers are based on a mathematical projection of yards per play, plays per game, adjusted pace and efficiency. The Action Network Power Ratings for point-spread purposes can be found here.

When the real totals are released, I’ll compare my totals to what oddsmakers have posted to find betting value before the odds move.

Discrepancies in weather, injuries and standard passing down/run rate are all factors with investment on a total.

Be sure to follow me in The Action Network app to get alerts whenever I make a pick off these numbers.


College Football Week 9 Over/Under Projections

Notes on Pace, Injury, and Weather

Appalachian State at Georgia Southern

Projected Total: 52.5

When you think of Appalachian State, you might think of quick strikes. The Mountaineers rank 14th in IsoPPP, which measures a team’s explosiveness.

But there’s a case to be made for the under, if the number is right. There is a 50% chance of precipitation with greater than 10-mph winds.

More importantly, Georgia Southern loves to control the clock with long, sustained drives. The Eagles are one of the least penalized teams in the nation and will try to win this game by keeping the ball away from Appalachian State quarterback Zac Thomas.

Purdue at Michigan State

Projected Total: 60

With questions about quarterback Brian Lewerke’s status, Purdue comes into this game after full offensive beatdown of Ohio State. Short-term memory may lead fans to want the over, but Michigan State is 13th in front seven Havoc rate and should limit the Boilermakers. Another key to this total is adjusted pace, with Purdue ranking 110th and Michigan State ranking 118th.

 

Middle Tennessee at Old Dominion

Projected Total: 48.5

The Carolinas and Virginias will see the brunt of the weather this weekend. A 60% chance of rain and 20-mph winds are forecasted for Norfolk.

Middle Tennessee and Old Dominion are generally pass-first teams, ranking outside the top 100 in standard downs run rate. This weather could force a scheme change and plenty of turnovers.

UMass at UConn

Projected Total: 50

The mathematics behind yards per play differential, plays per game, and adjusted pace came to a total of 50. These teams rank 123rd and 130th in S&P+ defense, giving up some record-breaking total yards in each loss.

Even more interesting is both teams ranking in the bottom 10 for finishing drives, a statistical measure of converted points in opponents’ territory. UConn is not a very successful offensive team, but any total close to this projection should sail over.

The Huskies’ best defensive games have consisted of limiting Rhode Island and Cincinnati to 49 points each.

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