College Football Win Totals: How to Bet LSU Futures After Brian Kelly’s Hire & Transfer Portal Activity
Stacy Revere/Getty Images. Pictured: A lightning strike outside of Tiger Stadium.
There is an expectation that Louisiana State may be a bit inflated coming into the 2022 season.
Plenty of national writers have placed LSU on the fringe of the “way-too-early” top 25 rankings, but there are dozens of unanswered questions that may not be resolved before the Sept. 4 kickoff against Florida State in New Orleans.
The Action Network has lowered the power rating through offseason research with all the pending changes. LSU takes one of the lowest TARP ratings heading into 2022 even with all of the rumblings in the transfer portal.
Head coach Brian Kelly has pulled eight of the top 100 transfers, but a closer examination shows the addition of three-star players while losing five-star cornerback Eli Ricks to Alabama and four-star quarterback Max Johnson to Texas A&M.
Kelly is also responsible for two new coordinators who are expected to implement their schemes through the spring.
Offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock will continue to run 11 personnel but change LSU’s identity from a no-tight end scheme to a two-tight personnel. The Tigers ran just 41 plays in 12 personnel in 2021, making this a heavy adjustment for quarterback Myles Brennan.
Defensive coordinator Matt House has yet to start his position, currently coaching the linebackers for the Kansas City Chiefs’ Super Bowl run. House previously served as coordinator at Kentucky from 2016-18, running a strict scheme of 3-3-5.
Upperclassmen on the LSU defense will go through another scheme change with their fourth coordinator in three years after running a 4-3 scheme in 2021.
The early win total for LSU before spring practices is projected at five wins. This will be a saturated market filled with plenty of LSU buzz, but new coaches and schemes are rarely successful early in new coaching regimes.
Making a bowl in 2022 would be an outstanding coaching job from Kelly, but if the market flashes win totals at 6.5 or higher, there will be an opportunity to play the under.
Collin Wilson is The Action Network’s college football senior writer and co-host of the Big Bets on Campus podcast. He also serves in various roles behind the scenes, including data visualization of probabilities, creating power ratings and analyzing head-to-head matchups. Follow Collin on Twitter here.
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