Wilson: Projected CFB Odds for Week 12 and an Early Bet for Navy vs. Notre Dame

Wilson: Projected CFB Odds for Week 12 and an Early Bet for Navy vs. Notre Dame article feature image
Credit:

Tommy Gilligan, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Malcolm Perry

It may have taken until November, but Week 12 was finally my chance to head to Circa Sports in downtown Las Vegas to get some college football openers. The book was filled with NFL fans on Sunday afternoon, but I was equipped with the Action Network’s power ratings and a fresh set of advanced statistics to bet college games.

In early point spread activity, Kansas State moved from a -12 opener to -15. Bettors can not get enough of the Wildcats regardless of a 1% postgame win expectancy against Texas. West Virginia travels to Manhattan, but the formula for beating Kansas State requires a successful ground attack. With a rank of 101st in rushing success rate, the Mountaineers may struggle in Week 12.

Northwestern vs. UMass has generated plenty of conversation with the release of Wildcats -40, despite them ranking dead last nationally in yards per play.

That number has seen plenty of early action on Northwestern, but respected money has driven the line to UMass +38 in some spots. Not only is this a game between teams with one win on the season, the Wildcats and Minutemen have a combined 3-16 mark against the spread. Northwestern has scored a grand total of 36 offensive points since the beginning of October.

As I always do on Sunday, I used our power ratings to bet a few openers that I’ll detail below.

Let’s take a look at one of my favorite early bets of the week. Stay tuned for much more betting coverage in the run-up to Saturday, and follow me in The Action Network app for all my early bets and bets closer to kickoff.

College Football Early Bet and Projected Spreads

Note: A negative number indicates the home team is favored by that many points; inverse for a positive number.

Navy at Notre Dame (-9)

2:30 p.m. ET NBC

The handicap when playing for or against a triple-option team starts in the trench, as always. Navy has a case for comeback team of the year, having a 6-2 against the spread mark and ranking just inside the College Football Playoff top 25.

Most of the success comes via the trenches, where Navy is 19th in Line Yards, 16th in Power Success and 25th in Stuff Rate. Those numbers are in-contrast to an Irish defensive front that is 52nd in Line Yards, 76th in Power Success and 36th in Stuff Rate. Michigan ran all over Notre Dame two weeks ago.

The Midshipmen should not have an issue moving the ball with their option attack led by Malcolm Perry.

Malcolm Perry turned on the JETS ✈️ for a @navyfb TOUCHDOWN!

Bulls 0
Midshipmen 7 pic.twitter.com/WIK60T6Msv

— CBS Sports Network (@CBSSportsNet) October 19, 2019

Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly expressed how important it will be for the Irish to contain Perry. This is especially true when it comes to opponent territory.

Navy has been one of the best offenses all season in finishing drives. The Midshipmen are No. 1 in the country in red zone points per attempt. That will be trouble for a Notre Dame defense that is 128th in opponent red zone scoring percentage.

Look for Navy’s defense to pressure Ian Book all afternoon, as the service academy team fields a front that ranks 12th in sack rate. The Midshipmen are straight off a bye and will look for the outright upset.

The Pick: Navy +9 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

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