Florida vs. Miami Over/Under Reacting to Buyback from Sharp Bettors

Florida vs. Miami Over/Under Reacting to Buyback from Sharp Bettors article feature image
Credit:

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Dan Mullen

  • After plenty of line movement over the past month on tonight's Florida vs. Miami (7 p.m. ET, ESPN) over/under, sharps have finally bought back the number.
  • We analyze how professional money has shaped this total, and at exactly which numbers they've found value.

As has been the case with just about every available number for tonight’s two opening FBS matchups, the Florida vs. Miami total has gone on quite the roller-coaster ride since opening about a month ago.

Currently sitting at a consensus 46.5/47, it’s seen as high as 54 and as low as 45.5. Of course, sharps have had plenty to do with such drastic line movement.

After opening and remaining at 50.5 for several days, the total shot up to that high-water mark over the course of about 15-20 minutes earlier this month.

In what almost seems like a setup — based on what happened immediately afterward — sharps triggered two Sports Insights Bet Signals on the over, convincing oddsmakers to move this line against what’s been a popular under.

For the time being, it seemed that the over was going to be the clear smart play. That didn’t last very long.

By the end of that same night, the total was right back to its opener, and from there it was the under that had sharp bettors’ attention.

Between Aug. 6 and yesterday morning, the under drew six steam moves, which, along with 71% of bets and 78% of money, steadily brought the number all the way down to 45.5. Finally, it was time for some buyback.

On Friday evening, sharps hit the over at 45.5, triggered two more Bet Signals, and getting this number up to its current listing of 46.5.

Just as was the takeaway with the point spread on this game, it’s key to understand which numbers sharps are hitting when they’re making a bet.

There’s not always going to be a clear sharp side at the number available in the market, and until further action proves otherwise, oddsmakers may have finally found a nice settling ground with this total.