Peach Bowl Sharp Betting Picks: PRO Projections Show Georgia vs. Cincinnati Value

Peach Bowl Sharp Betting Picks: PRO Projections Show Georgia vs. Cincinnati Value article feature image
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Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Azeez Ojulari

  • Georgia is a big favorite over Cincinnati in the Peach Bowl on New Year's Day, but sharp bettors have had their eyes on the total.
  • Both our model projections and sharp action favor the over, which has moved a point so far.

Georgia vs. Cincinnati Odds

Georgia Odds -7.5
Cincinnati Odds +7.5
Over/Under 51.5
PRO Projection UGA -58 | O/U 54.7
Time 12 p.m. ET
TV ESPN

Sharps don’t seem to be wasting any time in 2021, as our PRO Report suggests they’ve made a move on Friday’s noon ET Peach Bowl between Georgia and Cincinnati.

And it’s not just professional action suggesting some value on the first kickoff of the year. Our model’s projection is right in line with the sharp play. So let’s take a look.

Note: Odds, data as of 7:15 p.m. ET Thursday.

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Georgia vs. Cincinnati Pick

The pros are banking on offense Friday afternoon, as their big bets have helped tick this total upward.

Sharp Action

As of Thursday night, 73% of bettors on this total have taken the over. And while that’s not surprising — most prefer to root for offense rather than defense — it does make it a bit difficult to tell if this number’s rise from its opener is a result of sharp action.

Thankfully, three Bet Signals on the over from Action Labs have revealed three separate instances of market movement caused specifically by sharp action, leaving no question as to at least one reason behind this move.

Sharp Action edge: Over

Big Money

Adding to that reason, the 73% of over bettors have generated 93% of money on the total. Of course, that’s a substantial monetary liability for sportsbooks to consider (though I’d expect both figures to regress a bit as kickoff approaches), but perhaps more importantly, the discrepancy between money and tickets reveals bigger bettors to be on the over.

And which bettors are likely to be making those bigger bets? Sharps.

Big Money edge: Over

Model Projection

Even following this line’s move from 50.5 to 51.5, our model still suggests there’s room to go.

It pegs the true total at 54.7, giving another field goal’s worth of value to the over at the currently offered number.

Model Projection edge: Over

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