Heisman Trophy Odds, Picks: Dillon Gabriel, Cameron Ward the Top Transfer Candidates for 2024
Brian Bahr/Getty Images. Pictured: New Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel.
It's impossible to ignore the impact that the transfer portal has had on college football.
This past season, quarterback Michael Penix Jr. led Washington to a berth in the College Football Playoff National Championship while finishing second in the Heisman voting. Meanwhile, Oregon quarterback Bo Nix finished third, and LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels took home the award.
Daniels, Penix and Nix are all now candidates to hear their name called in the first round of this April's NFL Draft. However, that's not all they have in common. None of them began their careers at their respective schools.
In fact, Daniels joined a long list of transfer quarterbacks to take home college football's highest individual honor.
Five of the last seven Heisman Trophy winners have been transfers, and all have been quarterbacks. While Daniels, Penix and Nix all put up gaudy numbers, they wouldn't have been Heisman finalists without strong supporting casts.
Daniels had two of the nation's best receivers at his disposal in Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr.
Penix landed at Washington because his head coach, Kalen DeBoer, was Indiana's offensive coordinator while he was in Bloomington. At Washington, Penix was a perfect fit in DeBoer's pass-happy system that also attracted three of the nation's top receivers in Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan and Ja'Lynn Polk.
At Oregon, Nix had receivers Troy Franklin and Tez Johnson as his top targets, while Bucky Irving and Jordan James played a key role in the backfield.
Additionally, LSU, Oregon and Washington were three of the four finalists for the Joe Moore Award — given ti the nation's top offensive line — with the Huskies taking home the award.
With that in mind, I'm not only looking at transfers that are capable of winning the Heisman this season, but also situations that set them up for success Let's start with Nix's replacement in Eugene.
All odds via FanDuel as of Wednesday, Jan. 31.
Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel
Heisman Odds: +1000
The third time may be the charm in Gabriel's quest for a Heisman Trophy.
Gabriel began his career at UCF and spent the last two years at Oklahoma. He already has four seasons with over 3,000 yards passing and 25 touchdown passes.
Last season was the best of his career, as he completed 69% of his passes while throwing for 3,660 yards, 30 touchdowns and six interceptions. For good measure, he also added 373 yards and 12 scores on the ground.
By comparison, Gabriel was far more productive than Nix was in the SEC. At Auburn, Nix completed 59.4% of his passes and threw 39 touchdowns and 16 interceptions across three seasons. However, he tore up the Pac-12 and accounted for 4,742 total yards and 51 touchdowns against just three interceptions last season.
Gabriel will have big shoes replacing Nix, and he will have to do so in a tougher defensive league with the Ducks joining the Big Ten.
However, Jim Harbaugh will be on the sidelines for the Los Angeles Chargers next fall, leaving quarterback uncertainty behind in Ann Arbor. Joining Oregon in the Big Ten will be arch-rival Washington, but the Huskies will be experiencing a great deal of turnover.
Oregon head coach Dan Lanning will no longer have to deal with Penix or DeBoer, who he has gone 0-3 against over the last two seasons. The Ducks also get Ohio State at home.
Considering those factors, I have Oregon as my favorite to win the Big Ten in its first season as a member.
In addition to Nix, Irving and Franklin are also moving on to the NFL. However, James and Noah Whittington give Oregon a potent 1-2 combo in the backfield.
At receiver, Johnson returns after a 1,000-yard season, along with Traeshon Holden. Former five-star Jurrion Dickey could take a big leap in his second season in Eugene, and he'll be joined by another five-star in the transfer portal in Evan Stewart. The Texas A&M transfer has over 90 receptions for over 1,100 yards and eight touchdowns in his first two collegiate seasons.
In Terrance Ferguson and Patrick Herbert, Oregon will return its top two tight ends. Joining them on the line of scrimmage will be returning starters on the offensive line, led by standout left tackle Josh Conerly Jr.
Nix entered the Pac-12 Championship as the betting favorite to win the Heisman but finished third after the Huskies' upset.
With a loaded supporting cast around him, Gabriel may not only help Oregon win the Big Ten, but he may become the first Oregon quarterback to win the Heisman since Marcus Mariota in 2014.
Miami QB Cameron Ward
Heisman Odds: +2000
Like Gabriel, Cameron Ward will be at his third stop when he takes the field in Coral Gables this fall.
He lit it up at Incarnate Word in 2021, throwing for 4,648 yards, 47 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He was also productive in the Pac-12, throwing for nearly 7,000 yards, 48 touchdowns and 16 interceptions while completing 65.5% of his passes in two seasons at Washington State.
However, Ward was overshadowed by other passers in the Pac-12. It didn't help that he was sacked 84 times over the last two seasons. Washington State also ranked 95th in Havoc Allowed. That won't be an issue at Miami.
In 13 games, Miami allowed just 16 sacks last season. It returns three starters from that unit in left tackle Jalen Rivers, right guard Anez Cooper and right tackle Francis Mauigoa. Rivers earned second-team All-ACC honors a season ago, while Cooper and Mauigoa were All-ACC honorable mentions.
That's particularly noticeable for Mauigoa, who was a true freshman last season.
Mauigoa was a five-star in the class of 2023, along with tackle Samson Okunlola. With another year's development, Okunlola could factor into the mix at left tackle, kicking Rivers inside to left guard and giving Miami another stalwart up front.
Running back Mark Fletcher is another highly touted true sophomore that Miami is very high on after he ran for 514 yards and five touchdowns as a freshman. Plus, Henry Parrish Jr. and Ajay Allen combined for 986 yards and 11 touchdowns last season as well.
At receiver, Miami returns two of the ACC's most productive receivers in Xavier Restrepo and Jacolby George.
Restrepo posted 1,092 receiving yards and six touchdowns, while George recorded 864 yards and eight scores on over 15 yards per catch.
Additionally, Miami has a talented group of young receivers waiting to emerge in Ray Ray Joseph, Robby Washington, JoJo Trader and Ny Carr.
Now, an unwritten rule of the Heisman Trophy is that the winner must play on an elite team and likely win at least 10 games. If not, they must have a truly transcendent season, like Lamar Jackson in 2016 or Daniels last season.
Miami has won 10 games just once in the last 20 years, but it may not be that far away with better quarterback play.
Last season, Tyler Van Dyke threw seven touchdowns and 11 interceptions in Miami's final seven regular-season games. The Hurricanes went 2-5 in that stretch with three losses by a touchdown or less. The U ultimately finished 7-6, but a more favorable schedule may lead to 10 wins anyway.
In the nonconference, Miami will not leave the Sunshine State, beginning its season at an old rival in Florida. In ACC play, Clemson, North Carolina and NC State drop off the schedule after Miami went 1-2 against those teams last season.
It does travel to Louisville, and as usual, the biggest game on the Canes' schedule is Florida State at Hard Rock Stadium. The Seminoles will be formidable once again but will be replacing a lot of talent from last season's ACC Championship group.
A big performance from Ward in what will be a nationally televised game against the rival Seminoles could put the Wazzu transfer in a solid position to win the Heisman. At 20-1, he's worth a flier in the offseason.
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