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The Missouri Tigers take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Starkville, Mississippi, on Saturday, Sept. 26. Kickoff is set for 7:45 p.m. ET on the SEC Network.
Mississippi State is favored by -6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -215. Missouri, meanwhile, enters as a +6.5 underdog and is +176 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 58.5 total points.
Here’s my Missouri vs. Mississippi State prediction and college football pick for Saturday, September 26.
Missouri vs Mississippi State Prediction
- Missouri vs. Mississippi State Pick: Missouri +6.5
My Mississippi State vs. Missouri best bet is on the Tigers to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page. For more college football picks and analysis, download the Action Network app today.
Missouri vs Mississippi State Odds
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -115 | 58.5 -118o / -104u | +176 |
| Mississippi State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -105 | 58.5 -118o / -104u | -215 |
- Missouri vs Mississippi State point spread: Mississippi State -6.5 (-105), Missouri +6.5 (-115)
- Missouri vs Mississippi State over/under: 58.5 (-118o / -104u)
- Missouri vs Mississippi State moneyline: Missouri +176, Mississippi State -215
Missouri vs Mississippi State College Football Preview
Missouri Tigers Betting Preview: Solid Start
Fresh off an emotional road victory over rival Kansas, a return home for a date with Troy may have been a letdown spot for Missouri.
It was a 27-point favorite but trailed 10-0 in the first quarter. A 68-yard punt return for a touchdown by DaMarion Fowlkes sparked a 24-0 run, and the Tigers went on to win 27-17 to improve to 3-0 to begin this season.
Fowlkes is part of a trio of four-star sophomore wide receivers for the Tigers.
While he's still carving out more opportunities on offense, he's making a name for himself on special teams, while Donovan Olugbode has emerged as WR1, leading the team with 22 targets.
The sophomore has two 100-yard games to begin this season and has racked up 16 receptions for 259 yards and four touchdowns.
Ole Miss transfer Cayden Lee has nearly identical numbers but three fewer yards and two fewer touchdowns.
They've soaked up most of the targets from fellow Ole Miss transfer quarterback Austin Simmons, who has 652 passing yards and eight touchdowns to begin the year.
Simmons brings an explosive element to the offense, averaging 9.6 yards per attempt for his career. But turnovers are something to watch.
At Ole Miss, Simmons threw four interceptions in his first two starts and was benched, opening the door for the magic of Trinidad Chambliss. However, he has yet to throw an interception in his first 68 pass attempts as a Tiger.
If Simmons can help the Tigers stay on schedule and be efficient, it sets up a strong running game, which is the backbone of head coach Eli Drinkwitz's offense.
While last year's breakout star, Ahmad Hardy, has yet to play this season as he recovers from an offseason gunshot wound, Jamal Roberts has handled RB1 duties well thus far. He has two 100-yard performances and is averaging 100 yards per game on the nose.
He could see a lot of work this week if the goal is to keep Mississippi State's high-powered offense off the field.
The Tigers lost a few notable pieces on their defense, with defensive end Zion Young off to the NFL and Damon Wilson II transferring to Miami.
However, sophomore Daeden Hopkins is on the verge of emerging into stardom. He ranks third in the SEC with three sacks while leading the SEC with 14 pressures.
Senior safety Santana Banner is tied for the team lead with 26 tackles after a career-high 16 tackles last week.
The Tigers rank eighth nationally in Success Rate allowed, 12th in Passing Success Rate allowed and seventh in Havoc. They'll need their defense to travel this week.
Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Preview: Super Kamario
Mississippi State entered this season with a preseason win total of 4.5. After winning a pick'em at Minnesota convincingly and picking up an outright victory as an underdog at South Carolina, Mississippi State is well on its way to clearing that total at 3-0.
The biggest reason has been the play of star sophomore quarterback Kamario Taylor.
Through his first three games, Taylor is completing 68% of his passes with 832 passing yards, 11 touchdown passes, and one interception while adding 178 yards and another score on the ground.
The Bulldogs are averaging 47 points per game, and Taylor has the third-shortest odds to win the Heisman. However, his outstanding play has masked some of the Bulldogs' flaws, even offensively.
Mississippi State ranks 74th in Success Rate and 117th in Havoc allowed, but 17th in Passing Explosiveness and 22nd in Points Per Opportunity.
Taylor has gone 7-of-15 for 252 yards and five touchdowns on passes of 20-plus yards.
A regular target of those deep balls has been Anthony Evans III. The senior has 20 catches for 294 yards and three touchdowns to lead the team in all categories.
Defensively, the Bulldogs are allowing 20 points per game, but they did allow 34 at South Carolina last week.
More concerning is the fact that they're 116th in Rushing Success Rate allowed, 123rd in Passing Explosiveness allowed, and 110th in Havoc.
Last week, the defense put Mississippi State in 16-0 and 23-14 deficits before Taylor brought them back for good.
The Bulldogs' schedule will get more difficult over the next few weeks, starting with the Tigers. We'll find out if the defense can hold up if Taylor has an average or worse performance.
Missouri vs Mississippi State Pick, Betting Analysis
In a few short weeks, Missouri has gone from being a four-point favorite in this game to a 1.5-point underdog to now nearly a touchdown underdog.
This is partially because of Taylor's rise and partially because Mississippi State is covering by an average margin of 18 points per game.
Mississippi State may be one of the nation's most underrated teams, and it may still be underrated by me because I believe this line is too many points.
Since Missouri joined the SEC, these teams have split their four meetings.
However, Missouri has won the two head-to-head meetings between Jeff Lebby and Drinkwitz: 39-20 in 2024 and 49-27 last season.
It has won the last two meetings handily and now just needs to stay within a touchdown to secure a cover.
This year's Tigers have an advantage in Havoc and Success Rate on both sides of the ball. Mississippi State may have the best player on the field in Taylor, but I'm not sure that it has the best team, even at home.
At +6.5, I'll be backing the Tigers to cover, and I don't mind a sprinkle on the moneyline as well.
Pick: Missouri +6.5 (Play to +4.5)
